Pathway to meeting Canada’s 2030 target

This bar graph shows the pathway to meeting Canada’s target for greenhouse gas emission reductions by the year 2030. The top of the bar reflects Canada’s December 2016 greenhouse gas emissions projections for the year 2030 which is estimated to be 742 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases, while the bottom of the bar shows Canada’s 2030 target of 30% below 2005 levels, which is equal to 523 megatonnes. Note that reductions from carbon pricing are built into the following sections of the bar graph depending whether they are implemented, announced, or included in the Pan-Canadian Framework.

The top section of the bar reflects emissions reductions from measures announced as of November 1, 2016, including regulations for heavy-duty vehicles, hydrofluorocarbons, and methane for the oil and gas sector.  Provincial climate change measures are also reflected in this section, including British Columbia’s Climate Leadership Plan, and Saskatchewan’s plans to increase renewables for electricity generation. This is projected to bring Canada’s 2030 greenhouse gas emissions to 653 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases, down 89 megatonnes from the December 2016 emissions projections.  This bar also assumes purchases of carbon credits from California by regulated entities under Quebec and Ontario’s cap-and-trade systems that are or will be linked through the Western Climate Initiative.

The middle section of the bar reflects measures presented in the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change including for: electricity, including phasing out coal-traditional coal-fired electricity by 2030; buildings; transportation, including the clean fuel standard; and industry. This is projected to bring Canada’s 2030 greenhouse gas emissions to 567 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases, down an additional 86 megatonnes from the measures announced as of November 1, 2016.

The bottom section of the bar reflects reductions to come from additional measures, such as public transit, green infrastructure, innovation, and stored carbon in forests, soil, and wetlands.  This is projected to bring Canada’s 2030 greenhouse gas emissions to 523 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases, down an additional 44 megatonnes from the measures announced as of November 1, 2016, and as found in the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change. This bottom section meets Canada’s target of 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.

• Reductions of 89 Mt (from 742 to 653 Mt)^{Footnote 1}
  Emissions reductions from announced measures as of November 1^st, 2016, including regulations (e.g., HFCs, heavy duty vehicles, methane) and provincial measures (e.g., BC Climate Leadership Plan, SK renewables target) and international cap-and-trade credits
• Reductions of 86 Mt (from 653 to 567 Mt) Emissions reductions from measures in the Pan-Canadian Framework, including measures for electricity (coal phase-out by 2030), buildings, transportation (federal clean fuel standard) and industry
• Reductions of 44 Mt (from 567 to 523 Mt) Emissions reductions to come from additional measures such as public transit and green infrastructure, technology and innovation, and stored carbon (forests, soils, wetlands)

Note: Reductions from carbon pricing are built into the different elements depending on whether they are implemented, announced or included in the Pan-Canadian Framework. The path forward on pricing will be determined by the review to be completed by early 2022.