Progress towards greenhouse gas emissions target

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Canada's annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to be between 697 and 790 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2 eq) in 2030, without taking into account the contribution of the land use, land-use change and forestry sector.

According to Canada's 2016 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reference Case, GHG emissions are projected to be 742 Mt CO2 eq in 2030. These projections are based on historical data and actions taken by governments, consumers and businesses up to 2014, as well as the future impacts of policies and measures put in place as of November 1, 2016.

Oil and gas prices and economic growth are key drivers of GHG emissions trends in Canada. Because these drivers can be quite volatile, sensitivity analysis is presented through alternative scenarios (Low and High), reflecting different assumptions about oil and natural gas prices and production as well as different rates of economic growth.

Historical greenhouse gas emissions and projections to 2030 with policies and measures as of November 1, 2016, Canada, 2005 to 2030

Line chart showing GHG emissions and projections for the years 2005 to 2030 - Long description below.
Long description

The line chart shows the greenhouse gas emissions and projections for the years 2005 to 2030. The line between years 2005 to 2014 shows historical emissions. Starting in 2015, the middle line represents the reference scenario, and the bottom and top lines represent alternative scenarios. The Canada's target for 2030 of 523 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent is also shown.

Data for this chart
Historical greenhouse gas emissions and projections to 2030 with policies and measures as of November 1, 2016, Canada, 2005 to 2030
Year Historical emissions (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)Footnote [A] Reference scenario (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) High emissions scenario (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) Low emissions scenario (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) Canada's target (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)
2005 747 - - - -
2006 738 - - - -
2007 758 - - - -
2008 739 - - - -
2009 696 - - - -
2010 706 - - - -
2011 710 - - - -
2012 718 - - - -
2013 731 - - - -
2014 732 - - - -
2015 - 723 725 725 -
2016 - 722 723 722 -
2017 - 727 731 727 -
2018 - 731 740 726 -
2019 - 733 747 726 -
2020 - 731 747 720 -
2021 - 734 752 718 -
2022 - 739 761 720 -
2023 - 746 770 723 -
2024 - 750 776 723 -
2025 - 756 786 725 -
2026 - 759 792 725 -
2027 - 757 796 720 -
2028 - 755 799 717 -
2029 - 755 804 715 -
2030 - 742 790 697 523

Download data file (Excel/CSV; 1.57 KB)

How this indicator was calculated

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2016) Canada's 2016 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reference Case. Environment and Climate Change Canada (2016) National Inventory Report 1990-2014: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada.

The future level of GHG emissions in Canada depends on a number of factors, including the pace of expected economic and population growth, the development of energy markets and their influence on prices, technological change, consumer behaviour, and policies aimed at emissions reductions.

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Effective action on climate change

This indicator supports the measurement of progress towards the long-term goal of the 2016-2019 Federal Sustainable Development Strategy: A low-carbon economy contributes to limiting global average temperature rise to well below two degrees Celsius and supports efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

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