Progress towards greenhouse gas emissions target
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Canada's annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to be between 697 and 790 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2 eq) in 2030, without taking into account the contribution of the land use, land-use change and forestry sector.
According to Canada's 2016 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reference Case, GHG emissions are projected to be 742 Mt CO2 eq in 2030. These projections are based on historical data and actions taken by governments, consumers and businesses up to 2014, as well as the future impacts of policies and measures put in place as of November 1, 2016.
Oil and gas prices and economic growth are key drivers of GHG emissions trends in Canada. Because these drivers can be quite volatile, sensitivity analysis is presented through alternative scenarios (Low and High), reflecting different assumptions about oil and natural gas prices and production as well as different rates of economic growth.
Historical greenhouse gas emissions and projections to 2030 with policies and measures as of November 1, 2016, Canada, 2005 to 2030
The line chart shows the greenhouse gas emissions and projections for the years 2005 to 2030. The line between years 2005 to 2014 shows historical emissions. Starting in 2015, the middle line represents the reference scenario, and the bottom and top lines represent alternative scenarios. The Canada's target for 2030 of 523 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent is also shown.
Data for this chart
|Year||Historical emissions (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)Footnote [A]||Reference scenario (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)||High emissions scenario (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)||Low emissions scenario (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)||Canada's target (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent)|
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Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2016) Canada's 2016 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reference Case. Environment and Climate Change Canada (2016) National Inventory Report 1990-2014: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada.
The future level of GHG emissions in Canada depends on a number of factors, including the pace of expected economic and population growth, the development of energy markets and their influence on prices, technological change, consumer behaviour, and policies aimed at emissions reductions.
- National Greenhouse Gas Emissions
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions per Person and per Unit Gross Domestic Product
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Province and Territory
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Large Facilities
- Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
- Carbon Dioxide Emissions from a Consumption Perspective
Effective action on climate change
This indicator supports the measurement of progress towards the long-term goal of the 2016-2019 Federal Sustainable Development Strategy: A low-carbon economy contributes to limiting global average temperature rise to well below two degrees Celsius and supports efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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