Conditional Release Decisions: Outcome Rates

Official Title: Performance Monitoring Report 2017-2018, Conditional Release Decisions: Outcome Rates
From: Parole Board of Canada

Outcome Rates

Tables 119-152

Outcome rates provide information on the performance of offenders on conditional release from the start of the supervision period until the end of the supervision period. Supervision periods end in one of three ways:

Successful completion^{Footnote 1}–supervision periods that are completed without a breach of condition or a new offence.

Revocation for breach of condition–a positive intervention, which reduces the risk of reoffending.

Revocation with offence–a negative end to the supervision period, which results in a new conviction^{Footnote 2}.

The factors influencing outcomes are diverse and complex. However, there are strong and persistent indicators that offenders released on parole as a result of a rigorous risk assessment are more likely to successfully complete their supervision periods than offenders released on statutory release. This is precisely how parole contributes to public safety.

In reviewing the outcome rate information, it should be noted that the number of revocations with offence will often fluctuate higher during the 12 to 18 months after a fiscal year ends because outstanding charges often take that long to be resolved by the courts. The Parole Board of Canada adjusts its revocation with offence rates when offenders are convicted for new offences that occurred during their supervision period.

Figure 24. Successful Completion Rates on Federal Conditional Release

*Includes determinate sentences only.

• In 2017/18, the successful completion rates increased on federal day parole (to 92%), federal full parole (to 91%) and remained the same on statutory release (at 67%) when compared to the previous year.
• When compared with the successful completion rates of full parole supervision periods, the successful completion rates of statutory release supervision periods were not only significantly lower, but the statutory release supervision periods were shorter. Over the last five years, 46% of all successfully completed statutory releases were less than six months compared with less than one percent of successfully completed full parole supervision periods. The majority of successfully completed supervision periods on full parole (84%) were for periods of more than one year.

Figure 25. Revocation for Breach of Condition Rates on Federal Conditional Release

*Includes determinate sentences only.

• Over the last five years, the revocation for breach of condition rates on federal day and full parole, as well as on statutory release have been generally decreasing.
• Offenders released on statutory release were far more likely to have had their releases revoked because of a breach of condition than offenders on day parole or full parole during each of the last five years.

Figure 26. Total Revocation with Offence Rates on Federal Conditional Release

*Includes determinate sentences only.

• Over the last five years, the total revocation with offence rates decreased for offenders on federal day and full parole, as well on statutory release. During the same period, the rates for statutory release were on average eight times higher than the rates on federal day parole and three times higher than the rates on federal full parole.

Figure 27. Revocation with Violent Offence Rates on Federal Conditional Release

*Includes determinate sentences only.

• Over the last five years, the revocation with violent offence rates were, on average, ten times higher for offenders on statutory release than for offenders on federal day parole and three times higher than for offenders on federal full parole. The rates of revocation with a violent offence on statutory release have been declining in the last five years.
• When comparing the rates, it should be noted that the revocation with violent offence rates on statutory release were not just higher than those for full parole supervision periods, they also occurred earlier. Seventeen percent (17%) of statutory release supervision periods revoked with a violent offence between 2013/14 and 2017/18 were revoked in the first three months, while no full parole supervision period was revoked with a violent offence in the first three months during the same time period.
• Of the federal day parole supervision periods that had been revoked with a violent offence in the last five years, 6% were revoked in the first three months. The average length of day parole supervision periods, which were revoked with a violent offence in the last five years, was under five months.

Outcomes on provincial day and full parole supervision periods demonstrated a similar picture to the outcomes of federal day and full parole.

Figure 28. Successful Completion Rates on Provincial Parole

• Over the last five years, the successful completion rates for offenders on provincial day and full parole have been fluctuating. In 2017/18, the successful completion rate decreased one percentage point on provincial day parole (to 84%) and increased four percentage points on provincial full parole (to 96%).

Figure 29. Revocation for Breach of Condition Rates on Provincial Parole

• In four of the last five years, provincial day parolees were more likely to have their paroles revoked due to a breach of condition than provincial full parolees.

Figure 30. Total Revocation with Offence Rates on Provincial Parole

• Over the last five years, the total revocation with offence rates for provincial day parole were relatively stable averaging 1% (14 offences in total), while the rates for provincial full parole averaged 0.6% (three offences in total).

Figure 31. Revocation with Violent Offence Rates on Provincial Parole

• Very few provincial offenders had their paroles revoked because of violent reoffending during the last five years. Five offenders on provincial day parole and one offender on provincial full parole have been convicted of a violent offence in the last five years.

Outcome on Day Parole

Federal Day Parole

• In 2017/18, the successful completion rate (without any breaches of special conditions or reoffending) on federal day parole increased 0.4 of a percentage point to 92.2% compared to 2016/17.
• The successful completion rate on federal regular day parole increased slightly to 92.2% (+0.5%) in 2017/18, while the rate on federal day parole APR decreased to 93.3% (‑4.4%).
• The successful completion rate on federal regular day parole for offenders serving determinate sentences for non-violent offences (schedule II and non-scheduled offences) was on average seven percentage points lower when averaged over the last five years (between 2013/14 and 2017/18) than the rate for federal day parole APR (90% and 97% respectively). It should be noted that APR numbers have been diminishing since 2010/11 when the APR-related provisions were rescinded.
• In 2017/18, offenders serving sentences for schedule I-sex offences had the highest successful completion rate (97%) on federal day parole, while offenders serving sentences for schedule I-non-sex offences had the lowest (90%).
• Over the last five years, Indigenous offenders were the least likely to successfully complete federal day parole (87%), while Asian offenders were the most likely (96%).
• Over the last five years, the successful completion rates on federal day parole for male offenders was slightly higher than for female offenders (91%; 90%).
• In 2017/18, the successful completion rate on federal day parole was the highest in the Ontario region (95%) and the lowest in the Atlantic region (86%).
• The rate of violent reoffending on federal day parole has been very low in the last five years, averaging 0.1%. Offenders serving sentences for schedule I-non-sex offences accounted for almost half of all revocations with a violent offence on federal day parole (11 out of 25). One federal sex offender had his day parole revoked with a violent offence in the last five years.
• In the last five years, Asian and White offenders averaged a 0.2% revocation with a violent offence rate, compared to 0.1% for Indigenous and Black offenders. There were no revocations with a violent offence for offenders in the Other category. White offenders accounted for the majority of all revocations with a violent offence on federal day parole (19 out of 25).
• The revocation with a violent offence rate on federal day parole in the last five years was 0.2% for male offenders. No female offender had their day parole supervision period revoked with a violent offence in the last five years.
• By region, the rates of violent reoffending on federal day parole have been fluctuating in the last five years. Three regions reported higher revocation with violent offence rates than the national average: the Atlantic (0.3%), Quebec (0.2%) and Pacific (0.2%) regions. The Prairie region reported a rate of zero (two violent offences). The Ontario region had a rate of 0.1%, the same as the national average.

Provincial Day Parole

• In 2017/18, the successful completion rate on provincial day parole decreased to 84% (from 85%) compared to the previous year. The rates decreased in the Atlantic (to 77%), Prairie (to 90%) and Pacific (to 83%) regions.
• Over the last five years (between 2013/14 and 2017/18), offenders serving sentences for schedule I-sex offences reported the highest successful completion rates on provincial day parole (94%), while offenders serving sentences for non-scheduled offences, the lowest (80%).
• The rates of violent reoffending on provincial day parole have been very low in the last five years: two offenders serving sentences for schedule I-non-sex offences and three offenders serving sentences for non-scheduled offences had their day paroles revoked because of a violent offence in the last five years.

Outcome on Full Parole

Outcome on full parole is measured separately for offenders serving determinate sentences and for offenders serving indeterminate sentences. Indeterminate sentences are considered ‘successful completions’ for statistical purposes when the offender dies. For this reason, these cases are shown separately from those of offenders serving determinate sentences.

Federal Full Parole: Determinate Sentences

• In 2017/18, the successful completion rate (without any breaches of special conditions or re-offending) on federal full parole for offenders serving determinate sentences increased 0.9 of a percentage point (to 90.5%) compared to 2016/17.
• Over the last five years (between 2013/14 and 2017/18), the successful completion rate on federal full parole was on average 1.3 percentage points higher for non-violent offenders released on federal full parole APR than those non-violent offenders released on regular full parole (89.7%; 88.4%).
• The successful completion rate improved for all offence types over the last five years. Offenders serving sentences for schedule I-sex offences reported the highest successful completion rate (93%) and offenders serving sentences for schedule I‑non‑sex offences, the lowest (86%).
• Over the last five years, Indigenous offenders reported the lowest successful completion rate on federal full parole (81%), while Asian offenders, the highest (92%).
• Over the last five years, female offenders reported a higher successful completion rate on federal full parole (91%) than male offenders (88%).
• In 2017/18, the successful completion rate decreased in the Quebec region (to 93%), increased in the Atlantic (to 84%), Ontario (to 93%) and Pacific (to 93%) regions and remained unchanged in the Prairie region (at 89%) when compared to the previous year.
• The rates of violent reoffending on federal full parole have been decreasing in the last five years, averaging 0.5%. Offenders serving sentences for schedule I-non-sex offences accounted for almost half of all revocations with a violent offence on federal full parole in the last five years (12 out of 25).
• Over the last five years, Indigenous offenders reported the highest revocation with a violent offence rate on federal full parole (1.5%) compared to White (0.5%) and Black (0.5%) offenders. No Asian offenders and offenders in the Other category had their federal full paroles revoked because of a violent offence in the last five years.
• No female offenders serving determinate sentences on federal full parole had their supervision periods revoked because of a violent offence in the last five years. 
• By region, the rate of violent reoffending has been fluctuating in the last five years. The five-year average rate has been the highest in the Pacific region (0.8%) and the lowest in the Ontario region (0.4%), the national average being 0.5%.

Federal Full Parole: Indeterminate Sentences

Reporting on outcomes of federal full parole supervision periods for offenders serving indeterminate sentences was reviewed in detail and now only includes supervision periods which started on or after April 1, 1994. This differs from previous reports, where all federal full parole supervision periods were tracked that ended between 1994/95 and the report’s year-end regardless of whether they started before or after April 1, 1994. The current approach is methodologically more rigorous.

• Between 1994/95 and 2017/18, 1,894 offenders serving indeterminate sentences had been released on full parole, completing a total of 2,390 federal full parole supervision periods. As of April 8, 2018, 55% of the supervision periods were still active (supervised), 5% of the supervision periods that were active were for offenders who had been deported or extradited, 14% had ended because the offender had died while on parole, 18% were revoked for a breach of condition, 6% were revoked as the result of a non‑violent offence, and 3% were revoked as the result of a violent offence.
• The average length of federal full parole supervision periods for offenders serving indeterminate sentences was 7.8 years.

Figure 32. Revocation Rates on Federal Full Parole for Offenders Serving Indeterminate Sentences (between 1994/95 and 2017/18)

• Over the last 24 years, the majority of revocations for breach of condition and revocations with offence for offenders serving indeterminate sentences on full parole occurred within the first five years of the federal full parole supervision periods, and the number of revocations gradually decreases afterward. Thus, the likelihood of having a supervision period revoked drops significantly the longer the offender is on full parole.
• Over the last 24 years, offenders serving indeterminate sentences on full parole were 1.6 times more likely to have died than to have had their supervision periods revoked for having committed a new offence.
• Over the same time period, offenders serving indeterminate sentences on full parole were 5.1 times more likely to have died than to have had their supervision periods revoked because of a violent offence. The ratio increases for those offenders who were on full parole for over five years (6.7).

Figure 33. Comparison of Revocation Rates on Federal Full Parole (between 1994/95 and 2017/18)

Note: Between 1994/95 and 2017/18, the average length of full parole supervision periods for offenders serving determinate sentences was 22.9 months compared to 7.8 years for offenders serving indeterminate sentences.

• Compared to offenders serving determinate sentences on full parole, offenders serving indeterminate sentences on full parole were 12% more likely to have had their supervision periods revoked because of a breach of condition, and 42% more likely to have had their supervision periods revoked because of a new violent offence for federal supervision periods completed between 1994/95 and 2017/18.
• However, offenders serving indeterminate sentences on full parole were 33% less likely to have had their supervision periods revoked because of a new non-violent offence than offenders serving determinate sentences during the same time period.
• Over the last 24 years (between 1994/95 and 2017/18), 64 federal full parole supervision periods were revoked with a violent offence for offenders serving indeterminate sentences, compared to 671 federal full paroles revoked with a violent offence for offenders serving determinate sentences.

Provincial Full Parole

• Over the last five years, the successful completion rate on provincial full parole averaged 91%. The rate was 96% in 2017/18.
• The successful completion rate on provincial full parole increased in the Atlantic (to 98%) and Prairie (to 100%) regions and decreased in the Pacific region (to 91%) in 2017/18 compared to the previous year.
• Very few provincial offenders have had their full paroles revoked because of a violent offence. Over the last five years, one White male offender serving a sentence for a non‑scheduled offence had his provincial full parole revoked with a violent offence.

Outcome on Statutory Release

• In 2017/18, the successful completion rate on statutory release increased negligibly (+0.1%) to 67% compared to 2016/17.
• In 2017/18, the successful completion rate on statutory release increased for offenders serving sentences for schedule I-sex offences  (to 85%), the highest rate, and for offenders serving sentences for schedule II offences (to 77%). The rate decreased for offenders serving sentences for schedule I-non-sex offences (to 61%), the lowest rate. The rate remained the same for offenders serving sentences for non-scheduled offences (at 65%).
• Over the last five years (between 2013/14 and 2017/18), Indigenous offenders reported the lowest successful completion rate on statutory release (54%) and Asian offenders, the highest (78%).
• Female offenders were more likely to successfully complete their statutory releases in the last five years (69%) than male offenders (64%).
• In 2017/18, the successful completion rates increased in the Atlantic (to 64%), Ontario (to 78%) and Pacific (to 69%) regions and decreased in the Quebec (to 73%) and Prairie (to 57%) regions.

Figure 34. Revocation with Violent Offence Rates on Statutory Release

• The revocation with violent offence rates on statutory release have been fluctuating in the last five years for offenders serving sentences for schedule II offences under one percent, the lowest rate.
• Offenders serving sentences for schedule I-non-sex offences had the highest revocation with a violent offence rate in each of the last five years. They accounted for 70% of all revocations with violent offence on statutory release in the last five years.
• Over the last five years, Indigenous offenders had the highest revocation with violent offence rate on statutory release (1.8%), and offenders in the Other category, the lowest (0.4%).
• Male offenders were more likely to be revoked with a violent offence on statutory release in the last five years (1.5%) than female offenders (0.6%).
• Over the last five years, the revocation with violent offence rates were above the national average of 1.5% in the Quebec (2.0%) and Pacific (1.8%) regions and below the national average in the Atlantic (1.3%) and Ontario (0.8%) regions. The rate in the Prairie region was the same as the national average.

Figure 35. Successful Completion Rates on Statutory Release With and Without a Prior Day and/or Full Parole on the Same Sentence

Over the last ten years (between 2008/09 and 2017/18), the successful completion rate on statutory release for offenders who had a day and/or full parole supervision period prior to a statutory release supervision period on the same sentence was on average 14% higher than the rate for offenders who had no prior parole supervision period (73% v. 59%).

This finding is applicable, although to a different extent, to all offence types, races and genders.

The possible explanation for this is two-fold:

1. Offenders that had a day or full parole supervision period prior to statutory release had been assessed by the Board as not presenting an undue risk, which is why they were granted a release on parole.
2. So even when their parole was revoked, these offenders had benefited from their time in the community (i.e. programs and support in the community) and were thus more likely to successfully complete statutory release.

The difference between offenders serving sentences on statutory release who had a prior day and/or full parole supervision period on the same sentence and those who did not is also significant for the revocation with violent offence rates. Over the last ten years (between 2008/09 and 2017/18), the rate of violent reoffending on statutory release for offenders who had a prior day and/or full parole supervision period prior to a statutory release supervision period on the same sentence was 1.3% compared to 2.2% for those offenders who did not have a prior day and/or full parole supervision period. While a 0.9 percentage point difference seems small, it is nevertheless meaningful: it stands for 752 more violent offences that were reported for offenders on statutory release who did not have a prior day and/or full parole supervision period compared to those offenders who did.

Table 119. Outcome Rates on Federal Conditional Release

Outcome Rates on Day Parole

Federal Day Parole

Table 120. Outcome Rates for Federal Day Parole

Table 121. Outcome Rates for Federal Day Parole by Regular and APR

Table 122. Outcome Rates for Federal Day Parole with Determinate Sentences for Non-Violent Offences by Regular and APR (from 2013/14 to 2017/18)

Note: Includes determinate sentences for schedule II and non-scheduled offences.

Table 123. Outcome Rates for Federal Day Parole by Offence Type (%)

Table 124. Outcome Rates for Federal Day Parole by Indigenous and Race

Table 125. Outcome Rates for Federal Day Parole by Gender

Table 126. Outcome Rates for Federal Day Parole by Region

Provincial Day Parole

Table 127. Outcome Rates for Provincial Day Parole

Table 128. Outcomes Rates for Provincial Day Parole By Region

Note: The case in the Ontario region was a case of a young offender sentenced under the provisions of the Youth Criminal Justice Act.

Table 129. Outcome Rates for Provincial Day Parole by Offence Type (from 2013/14 to 2017/18)

Table 130. Outcome Rates for Provincial Day Parole by Indigenous and Race (from 2013/14 to 2017/18)

Table 131. Outcome Rates for Provincial Day Parole by Gender (from 2013/14 to 2017/18)

Outcome Rates on Full Parole

Federal Full Parole: Determinate Sentences

Table 132. Outcome Rates for Federal Full Parole with Determinate Sentences

Table 133. Outcome Rates for Federal Full Parole with Determinate Sentences by Regular and APR

Table 134. Outcome Rates for Federal Full Parole with Determinate Sentences for Non-Violent Offences by Regular and APR (from 2013/14 to 2017/18)

Note: Includes determinate sentences for schedule II and non-scheduled offences.

Table 135. Outcome Rates for Federal Full Parole with Determinate Sentences by Offence Type (%)

Table 136. Outcome Rates for Federal Full Parole with Determinate Sentences by Indigenous and Race

Table 137. Outcome Rates for Federal Full Parole with Determinate Sentences by Gender

Table 138. Outcome Rates for Federal Full Parole with Determinate Sentences by Region

Federal Full Parole: Indeterminate Sentences

Table 139. Outcome of Full Parole for Offenders with Indeterminate Sentences (between April 1, 1994 and March 31, 2018)

*Includes offenders who were deported/extradited following their release on full parole.

Table 140. Full Parole Revocation Rates for Offenders with Indeterminate Sentences (between April 1, 1994 and March 31, 2018)

Table 141. Likelihood of Dying Compared to Being Revoked for an Offence for Full Parolees Serving Indeterminate Sentences (between April 1, 1994 and March 31, 2018)

Provincial Full Parole

Table 142. Outcome Rates for Provincial Full Parole

Table 143. Outcome Rates for Provincial Full Parole by Region

Note: Cases in the Ontario and Quebec regions were regional transfers, cases of exchange of service, etc.

Table 144. Outcome Rates for Provincial Full Parole by Offence Type (from 2013/14 to 2017/18)

Table 145. Outcome Rates for Provincial Full Parole by Indigenous and Race (from 2013/14 to 2017/18)

Table 146. Outcome Rates for Provincial Full Parole by Gender (from 2013/14 to 2017/18)

Outcome Rates on Statutory Release

Table 147. Outcome Rates for Statutory Release

Note: Total includes completions of statutory release of federal offenders who were subsequently convicted of a new offence and given an indeterminate sentence, as well as those serving determinate sentences for offences of second degree murder. The offenders with determinate sentences serving sentences for murder were transfers from the United States or convictions under the provisions of the Youth Criminal Justice Act.

Table 148. Outcome Rates for Statutory Release by Offence Type (%)

Note: Excludes sixteen completions of statutory release of federal offenders serving determinate sentences for murder. The offenders with determinate sentences serving sentences for murder were transfers from the United States or convictions under the provisions of the Youth Criminal Justice Act.

Table 149. Outcome Rates for Statutory Release by Indigenous and Race

Table 150. Outcome Rates for Statutory Release by Gender

Table 151. Outcome Rates for Statutory Release by Region

Table 152. Outcome Rates for Statutory Release With and Without Prior Day and/or Full Parole Supervision Periods on the Same Sentence