Study on Effectiveness, Potential Improvements and Capability of Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan
Jerry V. DeMarco
Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development
Mr. Chair, we are happy to appear before your committee this morning. I would like to acknowledge that this hearing is taking place on the traditional unceded territory of the Algonquin Anishinaabe people. With me today are Kimberley Leach and Elsa Da Costa, the principal and the director who have conducted much of the audit work on climate change that we have undertaken in recent years.
Since 1990, Canada has set out many plans, measures, and targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but no target has been met. According to Environment and Climate Change Canada, national emissions in 2023 were 694 megatonnes. This is 8.5% lower than in 2005 but 14% higher than in 1990. According to the department’s most recent projections, Canada will not deliver on its commitment to reduce emissions by 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030. In addition, these projections have not been updated since the government repealed the consumer carbon price.
While Canada’s overall emissions have increased since 1990, some sectors have achieved reductions—with the electricity sector leading the pack. With only 5 years left to meet the 2030 target, a significant shift toward implementing effective actions is needed in certain sectors such as oil and gas. The time is now to take stock of existing policies and plans and to consider lessons learned from past efforts.
In November 2021, I provided to Parliament a report that sets out 8 lessons learned from Canada’s record on climate change. The report is based on 3 decades of audits focused on Canada’s action and inaction on the enduring climate crisis.
Given Canada’s disappointing track record in addressing climate change, we urged the government to ensure that its plans and actions work to meet its targets. At the time of our 2021 report, we noted that implementing the measures then in place was expected to yield reductions of 36% by 2030.
To help frame discussions on climate change such as this one, the lessons learned report also sets out critical questions for parliamentarians to consider as levers to prompt action against commitments. We have provided these in an appendix to this statement for your reference.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s first progress report under the Canadian Net‑Zero Emissions Accountability Act, issued in 2023, shows that the gap between anticipated results from current measures and meeting the 2030 target persists.This legislation, if implemented diligently, should help establish the accountability and oversight needed to reduce emissions and meet targets.
Since 2021, our office has examined about 40 of the more than 140 measures identified in the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan or its progress report. Our most recent report on this topic, tabled last fall, highlighted 6 common themes from our findings, such as delays in the implementation of measures, unreliable estimates of emission reductions, and a lack of transparency.
In our audit work, we have noted that many experts and international bodies agree that a policy package with a range of measures, such as regulations and carbon pricing, can support deep emission reductions if they are stringent enough and applied widely.
The enduring crisis of climate change looms larger than ever. We are at a crossroads, globally and nationally, and we face difficult decisions on how we deal with a changing climate and what kind of a world that we want to leave to future generations.
It is clear that new or enhanced measures are needed to put Canada on track to meet the 2030 emission reduction target. In this context, “on track” means 3 things. First, there needs to be a plan with concrete measures that add up to meeting or exceeding the target. Second, there needs to be reliable modelling of the reductions the plan is expected to deliver. Third, there needs to be an effective implementation of actions resulting in significant year‑over‑year reductions.
Mr. Chair, this concludes my opening statement. We are happy to answer any questions the committee may have.
Appendix—Lessons Learned from Canada’s Record on Climate Change—Considerations For Parliamentarians
Lesson 1: Stronger leadership and coordination are needed to drive progress toward climate commitments
Considerations for parliamentarians
- How can coordination across all levels of government be strengthened?
- How will the federal government ensure that lead departments on climate change are given the resources and authority they need to provide leadership to other departments and agencies?
- How will the federal government ensure that policies within various jurisdictions are complementary rather than redundant or contradictory?
- Is there a way to depolarize aspects of the issue and ensure that the necessary elements of Canada’s climate actions remain consistent through changes in government?
Lesson 2: Canada’s economy is still dependent on emission‑intensive sectors
Considerations for parliamentarians
- How much financial support does Canada provide to the oil and gas industry? Could this support be reallocated to workers?
- How can Canada deliver on its promise to reduce fossil fuel subsidies that undermine the achievement of climate change actions?
- What role could a national energy strategy play in diversifying Canada’s economic interests and mitigating risks to the energy supply across Canada?
- How can the federal government identify and assist communities and workers most affected by the transition to a low‑carbon economy?
Lesson 3: Adaptation must be prioritized to protect against the worst effects of climate change
Considerations for parliamentarians
- How will the federal government ensure that all sectors of society are involved in developing and implementing adaptation strategies?
- As the federal government dedicates resources to adaptation, how can it ensure that the most pressing risks are prioritized?
- How can the federal government catalyze nature‑based solutions as a route to adaptation?
- How will the federal government ensure that funding is available for adaptation projects and initiatives?
- How can the federal government better integrate local and community‑level insights into federal adaptive planning and action?
Lesson 4: Canada risks falling behind other countries on investing in a climate‑resilient future
Considerations for parliamentarians
- How should the federal government incorporate climate disclosures into the regular risk‑disclosure practices of federal organizations and Crown corporations?
- How should the federal government mandate firms that are seeking investment capital to disclose their climate risks?
- How can the federal government better contribute to international discussions on climate finance?
- How can the federal government mandate investments that are managed across its operations to decarbonize their investment portfolios?
Lesson 5: Increasing public awareness of the climate challenge is a key lever for progress
Considerations for parliamentarians
- How can the federal government strengthen Canadians’ awareness of the climate crisis and the measures to address it?
- Where are the knowledge gaps and sources of misinformation on the topic and how can they be addressed?
- What are the best ways to relay climate‑related messaging so that it resonates with Canadians?
Lesson 6: Climate targets have not been backed by strong plans or actions
Considerations for parliamentarians
- How can the federal government tangibly demonstrate accountability and transparency in its results?
- How will Parliament ensure that the federal government is held to account for action on climate change?
- What steps will the federal government take to ensure that Canada’s climate plan, policies, and actions align with its new targets?
- How can the federal government (advised by the Net‑Zero Advisory Body) advance the implementation of the Canadian Net‑Zero Emissions Accountability Act and its incremental 5‑year milestones?
Lesson 7: Enhanced collaboration among all actors is needed to find climate solutions
Considerations for parliamentarians
- What steps can the federal government take to better collaborate with all sectors of society to meet Canada’s climate targets and develop mitigation and adaptation strategies?
- How can Parliament facilitate more effective ways for non‑government actors to hold the federal government to account for its climate objectives?
- How can the federal government support industry, trade, and professional associations to help them equip their members for the effects, risks, and opportunities of climate change and the transition to the low‑carbon economy?
- How can the federal government help sectors create transition plans to accelerate the transition to a low‑carbon economy?
Lesson 8: Climate change is an intergenerational crisis with a rapidly closing window for action
Considerations for parliamentarians
- How can the federal government be held to account for solving long‑term issues such as climate change?
- How can the federal government ensure that the interests of future generations are included in present decisions?
- How can the principle of intergenerational equity be incorporated into institutional decision making?
- How can the federal government better involve youth in climate policy?