Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Environment and Climate Change Canada publishes updated GHG emissions projection scenarios annually, reflecting the latest historical data and updated future economic and energy market assumptions. As such, projections fluctuate over time.

The latest GHG emissions projection report included 2 scenarios developed using a bottom-up approach:

• the "Reference case" scenario which includes all policies and measures funded, legislated, and implemented by federal, provincial, and territorial governments up to August 2023 and contributions from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector
• the "Additional measures" scenario which adds in policies and measures that are under development but have not yet been fully implemented, including contributions from nature-based-climate solutions (NBCS), agriculture measures and credits purchased under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI)^{Footnote 1}

A list of all policies and measures included in both scenarios is available in Annex 3 of Canada’s Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections 2023 report.

Key results

• Under the "Reference case" scenario, emissions in Canada are projected to be 560 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂ eq) in 2030^{Footnote 2}  (or 23% below 2005 levels^{Footnote 3} )
• Under the "Additional measures" scenario, emissions are projected to decline to 467 Mt CO₂ eq in 2030 (or 36% below 2005 levels)
• 2035 emissions are projected to decline further, reaching 541 Mt CO₂ eq (26% below 2005 levels) under the "Reference case" scenario and 423 Mt CO₂ eq (42% below 2005 levels) under the "Additional measures" scenario

Historical greenhouse gas emissions and projections, Canada, 2005 to 2035

How this indicator was calculated

Note: NBCS = nature-based climate solutions. Historical emissions data from 2005 to 2021 correspond to the emissions presented in the National Inventory Report 1990‑2021: Greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Canada to which were added the accounting contribution from the land use, land use change and forestry sector. NBCS and agriculture measures contribution was estimated for the year 2030 only. The "Additional measures" scenario assumes the 2030 estimate (reduction of 12 to 14 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, with a central estimate of 13) is constant out to 2035. For more information on the projection scenarios, refer to the Data sources and methods.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2023) Canada's Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections 2023. Environment and Climate Change Canada (2023) National Inventory Report 1990-2021: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada.

The uncertainty inherent in projections is addressed via modelling and analysis of alternate cases that focus on variability in: future economic growth, population projections, and oil and natural gas production and prices. The sensitivity analyses generated through these alternate cases are used to identify a range of possible emissions projections. Through the sensitivity analysis of the "Reference case" scenario, GHG emissions in 2030 are projected to range between 563 and 618 Mt CO₂ eq, excluding LULUCF accounting contributions. The LULUCF Sector is projected to reduce Canada’s emissions by 32 Mt CO₂ eq in 2030.

When all announced measures are taken into account ("Additional measures" scenario), GHG emissions for 2030 are now projected to decrease by 24 Mt CO₂ eq compared to the projections contained in Canada's Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December 2022. This change is primarily driven by historical data revisions, by new policies and measures that have been put in place, and by updated macroeconomic assumptions such as population growth and oil and gas production forecasts.

What the indicator measures

The indicator provides an overview of Canada's projected GHG emissions. These modelled projections are based on:

• historical data from Canada's National Inventory Report
• expectations about future energy markets, population and economic growth from authoritative sources including the Canada Energy Regulator, Statistics Canada, and Finance Canada
• policies and measures that were in place as of August 2023
• policies and measures that were announced but not yet fully implemented, as of August 2023
• the impact of the purchase of credits under the Western Climate Initiative, nature-based climate solutions, and agriculture measures

Why this indicator is important

In 2015, Canada and 194 other countries reached the Paris Agreement. This agreement aims to limit the global average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve this long-term goal, the Paris Agreement requires countries to increase their ambition every 5 years. In July 2021, Canada committed to a GHG emissions reduction target of 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. In March 2022, Canada announced an interim objective to reduce GHG emissions by 20% below 2005 levels by 2026.

The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act enshrines in legislation Canada's commitment to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Act establishes a legally-binding process to set 5-year national emissions-reduction targets and develop emissions-reduction plans to achieve each target. In March 2022, the Government of Canada introduced the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, the first plan issued under the Act. The plan provides a roadmap for the Canadian economy to achieve its emissions reduction target. In December 2023, the first Progress Report under the Act was tabled in Parliament, presenting an update on Canada’s progress toward the 2026 interim objective, 2030 target and implementation of Emissions Reduction Plan measures. Additional progress reports on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan are required in 2025 and 2027. Additional targets will be developed in 5-year intervals for 2035 through to 2045, as well as associated plans through to 2050. The 2035 target must be set by December 1, 2024.

TThe 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan builds upon the actions outlined in Canada's previous climate plans. Canada’s first-ever national climate plan was released in 2016 – the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change – jointly developed by the federal, provincial and territorial governments and in consultation with Indigenous Peoples. In 2020, the Government of Canada announced its strengthened climate plan, A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy.

The indicator allows the public and policymakers to see Canada's modelled GHG emissions projections relative to the 2030 target and beyond with projections up to 2035.

Further, this indicator is important because of the human health, environmental and economic impacts associated with GHG emissions.

Related initiatives

This indicator supports the measurement of progress towards the following 2022 to 2026 Federal Sustainable Development Strategy Goal 13: Take action on climate change and its impacts.

In addition, the indicator contributes to the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. They are linked to Goal 13, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts and Target 13.2, "Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning."

Related indicators

The Greenhouse gas emissions indicators report trends in total anthropogenic (human-made) GHG emissions at the national level, per person and per unit gross domestic product, by province and territory and by economic sector.

The Greenhouse gas emissions from large facilities indicator reports GHG emissions from the largest GHG emitters in Canada (industrial and other types of facilities).

The Global greenhouse gas emissions indicator provides a global perspective on Canada's share of global GHG emissions.

The Greenhouse gas concentrations indicators present atmospheric concentrations as measured from sites in Canada and at a global scale for 2 greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide and methane.

The Carbon dioxide emissions from a consumption perspective indicator shows the impact of Canada's consumption of goods and services, regardless of where they are produced, on the levels of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere.

The Land-based greenhouse gas emissions and removals indicator tracks exchanges of greenhouse gas emissions and removals between the atmosphere and Canada's managed lands.

Data sources and methods

Data sources

The data for this indicator come from Environment and Climate Change Canada's GHG emissions projections as reported in the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections 2023 report. The indicator reflects the latest GHG emissions projections modelling published by the department at the time of production.

The latest projections (December 2023) use historical GHG emissions data from the 2023 National Inventory Report for the years 2005 to 2021. The projections cover the period from 2022 to 2035.

Methods

No changes or additional calculations are performed on the data.

Recent changes

The calculation of this indicator reflects methodological revisions that were applied to the 2023 National Inventory Report, as well as revisions to the Energy, Emissions and Economy Model for Canada. For a list of the modelling and methodological changes, refer to Annex 4 of Canada's Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections 2023 report.

Caveats and limitations

Emissions projections are subject to uncertainty and are most appropriately viewed as a range of plausible outcomes. Many of the events that shape emissions and energy markets cannot be anticipated. In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics and resources cannot be foreseen with certainty.

Resources

References

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2016) Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change. Retrieved on December 7, 2023.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2020) A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy. Retrieved on December 7, 2023.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022) 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Canada's Next Steps for Clean Air and a Strong Economy. Retrieved on December 7, 2023.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022) Canada’s Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report. Retrieved on December 7, 2023.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2023) National Inventory Report 1990-2021: Greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Canada. Retrieved on December 7, 2023.

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2023) 2030 Progress Report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan. Retrieved on December 7, 2023.

Related information

Canada's climate plan

Greenhouse gas emissions projections