The Fiscal Monitor - January 2026

Highlights

January 2026

There was a budgetary deficit of $5.1 billion in January 2026, comparable to the $5.1-billion deficit recorded in January 2025. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses and gains was $4.7 billion, compared to a deficit of $4.8 billion in the same period of 2024-25. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses and gains is intended to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government's financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses and gains arising from the revaluation of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans.

Compared to January 2025:

• Revenues decreased by $1.5 billion, or 3.5 per cent, largely reflecting lower Goods and Services Tax (GST) and corporate income tax revenue. These decreases were partially offset by higher personal income tax revenue.
• Program expenses excluding net actuarial losses were down $1.8 billion, or 4.1 per cent, due mainly to lower pollution pricing proceeds returned to Canadians, reflecting the wind-down of Canada Carbon Rebate payments following the removal of the federal fuel charge effective April 1, 2025, and lower direct program expenses. These decreases were offset in part by an increase in major transfers to persons.
• Public debt charges were up $0.1 billion, or 3.1 per cent, as higher average effective interest rates on an increased stock of marketable bonds were largely offset by lower interest rates on treasury bills.
• Net actuarial losses were up $0.1 billion, or 23.9 per cent, reflecting the amortization of losses arising from actuarial valuations of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans prepared for the Public Accounts of Canada 2025, offset in part by the end of the amortization of certain prior years' net actuarial losses.

April 2025 to January 2026

The government posted a budgetary deficit of $31.2 billion for the April 2025 to January 2026 period of the 2025-26 fiscal year, compared to a deficit of $26.8 billion reported for the same period of 2024-25. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses was $27.1 billion, compared to a deficit of $23.5 billion in the April to January period of 2024-25.

Compared to 2024-25:

• Revenues were up $6.2 billion, or 1.6 per cent, largely reflecting increases in customs import duties due to the countermeasures imposed in response to U.S. tariffs, and corporate and personal income tax revenues. These increases were offset in part by lower pollution pricing proceeds to be returned to Canadians and lower GST revenues.
• Program expenses excluding net actuarial losses were up $9.9 billion, or 2.6 per cent, reflecting increases in direct program expenses, major transfers to persons, and major transfers to provinces, territories and municipalities, which were partly offset by the wind-down of the Canada Carbon Rebate.
• Public debt charges decreased by $0.1 billion, or 0.3 per cent, reflecting lower short-term interest rates on treasury bills and lower net interest on cross-currency swap transactions and other liabilities, largely offset by higher average effective interest rates on an increased stock of marketable bonds and higher Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds.
• Net actuarial losses increased by $0.8 billion, or 23.9 per cent, reflecting both the amortization of losses arising from actuarial valuations of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans as at March 31, 2025, offset in part by the end of the amortization of certain prior years' net actuarial losses.

Revenues

Revenues in January 2026 totalled $41.5 billion, down $1.5 billion, or 3.5 per cent, from January 2025.

• Tax revenues decreased by $1.4 billion, or 4.2 per cent, compared to the same period in 2024-25, reflecting lower GST revenue as a result of the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit, and lower corporate income tax revenue. These decreases were partially offset by higher personal income tax revenue.
• Pollution pricing proceeds to be returned to Canadians were down $1.0 billion, or 99.1 per cent, reflecting the cessation of the application of the federal fuel charge effective April 1, 2025.
• Employment Insurance (EI) premium revenues were up $0.4 billion, or 12.8 per cent, reflecting a higher number of persons employed.
• Other revenues were up $0.5 billion, or 12.9 per cent, reflecting higher revenues from enterprise Crown corporations, offset in part by lower interest and penalty revenue.

Revenues for the April to January period of 2025-26 totalled $404.8 billion, up $6.2 billion, or 1.6 per cent, from the same period in 2024-25.

• Tax revenues increased by $12.6 billion, or 3.8 per cent, compared to the same period in 2024-25, reflecting increases in customs import duties, and corporate and personal income tax revenues, partially offset by lower GST revenues. The increase in customs import duties is due to the countermeasures imposed in response to U.S. tariffs.
• Pollution pricing proceeds to be returned to Canadians were down $9.9 billion, or 102.1 per cent, reflecting the cessation of the application of the federal fuel charge.
• EI premium revenues were up $1.5 billion, or 6.3 per cent, reflecting a higher number of persons employed.
• Other revenues were up $2.1 billion, or 5.5 per cent, largely reflecting higher revenues from enterprise Crown corporations, offset in part by lower interest and penalty revenue.

Expenses

Program expenses excluding net actuarial losses in January 2026 were $41.6 billion, down $1.8 billion, or 4.1 per cent, from January 2025.

• Major transfers to persons, consisting of elderly benefits, EI benefits, COVID-19 income support for workers, and children's benefits, were up $1.7 billion or 16.3 per cent.
  • Elderly benefits decreased by $42 million, or 0.6 per cent.
  • EI benefits increased by $0.6 billion, or 27.0 per cent, due to new measures that made access to EI benefits easier and the timing of Labour Market Development Agreements payments.
  • COVID-19 income support for workers increased $1.0 billion, or 102.5 per cent, reflecting lower redeterminations of benefits, as well as current-year revisions to previous redeterminations.
  • Children's benefits were up $0.2 billion, or 6.5 per cent, in part reflecting the indexation of benefits to consumer prices, which annually takes effect July 1^st.
• Major transfers to provinces, territories and municipalities were up $35 million, or 0.4 per cent, as legislated growth in the Canada Health Transfer, the Canada Social Transfer, Equalization transfers and transfers to the territories was largely offset by year-over-year timing differences in payments under health agreements with provinces and territories.
• Pollution pricing proceeds returned to Canadians decreased by $2.9 billion, or 97.6 per cent, largely reflecting the structural wind-down of Canada Carbon Rebate payments following the removal of the federal fuel charge effective April 1, 2025.
• Direct program expenses were down $0.7 billion, or 3.2 per cent. Within direct program expenses:
  • Other transfer payments decreased by $1.1 billion, or 10.8 per cent, reflecting a decrease in transfers in respect of Indigenous Peoples and immigration.
  • Operating expenses of the government's departments, agencies, and consolidated Crown corporations and other entities increased by $0.4 billion, or 4.0 per cent, largely reflecting a change in the methodology for recording bad debt expense associated with taxes receivable, which has resulted in the recording of expenses earlier in the current fiscal year rather than in the post-March period.

Public debt charges increased $0.1 billion, or 3.1 per cent, as higher average effective interest rates on an increased stock of marketable bonds were largely offset by lower interest rates on treasury bills.

Net actuarial losses, which represent the amortization of changes in the value of the government's obligations for pensions and other employee future benefits accrued in previous fiscal years and related assets, were up $0.1 billion, or 23.9 per cent, largely reflecting the amortization of losses arising from actuarial valuations prepared for the Public Accounts of Canada 2025, as well as the end of the amortization of certain prior years' net actuarial losses.

For the April to January period of 2025-26, program expenses excluding net actuarial losses were $386.5 billion, up $9.9 billion, or 2.6 per cent, from the same period the previous year.

• Major transfers to persons were up $7.6 billion or 7.0 per cent.
  • Elderly benefits increased by $1.3 billion, or 1.9 per cent, largely reflecting changes in consumer prices, to which benefits are fully indexed.
  • EI benefits increased by $3.2 billion, or 16.1 per cent, largely reflecting a higher unemployment rate in this period compared to the previous year, as well as new measures that made access to EI benefits easier.
  • COVID-19 income support for workers increased $1.9 billion, or 107.3 per cent, reflecting lower redeterminations of benefits, as well as current-year revisions to previous redeterminations.
  • Children's benefits were up $1.2 billion, or 5.2 per cent, in part reflecting the indexation of benefits to consumer prices.
• Major transfers to provinces, territories and municipalities were up $5.0 billion, or 5.8 per cent, largely reflecting legislated growth in the Canada Health Transfer, the Canada Social Transfer, Equalization transfers and transfers to the territories, and year-over-year differences in the timing of payments under health agreements and Canada-wide early learning and child care transfers.
• Pollution pricing proceeds returned to Canadians decreased by $10.4 billion, or 72.6 per cent, largely reflecting the structural wind-down of Canada Carbon Rebate payments following the removal of the federal fuel charge effective April 1, 2025.
• Direct program expenses were up $7.7 billion, or 4.6 per cent. Within direct program expenses:
  • Other transfer payments decreased by $1.3 billion, or 1.9 per cent, reflecting a number of factors including a decrease in transfers in respect of Indigenous Peoples, disaster assistance, incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles, and immigration, offset in part by the rollout of transfers under the Canadian Dental Care Plan and higher defence contributions.
  • Operating expenses of the government's departments, agencies, and consolidated Crown corporations and other entities increased by $9.0 billion, or 9.1 per cent, reflecting higher personnel costs, a change in the methodology for recording bad debt expense associated with taxes receivable, which has resulted in the recording of expenses earlier in the current fiscal year rather than in the post-March period, and increased defence spending.

Public debt charges decreased by $0.1 billion, or 0.3 per cent, reflecting lower short-term interest rates on treasury bills and lower net interest on cross-currency swap transactions and other liabilities, largely offset by higher average effective interest rates on an increased stock of marketable bonds and higher Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds.

Net actuarial losses increased by $0.8 billion, or 23.9 per cent, reflecting the amortization of losses arising from updated actuarial valuations of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans as at March 31, 2025, offset in part by the end of the amortization of certain prior years' net actuarial losses.

The following table presents total expenses by main object of expense.

Financial requirement of $82.6 billion for April 2025 to January 2026

The budgetary balance is presented on an accrual basis of accounting, recording government revenues and expenses when they are earned or incurred, regardless of when the cash is received or paid. In contrast, the financial source/requirement measures the difference between cash coming in to the government and cash going out. This measure is affected not only by changes in the budgetary balance but also by the cash source/requirement resulting from the government's investing activities through its acquisition of capital assets and its loans, financial investments and advances, as well as from other activities, including payment of accounts payable and collection of accounts receivable, foreign exchange activities, and the amortization of its tangible capital assets. The difference between the budgetary balance and financial source/requirement is recorded in non-budgetary transactions.

With a budgetary deficit of $31.2 billion and a requirement of $51.4 billion from non-budgetary transactions, there was a financial requirement of $82.6 billion for the April 2025 to January 2026 period, compared to a financial requirement of $99.8 billion for the same period of the previous year.

Net financing activities up $94.8 billion

The government financed this financial requirement of $82.6 billion and increased cash balances by $12.2 billion by increasing unmatured debt by $94.8 billion. The increase in unmatured debt was achieved primarily through the issuance of marketable bonds.

Cash balances at the end of January 2026 stood at $58.3 billion, up $11.6 billion from their level at the end of January 2025.

Federal debt

The federal debt, or accumulated deficit, is the difference between the government's total liabilities and total assets. The year-over-year change in the accumulated deficit reflects the year-to-date budgetary balance plus remeasurement gains and losses.

Remeasurement gains and losses include:

• changes in the fair value of derivatives, such as swap agreements and foreign exchange forward agreements, which are used by the government to manage financial risks, and
• certain unrealized gains and losses on financial instruments and certain actuarial gains and losses related to pensions and other employee future benefits reported by consolidated Crown corporations, enterprise Crown corporations, and other government business enterprises.

Remeasurement gains and losses are not reflected in the budgetary balance but are instead charged directly to the accumulated deficit.

The accumulated deficit increased by $31.6 billion over the April 2025 to January 2026 period, reflecting the $31.2‑billion budgetary deficit and $0.4 billion in net remeasurement losses.

Notes

1. The Fiscal Monitor is a report on the consolidated financial results of the Government of Canada, prepared monthly by the Department of Finance Canada. The government is committed to releasing The Fiscal Monitor on a timely basis in accordance with the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standards Plus, which are designed to promote member countries' data transparency and promote the development of sound statistical systems.
2. The financial results reported in The Fiscal Monitor are drawn from the accounts of Canada, which are maintained by the Receiver General and used to prepare the annual Public Accounts of Canada.
3. The Fiscal Monitor is generally prepared in accordance with the same accounting policies as used to prepare the government's annual consolidated financial statements, which are summarized in Section 2 of Volume I of the Public Accounts of Canada, available through the Public Services and Procurement Canada website.
4. The financial results presented in The Fiscal Monitor have not been audited or reviewed by an external auditor.
5. There can be substantial volatility in monthly results due to the timing of revenue receipts and expense recognition. For instance, a large share of government spending is typically reported in the March Fiscal Monitor.
6. The April to March results reported in The Fiscal Monitor are not the final results for the fiscal year as a whole. The final results are published in the annual Public Accounts of Canada and incorporate post-March end-of-year adjustments made once further information becomes available, including the accrual of tax revenues reflecting assessments of tax returns and valuation adjustments for assets and liabilities. Post-March adjustments may also include the accrual of measures announced in the budget that are recorded upon receipt of Royal Assent of enabling legislation.
7. Table 7, Condensed Statement of Assets and Liabilities, is included in the monthly Fiscal Monitor following the finalization and publication of the government's financial results for the preceding fiscal year, typically in the fall.

Note: Unless stated otherwise, changes in financial results are presented on a year-over-year basis.

For inquiries about this publication, contact Gina Clark at gina.clark@fin.gc.ca.

March 2026