Archived - Long Descriptions

In 1995, there were 3.5 million seniors aged 65 and over, lower than the 6 million children under the age of 15. This changed as of 2015, when the 65 and older reached 5.8 million and outnumbered the 5.7 million under the age of 15. This gap is expected to increase over the next 20 years as the population aged 65 and older grows at a faster rate than the number of children under the age of 15. In 2035, there are expected to be 10.1 million seniors aged 65 and older compared to 6.7 million children under the age of 15.

While there have been annual variations in the actual labour force participation rate, the trend labour force participation rate increased from slightly less than 62 per cent in the mid-1970s to a peak slightly above 67 per cent in 2008. An aging population has already led and will continue to lead to a rapid reduction in the overall rate of labour force participation, which is expected to fall below 62 per cent within about two decades.

Real GDP growth averaged 4.8 per cent per year between 1950 and 1979 and 2.4 per cent per year between 1980 and 2015. Going forward, the increase in the pace of population aging is expected, under baseline assumptions, to reduce real GDP growth to an average of 1.7 per cent per year between 2016 and 2055.

The 2016 Fall Economic Statement projects the federal debt-to-GDP ratio to increase from 31.1 per cent in 2015-16 to 31.9 per cent in 2018-19 before declining to 30.4 per cent in 2021-22. Starting from these medium-term projections, long-term baseline projections beyond 2021-22 show a relatively stable debt-to-GDP ratio at around 29 per cent until the early 2030s. Thereafter, this ratio starts trending downward to reach 17.3 per cent in 2055-56. In an alternative scenario where productivity growth is lower and program spending growth is higher than under the baseline projections, the debt-to-GDP ratio is relatively stable until 2024-25, after which it continuously trends upward to reach 52.3 per cent in 2055-56. In another alternative scenario where productivity growth is higher and program spending growth is lower than under the baseline projections, the debt-to-GDP ratio continuously declines to reach a net asset position of 11.8 per cent in 2055-56.

In 2016 dollars, real GDP has grown from slightly less than $1,000 billion in 1981 to about $2,000 billion now. Under baseline assumptions, real GDP is expected to reach close to $4,000 billion by 2055. It would however be 20 per cent higher by that time (slightly less than $5,000 billion) under policies that succeed in increasing labour force participation and productivity growth.