FREDERICTON, November 16, 2004 -- New Brunswick's overall export sales will grow by 8 per cent in 2004, but fall by 4 per cent in 2005, according to a provincial outlook released today by Export Development Canada (EDC). "Lower energy prices in 2005 will have a significant impact on the overall value of New Brunswick exports," says EDC vice-president and chief economist Stephen Poloz. "Modest growth is expected for the province's resource industries, while the industrial goods sector sees growth slightly above historic norms." While energy exports are expected to grow by 8 per cent by the end of 2004, they are forecast to retract 12 per cent in 2005. Lower prices for oil in 2005 coupled with stable production in refined petroleum products will reduce the value of the province's energy sales. New Brunswick's industrial goods sector will realize price and volume gains in 2004 following strong global growth in industrial production. Export sales of industrial goods are projected to increase by 14 per cent in 2004, and 5 per cent in 2005, largely based on sales of potash, zinc and refined lead. Lumber sales are leading the province to a projected 12 per cent increase in forestry exports in 2004 as producers benefit from high demand in US markets. Falling lumber prices, the effects of pulp mill closures and disappointing newsprint exports indicate that forestry exports will probably grow by just 1 per cent in 2005, with most risk weighing in on the downside. New Brunswick's agri-food sector will fail to record any growth in 2004. This year is a contrast between a rebounding of crab and salmon exports and a poor showing for frozen potato exports. In 2005, while crab exports stabilize, modest growth is expected for salmon and frozen foods. Key risks to our forecasted 3 per cent rise in agri-food exports next year include a stronger than expected Canadian dollar, the continued effects of the Atkins' diet on potato demand, and the potential for emergence of disease affecting farmed salmon. New Brunswick's exports in 2004 will reach just over $9.2 billion, an 8 per cent increase over the previous year. Export sales are set to fall to slightly more than $8.8 billion in 2005. Energy will represent the province's largest export sector in 2004, at 46 per cent of the total, followed by forestry at 28 per cent and agri-food at 14 per cent. Nationally, the economy is expected to grow by 3.2 per cent in 2005, roughly on par with 2004, and export sales should increase by 1 per cent in 2005, after rising by 9 per cent this year. A copy of EDC's Global Export Forecast is available on EDC's web site: http://www.edc.ca/docs/ereports/gef/EFindex_e.htm. EDC provides trade finance and risk management services to Canadian exporters and investors in up to 200 markets. Founded in 1944, EDC is a Crown corporation that operates on commercial principles. - 30 - Media Contact: Glen Nichols Public Affairs Tel.: (613) 598-2876 E-mail: glnichols@edc.ca
