HALIFAX, November 16, 2004 -- Nova Scotia's export sales will grow by 2 per cent in 2005, following 3 per cent growth in 2004, according to a provincial outlook released today by Export Development Canada (EDC). « Nova Scotia's industries are quite well diversified," says EDC vice- president and chief economist Stephen Poloz. "The province will be able to weather the effects of falling energy exports with growth in the province's other key industries. » After declining by 2 per cent in 2004, energy exports are expected to shrink a further 10 per cent in 2005, driven primarily by lower prices, and reduced gas production from Sable Island. The decline in energy exports will be offset by an 8 per cent increase in forestry exports in 2005, following an 11 per cent increase in 2004. Lumber prices will soften in 2005 as U.S. housing construction decelerates, but strong demand for pulp will continue and newsprint demand is expected to rise in conjunction with increased advertising. Exports of motor vehicles will remain strong in 2005 at 7 per cent growth, pushed down slightly from a projected 10 per cent growth in 2004. This outlook is based on expectations of scaled back, but still robust American auto sales, as well as growing demand from other markets. Tires account for nearly 90% of Nova Scotia's motor vehicle exports. Demand-driven price increases for seafood in 2005 will see agri-food exports grow by 4 per cent after declining the two previous consecutive years, including an estimated 4 per cent decline in 2004 resulting from lower export values for lobster and shrimp. Nova Scotia's exports in 2004 will reach just under $5.5 billion, a 3 per cent increase over the previous year. Export sales are set to rise to slightly more than $5.6 billion in 2005. Agri-food will represent the province's largest export sector in 2004, at 25 per cent of the total, followed by energy at 23 per cent and forestry at 19 per cent. Nationally, the economy is expected to grow by 3.2 per cent in 2005, roughly on par with 2004, and export sales should increase by 1 per cent in 2005, after rising by 9 per cent this year. A copy of EDC's Global Export Forecast is available on EDC's web site: http://www.edc.ca/docs/ereports/gef/EFindex_e.htm. EDC provides trade finance and risk management services to Canadian exporters and investors in up to 200 markets. Founded in 1944, EDC is a Crown corporation that operates on commercial principles. - 30 - Media Contact: Glen Nichols Public Affairs Tel.: (613) 598-2876 E-mail: glnichols@edc.ca
