November 10, 2004 REGINA -- Saskatchewan export sales are expected to grow by 1 per cent in 2005, after posting 20 per cent growth in 2004, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC). "Strong gains this year were led by high energy prices and Saskatchewan's resource exports," says EDC senior vice-president and chief economist Stephen Poloz. "Changing dynamics in these sectors will see Saskatchewan's export growth settle at 1 per cent in 2005." In 2004, agri-food exports are expected to grow 30 per cent but will recede to 4 per cent growth in 2005 due to lower crop yields in this year's harvest and declining prices for grain and oilseed. Energy exports, projected to grow by 18 per cent in 2004 because of higher energy prices, will fall by 8 per cent in 2005 as energy prices come down from record highs. Industrial goods - primarily potash - are expected to grow by 13 per cent in 2004 and 8 per cent in 2005, due to growing world demand for fertilizers as farmers strive to meet rising world crop demands. Saskatchewan's exports in 2004 will reach just under $12.3 billion, a 20 per cent increase over the previous year. This rapid growth resulted from the low base established by an 8.5 per cent decline in 2003 which was caused by that year's US ban on Canadian exports of live cattle, crop losses from a grasshopper infestation and the sharp rise of the dollar. Export sales are set to rise to slightly more than $12.4 billion in 2005. Agri-food will represent the province's largest export sector in 2004, at 34.6 per cent of the total, followed by energy at 31.3 per cent and industrial goods at 22.6 per cent. Nationally, the economy is expected to grow by 3.2 per cent in 2005, roughly on par with 2004, and export sales should increase by 1 per cent in 2005, after rising by 9 per cent this year. A copy of EDC's Global Export Forecast is available on EDC's web site: http://www.edc.ca/docs/ereports/gef/EFindex_e.htm EDC provides trade finance and risk management services to Canadian exporters and investors in up to 200 markets. Founded in 1944, EDC is a Crown corporation that operates on commercial principles. - 30 - Information: Glen Nichols Public Affairs Tel.: (613) 598-2876 E-mail: glnichols@edc.ca
