SASKATOON - April 28, 2006 Saskatchewan's robust export growth is expected to moderate to a more sustainable 5 per cent in 2006 after growing by nearly 14 per cent in 2005, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC). EDC forecasts continued provincial export growth in 2007 of 3 per cent.
Growth will continue to be led by strong demand for the Saskatchewan's energy and agri-foods exports, which account for 35.7 and 26.3 per cent of the province's total exports, respectively. Global demand for Saskatchewan's uranium and potash has also fueled Saskatchewan's growth.
"Saskatchewan's export growth is ahead of the national average and is well measured across most sectors," said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist. "Lower energy prices lurking through 2007 will cool Saskatchewan's strong growth, but the energy and agri-food sectors will buoy the province's growth in the near term."
Saskatchewan's energy exports are forecast to grow by a robust 14 per cent in 2006 after expanding nearly 22 per cent in 2005. Ongoing high oil prices have contributed to the energy sector now becoming the province's top export. Oil and gas prices are expected to trend lower through 2007 as production capacity increases, likely causing the value of energy exports to grow by a more modest 4 per cent in 2007.
Agri-food exports are expected to grow by a healthy 9 per cent in 2006 and a more modest 2 per cent in 2007, led by the major crops particularly coarse grains, pulses and non-durum wheat. Exports are expected to rebound in 2006 owing to higher output yields from the 2005 growing season, but prices will trend downward because most producing countries also managed to increase yields. Saskatchewan's exports' of industrial goods (accounting for 26.1 per cent of the province's total exports) are projected to decline by 10 per cent after growing nearly 30 per cent in 2005, a run up due mostly to the sharp rise in potash prices.
Nationally, Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at 3.0 per cent in 2006 and 2.7 per cent in 2007. Canadian export volumes are forecast to grow by 3 per cent in 2006, up slightly from 2 per cent in 2005. Internationally, EDC is forecasting 4.3 per cent global economic growth in 2006 and 4.1 per cent growth in 2007, down from 4.5 in 2005. The continued healthy performance remains ahead of the historical long term average. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
Export Development Canada (EDC) is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial reporting, economic analysis and human resource management.
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Media contact: Phil TaylorEDC Public Affairs(613) 598-2904 ptaylor@edc.ca
