CALGARY - May 16, 2006 - The value of Alberta's international exports are forecast to moderate towards a still healthy 6 per cent in 2006 and 2 per cent in 2007 after significant 18.5 per cent growth in 2005, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
"While there is no question that the energy sector is driving Alberta's export boom, the strong performance by the province's industrial goods, agri-food, and manufacturing and equipment sectors should not be overlooked," said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist. "In a time where the higher dollar and high energy prices are stressing non-energy sectors, Albertan companies have found a way to not only cope, but grow."
Developments in oil and gas markets in particular powered total energy sales ahead, and contributed to the CAD 12.4 billion gain in last year's total exports of CAD 79.2 billion. A modest weakening in oil and natural gas prices is expected over the longer term, owing to increased global output and a moderation in demand growth for energy. Petroleum and natural gas represents over two-thirds of Alberta's total exports and, with the inclusion of coal and electricity, energy exports posting a 25 per cent rise to CAD 58 billion in 2005, almost three-quarters of total export earnings. Combined energy exports are on track to rise 6 per cent in 2006, followed by a further gain of around 2 per cent in 2007.
Alberta's other major exports: industrial goods, agri-food, machinery and equipment, and forestry accounted for 11 per cent, 6 per cent, 4 per cent, and 4 per cent of total exports respectively in 2005. Exports of industrial goods and machinery and equipment are on track to post export growth of 2 per cent and 6 per cent respectively in 2006 and 3 per cent and 5 per cent in 2007. Agri-food exports are forecast to grow by substantive 11 per cent in 2006 and 6 per cent in 2007, while the forestry sector will continue to decline by 7 per cent in 2006 and 4 per cent in 2007. In the agri-food industry, the sale of live animals posted the only noteworthy gains of 2005 while the sale of processed meat and coarse grains advanced by 2 to 3 per cent. Exports of wheat and oilseeds slid 18 to 23 per cent. Although live animal exports will again drive agri-food sales in 2006, gains are expected to be more broadly based across the other agri-food sub-categories.
Nationally, Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at 3.0 per cent in 2006 and 2.7 per cent in 2007. Canadian export volumes are forecast to grow by 3 per cent in 2006, up slightly from 2 per cent in 2005. Internationally, EDC is forecasting 4.3 per cent global economic growth in 2006 and 4.1 per cent growth in 2007, down from 4.5 in 2005. The continued healthy performance remains ahead of the historical long term average. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/docs/ereports/gef/EFindex_e.htm.Export Development Canada (EDC) is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial reporting, economic analysis and human resource management.
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Media contact: Phil TaylorEDC Public Affairs(613) 598-2904 ptaylor@edc.ca
