CALGARY - November 15, 2006 - The value of Alberta's international exports will remain strong with estimated growth of 9 per cent in 2006, but decline by 1 per cent in 2007 according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
"Strong oil and commodity prices have combined to lift Alberta's exports for the third year in a row, remaining one of the country's leaders," said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist. "As price gains pull back in late 2006 and 2007, though, we'll see a cooling of Alberta's red hot exports." More modest gains are projected for the non-energy sectors in 2006, forecasted at average export growth of 3 per cent and followed by 1 per cent growth in 2007.
Alberta's energy exports, which account for 72.8 per cent of the province's export value, are forecast to grow by 11 per cent in 2006 before declining 1 per cent in 2007 as oil prices pull back. Crude oil and refined petroleum products provide more than 35 per cent of the province's total foreign sales. Exports are expected to reach CAD 34 billion in 2006, a 24 per cent increase over 2005. A modest weakening in oil prices is expected over the next 2 to 3 years owing to increased global output and a moderation in demand for energy. Meanwhile, global inventories are expected to gradually rebound as new capacity begins to take effect. Crude oil averaged USD 66.50 per barrel in 2006 and EDC forecasts an average of USD 55 per barrel in 2007.
Natural gas provides more than 38 per cent of the province's total exports, and EDC expects the market price to average USD 6.15/mmbtu in 2006 and USD 6.50/mmbtu in 2007. The price gains will be supported by uncertainty of production capacity. Natural gas export sales are forecasted to slip by 2 per cent in 2006 before rebounding 4 per cent in 2007.
Industrial goods are the second largest export sector in Alberta, accounting for 11 per cent of the province's export earnings. Foreign sales of resin and synthetic rubber are up strongly in 2006 and are projected to reach CAD 3.7 billion, an increase of 25 per cent over 2005. Overall, exports of industrial goods are forecasted to grow by 7 per cent in 2006 before declining by 2 per cent in 2007 owing to weaker prices for the province's key commodities.
Nationally, Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at 2.8 per cent in 2006 and 2.4 per cent in 2007. Canadian exports are forecast to grow by 3 per cent in 2006 before declining by 1 per cent in 2007. Internationally, EDC is forecasting 4.8 per cent global economic growth in 2006 and 4.0 per cent growth in 2007. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/docs/ereports/gef/EFindex_e.htm.
Export Development Canada (EDC) is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial reporting, economic analysis and human resource management.
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Media contact: Phil TaylorEDC Public Affairs(613) 598-2904 ptaylor@edc.ca
