HALIFAX - November 28, 2006 - The value of Nova Scotia's exports is expected to grow by 6 per cent in 2007 after a 5 per cent decline in 2006, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC). Nova Scotia's key sectors are energy, agri-food and forestry, accounting for 25.4 per cent, 23.2 per cent and 18.4 per cent of the province's exports, respectively.
"The province's export growth moved into negative territory during 2006, largely the result of scaled-back newsprint production combined with weakness in seafood and energy. But look for a solid rebound in 2007," said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist.
After a 2 per cent decline in 2006, Nova Scotia's energy exports are expected to rebound significantly in 2007, where they are forecast to grow by 10 per cent. Contributing to the weakness in 2006 is an estimated 7 per cent reduction in export volumes, reflecting the fourth consecutive annual production decline. EDC expects the market price of natural gas to average USD 6.15/mmbtu in 2006 and USD 6.50/mmbtu in 2007. Production of refined petroleum products has already shown considerable strength this year, but exports are expected to fall in 2007, in line with EDC's forecasted crude prices of USD 66.50/barrel in 2006 and USD 55/barrel in 2007.
Nova Scotia's agri-food exports are forecast to decline by 5 per cent in 2006, but rebound to 3 per cent growth in 2007. A rise in lobster export volumes is expected to offset lower prices in 2006. Shipments of crab, both in terms of price and landings, are forecast to decline. Scallops are experiencing a lower catch rate, but higher prices are more than offsetting the negative impact. In 2007, EDC expects seafood prices to rebound slightly due in part to a modest depreciation in the Canadian dollar. The depreciation will help offset a moderation in U.S. and Japanese demand.
Nationally, Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at 2.8 per cent in 2006 and 2.4 per cent in 2007. Canadian exports are forecast to grow by 3 per cent in 2006 before declining by 1 per cent in 2007. Internationally, EDC is forecasting 4.8 per cent global economic growth in 2006 and 4.0 per cent growth in 2007. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/docs/ereports/gef/EFindex_e.htm.
Export Development Canada (EDC) is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial reporting, economic analysis and human resource management.
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Media contact: Phil TaylorEDC Public Affairs(613) 796-4368ptaylor@edc.ca
