OTTAWA - November 16, 2006 - Saskatchewan's exports have maintained momentum in 2006, rising an estimated 13 per cent after having grown by 14 per cent in 2005, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC). EDC forecasts provincial exports to level off in 2007.
"Saskatchewan's export growth will continue to be led by strong demand for its energy and agri-food exports, as well as growing global demand for its uranium to fuel nuclear power plants," said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist. "Overall growth will be tempered in 2007 due to a combination of easing energy prices and ongoing challenges in the forestry sector."
The province's energy exports, accounting for 35.5 per cent of the province's total exports, are forecast to rise by 29 per cent in 2006 after expanding by more than 21 per cent in 2005. High oil prices have contributed to the energy sector becoming the province's top export. Prices should trend lower over the next couple of years as oil demand growth softens and global production capacity increases, likely causing the value of energy exports to decline by 8 per cent in 2007. Saskatchewan's energy exports are almost entirely comprised of crude oil, accounting for nearly 18 per cent of crude oil production in Canada in 2005.
Saskatchewan's exports of agri-food products, 26.7 per cent of the province's total, are expected to grow by 19 per cent in 2006 and 7 per cent in 2007. Growth in 2006 is being led by exports of oilseeds, particularly canola exports. Global use of oilseed is forecast to increase to record levels in 2006 owing to higher consumption in China and India. As such, Saskatchewan's exports of canola are expected to increase by 29 per cent in 2006. A combination of lower supplies and higher prices will see canola exports level off in 2007. The province's exports of coarse grains are projected to grow by 10 per cent in 2006 and a further 4 per cent in 2007, with greater growth of oats and barley taking advantage of higher world prices and lower production costs.
Saskatchewan's exports of industrial goods, accounting for 26 per cent of Saskatchewan's total export bundle, are projected to decline by 3 per cent in 2006 but rebound with 7 per cent growth in 2007. More than three quarters of the province's industrial goods exports consist of potash. The rebound will be partly attributable to additional volume by Potash Corp at the Lanigan and Allan mines.
Nationally, Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at 2.8 per cent in 2006 and 2.4 per cent in 2007. Canadian exports are forecast to grow by 3 per cent in 2006 before declining by 1 per cent in 2007. Internationally, EDC is forecasting 4.8 per cent global economic growth in 2006 and 4.0 per cent growth in 2007. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/docs/ereports/gef/EFindex_e.htm.
Export Development Canada (EDC) is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial reporting, economic analysis and human resource management.
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Media contact: Phil TaylorEDC Public Affairs(613) 598-2904 ptaylor@edc.ca
