(HALIFAX) May 31, 2006 The value of Nova Scotia’s exports is expected to grow by 1 per cent in 2007 and a further 2 per cent in 2008, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC). Nova Scotia’s key sectors are agri-food, energy, and autos/parts, accounting for 24.9 per cent, 20.4 per cent and 17.1 per cent of the province’s exports, respectively.
“Nova Scotia had a tough year in 2006, leading the provinces with the largest rate of decline at 11.8 per cent. Looking ahead, the outlook is somewhat more favourable, but we do not expect a recovery in exports until 2008,” said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist. “Although stronger natural gas production will help bolster exports this year, weakness in petroleum products, seafood, motor vehicle parts, lumber and wood manufacturing will restrain export growth.”
Despite a jump in crab prices this year, seafood exports are not expected to rebound in 2007. The strong Canadian dollar and the high price of raw materials (including fuel) have added to an environment of poor pricing, and in some cases lower landings. Looking further ahead, a weaker Canadian dollar together with the gradual recovery of the US east-coast market should help to improve seafood exports in 2008. Nova Scotia’s agri-food sector is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2007 and 1 per cent in 2008.
Natural gas inventories rose throughout the year and now stand 11 per cent above the 5-year historical average. As such, prices are expected to exhibit less volatility in 2007. The recent addition of the Sable compression deck platform is expected to lift, or at least maintain, natural gas production in the province. Crude exports in 2007 are expected to fall in line with the anticipated decrease in prices. Nova Scotia’s energy sector is forecast to grow by 8 per cent in 2007 and a further 6 per cent in 2008.
Nationally, Canadian export volumes are forecast to decline by 1 per cent in 2007 before rising by a modest 1 per cent in 2008. Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at 2.3 per cent in 2007 and 2.9 per cent in 2008. Internationally, EDC is forecasting 4.5 per cent global economic growth in 2007 and 4.6 per cent growth in 2008. EDC’s Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
Export Development Canada is Canada’s export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC’s knowledge and partnerships are used by 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial reporting, economic analysis and has been named one of Canada’s Top 100 Employers for six consecutive years.
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Media contact: Phil TaylorEDC Public Affairs(613) 598-2904 ptaylor@edc.ca
