(HALIFAX) November 27, 2007 Nova Scotia's exports are forecast to grow by 7 per cent in 2007 and by a more modest 3 per cent in 2008, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
"Nova Scotia's international exports recovered somewhat this year, and should post a further modest gain in 2008," said Stephen Poloz, Senior Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Chief Economist. "The province's exports will be supported by growth in sectors like food and beverage, pulp processing, rubber and plastics and some machinery equipment manufacturing. However, the province's large seafood industry is not expected to show any export gains through the coming year."
The agri-food sector accounts for 25 per cent of the province's export picture. Higher seafood prices this year have helped buffer the effects of lower landings. Higher crab prices have been the highlight, up 20 to 30 per cent in the first half of 2007. Lobster exports are expected drop slightly this year on slightly lower catches, but EDC expects earlier weakness in the year to dissipate through the final months of 2007. In 2008, slightly lower prices for crab, lobster and salmon, and lower overall landings, will result in lower seafood earnings. Shrimp prices should remain steady.
The energy sector, representing 20.2 per cent of the province's exports, will see sustained growth of 14.9 per cent in 2007 and 10.9 per cent in 2008. Natural gas production at the Sable offshore energy facility is expected to ramp up in the second half of this year after commissioning delays following the installation of the compression deck platform. The ramp-up will result in natural gas export growth of 17 per cent in 2007 and 12 per cent in 2008. While stronger gas shipments contributed to export growth this year, rising natural gas prices and a weaker Canadian dollar will boost export earnings next year. The price for natural gas is forecast to average US$7.0/mmbtu in 2007 before increasing to US$7.5/mmbtu in 2008.
Nationally, Canadian economic growth is forecast to remain stable at 2.3 per cent in 2007, and 2.6 per cent in 2008. Key price gains in commodities have put Canadian exports on track to increase by 3.7 per cent in 2007, but the impact of weaker U.S. and global demand will have the export growth rate more than halved to 1.5 per cent in 2008. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 4.9 per cent growth rate in 2007, and 4.5 per cent in 2008. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by 6,400 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial reporting, economic analysis and has been recognized as one of Canada's Top 100 Employers for seven consecutive years.
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Media contact:
Phil TaylorEDC Public Affairs(613) 598-2904ptaylor@edc.ca
