(CALGARY) – May 5, 2008 – Alberta's exports will rise by 6 per cent in 2008 before leveling off in 2009 as oil prices retreat from today's speculative highs, according to a Provincial Export Forecast released today by Export Development Canada (EDC).
"High commodity prices will keep the shine on Alberta exports," said Peter Hall, Vice-President of Economics and Deputy Chief Economist. "Energy and agri-food will be the key sources of strength this year, while forestry remains flat and industrial goods exports soften. In 2009, a large drop in the price of crude will more than offset modest gains for most non-energy sectors, which will receive a lift from the weaker Canadian dollar."
The energy sector represents 66 per cent of Alberta's international exports, in large part destined for the U.S. Crude exports are expected to rise in 2008 on higher oil prices and increased shipments of synthetic crude. In 2009, EDC expects the price of WTI crude to fall to US$68/barrel, but weakness will be offset by further increases in non-conventional crude production and a falling Canadian dollar.
In EDC's opinion, USD 100 crude is well above what global demand and supply fundamentals suggest, and we expect a strong retrenchment in 2008. Meanwhile, natural gas export volumes are expected to fall, on a combination of low drilling activity, increased focus on costlier non-conventional drilling and rising domestic consumption. Finally, coal exports should register considerable gains in 2008, driven higher supply problems in China and Australia.
Canadian exports are forecast to decline by 2 per cent in 2008 before posting 2 per cent growth in 2009. Nationally, economic growth is forecast to decline to 1 per cent in 2008 with a slight upturn to 2.3 per cent in 2009. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 3.8 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 2009. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by nearly 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining, is a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis, and has been named one of Canada's Top 100 Employers for seven consecutive years.
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B-roll of Peter Hall's thoughts on Alberta's exports and the forecast for the oil and gas sector are available at the FTP site provided below. Additional b-roll for forecasts of the Canadian dollar, the Canadian economy, price of oil and other related topics are also available.
FTP site: ftp://relay1.edc.ca
User name: edcnews
Password: gef2008
The preview folder is for quick viewing. Please use the download folder for higher grade files suitable for television and radio broadcast use.
Media contact:
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598-2904
Blackberry: ptaylor@edc.ca
