HALIFAX – May 27, 2008 – Nova Scotia's total exports are expected to fall by 1 per cent in
2008 before rebounding by 4.8 per cent in 2009, according to a Provincial Export Forecast released today by Export Development Canada (EDC). The 2009 rebound is attributable to better conditions in the US and a weaker Canadian dollar that will benefit exporters in the resources sectors.
"Around 75% of Nova Scotia's exports go to the U.S., so it is expected that weakness in the neighbouring economy will have a negative impact on exports over the next 2 years," said Peter Hall, Vice-President of Economics and Deputy Chief Economist. "In particular, the forestry, motor vehicles and parts, and natural gas sectors will be the most severely affected. On the brighter side, fisheries and aerospace are expected to remain in decent shape."
The agrifood sector accounts for 23.5 per cent of the province's total exports, and is expected to grow by 4.7 and 4.2 per cent in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Fisheries in Nova Scotia will have to overcome several challenges to remain competitive, such as the strong Canadian dollar, rising operating costs and new legislation affecting the industry. Domestic production and international demand for lobster, sea scallops and snow crab are expected to remain strong. Other species (such as cold water shrimp, cod, pollock, haddock and redfish) will continue to suffer from great price volatility. Overall, we expect fisheries exports to grow 6 per cent in 2008 and 5 per cent in 2009.
More than 21 per cent of the province's exports are generated by the energy sector, which is expected to grow by 1 per cent in 2008 and 3 per cent in 2009. On the Natural Gas front, the Sable Offshore Energy Project is expected to boost output by 25 per cent between 2009 and 2015. There are also several other projects underway, but none of them will come on line over the next 2 years. EDC expects exports of natural gas to decrease 2 per cent in 2008 and increase by 5 per cent in 2009.
Canadian exports are forecast to decline by 2 per cent in 2008 before posting 2 per cent growth in 2009. Nationally, economic growth is forecast to decline to 1 per cent in 2008 with a slight upturn to 2.3 per cent in 2009. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 3.8 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 2009. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining and is a recognized leader in financial reporting, economic analysis and has been named one of Canada's Top 100 Employers for seven consecutive years.
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B-roll of Peter Hall's thoughts on Nova Scotia's exports and the forecast for the agrifood sector are available at the FTP site provided below. Additional b-roll for forecasts of the Canadian dollar, the Canadian economy, price of oil and other related topics are also available.
FTP site: ftp://relay1.edc.ca
Password: gef2008
The preview folder is for quick viewing. Please use the download folder for higher grade files suitable for television and radio broadcast use.
Media contact:
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598-2904
Blackberry: ptaylor@edc.ca
