(SASKATOON) – May 9, 2008 – Saskatchewan's export growth will lead the country in 2008 with an increase of 13 per cent, with an expected increase of 2 per cent in 2009 according to a Provincial Export Forecast released today by Export Development Canada (EDC).
"Saskatchewan will lead the country in export growth in 2008, driven by strong external demand for potash and uranium, and high wheat and coarse grain prices," said Peter Hall, Vice-President of Economics and Deputy Chief Economist. "With the exception of oil and lumber, the province's overall export dependency on the U.S., at 69 per cent, is one of the lowest in Canada, which will prove very beneficial given the current economic conditions south of the border."
The industrial goods sector accounts for 24 per cent of the province's total exports, and is expected to increase by 18 per cent in 2008 and 9 per cent in 2009. Expanding global biofuels production and the move to rebuild depleted stocks of crops affected by adverse weather conditions will keep potash demand and prices very strong over the next 2 years. Accordingly, potash export growth will largely be a positive price story. Fertilizers exports are expected to grow approximately 32 per cent in 2008 and 13 per cent in 2009.
The agrifood sector accounts for 33 per cent of the province's total exports, and is expected to grow by 11 per cent in 2008 before posting an expected 1.4 per cent growth in 2009. Wheat and coarse grains consumption is expected to remain ahead of production, which should keep both demand and prices high. This will also continue to benefit the province's agricultural and construction machinery exporters. On the downside, the string of avian flu detected last year in Regina will continue to negatively affect exports of poultry to several Asian countries, including China.
The energy sector accounts for 36 per cent of the province's total exports. High prices, rising uncertainty over royalties in Alberta and plans to increase production, EDC expects oil exports to rise 13 per cent in 2008 and fall 2 per cent in 2009 as prices ease back.
Canadian exports are forecast to decline by 2 per cent in 2008 before posting 2 per cent growth in 2009. Nationally, economic growth is forecast to decline to 1 per cent in 2008 with a slight upturn to 2.3 per cent in 2009. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 3.8 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 2009. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by nearly 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining, is a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis, and has been named one of Canada's Top 100 Employers for seven consecutive years.
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B-roll of Peter Hall's thoughts on Saskatchewan's exports and the forecast for the agrifood sector are available at the FTP site provided below. Additional b-roll for forecasts of the Canadian dollar, the Canadian economy, price of oil and other related topics are also available.
FTP site: ftp://relay1.edc.ca
Password: gef2008
The preview folder is for quick viewing. Please use the download folder for higher grade files suitable for television and radio broadcast use.
Media contact:
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598-2904
Blackberry: ptaylor@edc.ca
