(VANCOUVER) – November 25, 2008 – British Columbia's international exports are expected to grow by 8 per cent in 2009 after strong growth of 24 per cent in 2008, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC). B.C. will fare better than most provinces in 2009, but in light of the weaker Canadian dollar the pace of growth is still relatively modest.
'B.C.'s exports will be among the nation's best in 2009 thanks to a stabilization of sales in the forestry sector and support from the weakening dollar,' said Peter Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist.
The forestry sector accounts for 39 per cent of B.C.'s total international exports, and following a 19 per cent decline in 2008 is expected to rise by a modest 5 per cent next year. Lumber and panel shipments continue to bear the brunt of the U.S. housing sector collapse. Plant closures and layoffs will move markets closer to a demand-supply balance, but EDC expects exports to be soft in 2009 due to continued U.S. weakness. In the pulp segment, exports will decline largely due to financial difficulties that have led to mill closures. Following a 6 per cent rise this year, higher fibre costs will maintain pressure on the industry. Demand for pulp will weaken in 2009 as paper producers continue to cut capacity, resulting in limited export growth.
The province's energy sector has enjoyed high prices this year, lifting exports 40 per cent in 2008. However, slower demand conditions and uncertainty about future production cloud the outlook for B.C.'s coal exports, which represent almost 80 per cent of the national total and over 40 per cent of B.C.'s energy exports. Lower industrial production will result in weaker electricity exports to the U.S. market. Lower natural gas prices will weaken the value of 2009 shipments. However, overall energy exports are forecast to rise 10 per cent in 2009, as natural gas drilling activity improves.
Canadian exports are forecast to grow by 2 per cent in 2008 before declining 1 per cent in 2009. Nationally, economic growth is expected to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2008 with a slight upturn to 1.4 per cent in 2009. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 3.8 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 3.3 per cent 2009. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by nearly 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining, is a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis, and has been named one of Canada's Top 100 Employers for eight consecutive years.
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Media contacts:
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598 2904
BlackBerry: ptaylor@edc.ca
