(HALIFAX) – November 13, 2008 – Nova Scotia's international exports are expected to fall 2 per cent in 2009, erasing the 2 per cent gain in 2008, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
'Since the U.S. is the export destination for 75 per cent of Nova Scotia's international exports, the American slowdown will play a significant part in the province's expected 2009 reversal of its small 2008 gains,' said Peter Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist. 'Lower energy exports will also be a drag on overall growth.'
The energy sector accounts for 23 per cent of Nova Scotia's total international exports, and is heavily influenced by the volatility of refined gas prices. Shipments are forecast to tumble by 17 per cent in 2009 following a 28 per cent surge this year.
Agrifood is another key sector in Nova Scotia, accounting for 22 per cent of the province's exports. Due to a strong Canadian dollar, falling stocks and rising operating costs, the fisheries sector's weak performance is expected to continue through 2009. Fishery exports fell 13 per cent in 2008 and will show no growth in 2009. Increasing competition from low-cost producers and the need to comply with CFIA standards and 'eco-labeling' will continue to increase costs in the fish processing sector. However, EDC is forecasting that international demand for fish and fish products will be maintained and, together with an expected weakening of the currency, will help to ease some of the decline in this sector's export earnings.
The aerospace industry is growing in Nova Scotia and is expected to see strong domestic and international sales. The new C-130J Hercules order will ensure contracts for local companies partnering with Boeing. IMP's Norwegian order will also start showing up in 2009 exports. In addition, Pratt and Whitney's recent investment in its Halifax facility should lead to the production of 250 jet engines per year beginning in 2009. As a result of all this activity, aerospace export earnings are expected to rise 51 per cent and 87 per cent in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
Canadian exports are forecast to grow by 2 per cent in 2008 before declining 1 per cent in 2009. The Canadian economy is expected to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2008 with a slight upturn to 1.4 per cent in 2009. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 3.8 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 3.3 per cent 2009. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by nearly 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining, is a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis, and has been named one of Canada's Top 100 Employers for eight consecutive years.
Media contacts:
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598 2904
BlackBerry: ptaylor@edc.ca
