(OTTAWA) – November 27, 2008 – Saskatchewan's international exports are expected to stall at 1 per cent growth in 2009 after a staggering 48 per cent growth in 2008, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
'Once the commodity pricing peaks of 2008 ease to more subdued levels, Saskatchewan will see growth flatten out despite considerable support from the weaker dollar,' said Peter Hall, Vice-President and Chief EconomiSt. 'When the energy sector is excluded, however, Saskatchewan's export growth is very solid.'
The energy sector accounts for 36.5 per cent of Saskatchewan's total international exports, and is on track to leap forward by 63 per cent in 2008 before declining 12 per cent next year. Growth in crude shipment volumes added to soaring prices in 2008 and will partly offset price-induced export declines in 2009. This is largely a result of record sales of Crown rights and soaring drilling activity.
The agrifood sector accounts for 34 per cent of provincial exports. Higher 2008/2009 global plantings of grains and oilseeds have spurred a retreat from the record prices seen earlier this year. Crops continue to compete for acreage in the face of climbing biofuel demand, increases in emerging market demand for food, and as countries rebuild depleted food stocks. Accordingly, the outlook calls for a tight crop market, including strong pricing for pulses and special crops.
The livestock sector will continue to face economic challenges. Feedgrain costs continue to threaten breakeven outcomes, and the feed cost differential between Canada and the U.S. is increasing the numbers of feeder cattle being sent south of the border. The fate of slaughter cattle destined for export may be bleaker as the implementation of Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling risks reducing demand from U.S. processors and retailers.
Canadian exports are forecast to grow by 2 per cent in 2008 before declining 1 per cent in 2009. The Canadian economy is expected to grow by 0.9 per cent in 2008 with a slight upturn to 1.4 per cent in 2009. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 3.8 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 3.3 per cent 2009. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by nearly 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining, is a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis, and has been named one of Canada's Top 100 Employers for eight consecutive years.
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Media contacts:
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598 2904
BlackBerry: ptaylor@edc.ca
