(OTTAWA) – December 1, 2008 – Manitoba's international exports are expected to remain modestly positive, posting 2 per cent growth in 2009 following lackluster performance this year, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
'Manitoba will see a second year of virtually no growth in 2009. Sharply lower prices for primary products, lower copper production, and the protracted global slowdown are key elements of the weak outlook,' said Peter Hall, Vice-President and Chief Economist. 'All sectors will get needed relief in 2009 from the lower Canadian dollar. Buoying the outlook are vibrant aerospace exports sector and continued strong international demand for the province's agricultural machinery.'
The industrial goods sector accounts for 33 per cent of Manitoba's total international exports, and is expected to decline by 19 per cent in 2008 before declining another 9 per cent in 2009. While nickel volumes will be boosted by strong exploration activity and a rise in the Bucko mine production, falling exports of copper will continue to pull metals into negative territory. With the Flin Flon copper smelter expected to close within the next few years and new environmental regulations lowering production targets, the reduced output will decrease volumes in the metals sector through 2009 and beyond.
Aerospace exports are forecast to rack up impressive 19 per cent growth in 2009. Hot demand for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner has the company's newly-expanded Winnipeg facility humming. Moreover, a healthy flow of military orders is further stoking the sector. Order books for transit buses are also full, a further boost to Manitoba's prospects in 2009.
Canadian exports are forecast to grow by 2 per cent in 2008 before declining 1 per cent in 2009. Nationally, economic growth is forecast to decline to 1 per cent in 2008 with a slight upturn to 2.3 per cent in 2009. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 3.8 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 3.3 per cent 2009. EDC's Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada's export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC's knowledge and partnerships are used by nearly 7,000 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining, is a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis, and has been named one of Canada's Top 100 Employers for eight consecutive years.
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Media contacts:
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598 2904
BlackBerry: ptaylor@edc.ca
