(WINNIPEG) – May 7, 2009 – Manitoba’s exports are forecast to decline by 16 per cent in 2009 before rebounding slightly by 5 per cent in 2010, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
“Manitoba’s exports, though highly diversified, will not emerge untouched by the shocks cascading through the global economy,” said Peter Hall, Chief Economist of EDC.
“While the softer loonie should offer export values a lift, Manitoba’s primary industries will struggle under the sharp corrections in commodity markets. Bucking the trend will be the province’s flagship transportation niches, which stand to benefit from strong forward momentum and forthcoming stimulus dollars.”
The agrifood sector, accounting for 37 per cent of the province’s exports overall, is expected to see exports decline by 16 per cent in 2009 and followed by a 5 per cent increase in 2010.
EDC expects the double-digit increases in canola and wheat production of 2008 and the early part of 2009 to flatten out in the coming season owing to weak planting incentives.
In the livestock sub sector, soft global meat demand, reduced local supplies and regulatory hurdles have further depressed its export outlook.
Sales of agricultural manufacturing and equipment will drop in both years as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, which account for a third of Manitoba’s sector exports, remained challenged by the headwinds of tight credit and currency erosion.
The industrial goods sector accounts for 25 per cent of the province’s overall export picture, and is expected to decline by 29 per cent in 2009 before rebounding by 10 per cent in 2010.
Asian demand for stainless steel has been declining in tandem with the construction industry worldwide. EDC does not expect prices of nickel, copper, and zinc to experience a sustainable recovery during the forecast window. Curtailments in the province’s copper complex and exploration activity dwindling, export volumes are expected to remain dim into the medium-term.
Canadian exports are forecast to decline by 22.2 per cent in 2009 before rebounding by 7.4 per cent in 2010. Nationally, economic growth is expected to decline by 2 per cent in 2009 with a slight increase of 1.7 per cent in 2010. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a 1.3 per cent decline in 2009 and 2.3 per cent increase in 2010 in global GDP. EDC’s Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada’s export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC’s knowledge and partnerships are used by more than 8,300 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining, a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis, and has been recognized as one of Canada’s Top 100 Employers for eight consecutive years.
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Media contact:
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: (613) 598-2904
Blackberry: ptaylor@edc.ca
