(HALIFAX) – Tuesday, October 27, 2009 – Nova Scotia’s provincial exports are forecast to rebound in 2010 by 9 per cent as the gentle recovery of the U.S. consumer begins to take shape toward the end of next year, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).
“Nova Scotia’s 9 per cent bounce in 2010 will be the result of expected improvements in energy prices and U.S. industrial activity, combined with a modest recovery in automobile production, helping the province’s tire production,” said Peter Hall, Chief Economist, EDC. “It is important to keep in mind that this gain follows a 24 per cent drop in 2009, so we’re by no means out of the woods yet.”
The largest export sector in Nova Scotia is energy, accounting for 29 per cent of the province’s total. The province’s exports in this sector declined by 55 per cent in 2009, with an anticipated 23 per cent increase in 2010 as prices are expected to edge upwards. Looking forward, projects like Deep Panuke and Chebucto field should have a positive impact on export volumes through 2013.
Agrifood is the second largest export sector in Nova Scotia, accounting for 18.6 per cent of the province’s total. After holding steady with a 1 per cent gain in 2009, Nova Scotia’s agrifood exports are forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2010.
“Weak global demand for luxury seafood products, together with situations of supply curtailments, will continue to hinder the performance of Nova Scotia’s fishery exports,” said Mr. Hall.
Mr. Hall also added that “demand for lobster, crab, shrimp and scallops will continue to suffer the effects of the global recession. On the upside, a larger number of fisheries are being certified as sustainable by the Marine Stewardship Council and, by fostering product differentiation, they are expected to maintain their international market shares.”
Canadian exports are forecast to contract 23 per cent in 2009 before rebounding 6 per cent in 2010. Nationally, economic growth is expected to fall by 2.3 per cent in 2009 with an upturn to 1.9 per cent in 2010. Internationally, EDC is forecasting a decline of 1.3 per cent in 2009 and 2.9 per cent growth in 2010. EDC’s Global Export Forecast is available at http://www.edc.ca/gef.
EDC is Canada’s export credit agency, offering innovative commercial solutions to help Canadian exporters and investors expand their international business. EDC’s knowledge and partnerships are used by more than 8,300 Canadian companies and their global customers in up to 200 markets worldwide each year. EDC is financially self-sustaining, a recognized leader in financial reporting and economic analysis, and has been named one of Canada’s Top 100 Employers for nine consecutive years.
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Media contacts:
Phil Taylor
Export Development Canada
Tel: 613.291.1276
BlackBerry: ptaylor@edc.ca
