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The Department of Finance today released the results of the survey of private sector economic forecasters conducted in March 2010.
Near-Term Growth Outlook Has Improved
Overall, the March survey results suggest that the near-term outlook has improved since the December survey was conducted. The average forecast from the December survey formed the basis of the fiscal projections in Budget 2010. For 2010, private sector forecasters have revised up their forecasts for both real and nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and have revised down their forecast for the unemployment rate.
Medium-Term Growth Outlook Largely Unchanged
Over the medium term, the private sector average growth outlook remains broadly the same as in Budget 2010. As a result of stronger expected growth in 2010, the level of nominal GDP is expected to be about $14 billion higher in 2014 than projected in the budget. This suggests that the medium-term fiscal forecast presented in Budget 2010 remains on track. The Government will provide an updated medium-term fiscal forecast this fall.
About the Forecast
The Department of Finance regularly surveys about 15 private sector economists for their views on key economic variables. The average of these private sector forecasts has been used as the basis for fiscal planning since Budget 1994. Use of private sector forecasts introduces an element of independence into the fiscal forecast. This approach is widely endorsed by such organizations as the International Monetary Fund.
For further information, media may contact:
David Barnabe
Media Relations
Department of Finance
613-996-8080
