Briefing binder created for the Deputy Minister of Finance on the occasion of his appearance before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts on November 22, 2022 on the study: Public Accounts of Canada 2022

Table of Contents

Meeting Scenario

Issue Notes

Variance vs. Budget 2022
Inflation – Impact on Financial Statements
Canada Health Transfer – Request from Provinces
Public Debt Charges
Pollution Pricing Framework and Climate Action Incentive
Trans Mountain Expansion
CMHC Mortgage Insurance Limits
Fiscal Impact of Quantitative Easing

Background

Committee Member Bios (Prepared by Treasury Board Secretariat)

Meeting Background and Scenario

House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts (PACP)
Department of Finance Appearance on the Public Accounts of Canada 2022

November 18, 2022 – 1 pm to 3 pm
November 22, 2022 – 3:30 to 5:30 pm

Committee Mandate and Study of the Public Accounts of Canada

Role of Department and Deputy Minister of Finance in Preparing the Public Accounts

November 18 and 22 Meetings: Questions and Answers

Forecast variance for 2021-22

Issue

The government recorded a deficit of $90.2 billion in 2021-22, an improvement of $23.6 billion relative to Budget 2022.

The year-over-year improvement in the budgetary balance reflects the strong recovery of the Canadian economy from the effects of the pandemic as nominal GDP (the broadest measure of the tax base) was higher than expected reflecting, in particular, the impact of rising commodity prices.

Background

The $90.2-billion deficit recorded in 2021-22 was $23.6 billion lower than the $113.8‑billion deficit projected in the April 2022 federal budget.

Impact of Inflation on Financial Statements

Issue

Price inflation results in both higher revenues and expenses. With respect to revenues, higher prices for Canadian produced goods and services leads to higher incomes, which in turn fuel higher tax revenues. The personal income tax system is indexed to inflation, however, meaning that tax brackets and credits rise with CPI inflation. This indexation is meant to ensure that Canadians only pay additional taxes on real income gains.

The government’s expenses also rise with inflation as many benefits are indexed to CPI, including elderly benefits and the Canada Child Benefit. In addition, the Canada Health Transfer and Equalization are indexed to nominal GDP growth, which is also affected by GDP inflation.

Based on Department of Finance sensitivity analysis, a one percentage point increase in nominal GDP inflation would mean about $2 billion annually, on average, in additional net revenue (i.e. increase in revenues less the increase in expenses) over the medium term – all else equal. That said, this analysis has important caveats:

  1. It does not take into account that higher inflation leads to higher interest rates – which lead to higher public debt charges for the government. 
  2. The more inflation is sustained, the costs of goods and services will also rise for the government, meaning higher costs for providing services and benefits to Canadians – this is not fully reflected in the above analysis.

Background

GDP inflation refers to an increase in the price of all goods and services that are produced in Canada (net of import price increases). When the price of goods and services Canada produces rises, after accounting for import prices, Canada’s national income rises – and the federal government will see an increase in its income tax revenues. National income is composed of business income (i.e. corporate profits) and personal income (i.e. wages and salaries and investment and other income).

The federal government derives about 70% of its revenues from income taxes – so boosts to national income have a significant impact on federal revenues – the same can be said for provinces. The largest sources of revenue for the federal government are those stemming from personal income taxes (48%) and corporate income taxes (19%).

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation refers to an increase in the price of goods and services consumed by Canadians. An increase in the CPI erodes the purchasing power of Canadians, in particular if their incomes are not growing as fast as CPI. Many individual Canadians have not seen their incomes rise as fast as CPI inflation – *redacted*. This is why the government has announced its Affordability Plan, which targets support to those individuals who need the greatest help with coping with CPI inflation.

In addition, many of the government’s transfer programs are indexed, in order to protect Canadians from the negative consequences from inflation. Notably:

Canada Health Transfer

Issue

Since September 2020, provincial and territorial premiers have been seeking an increase to the Canada Health Transfer to cover 35 per cent of their health expenditures and maintain it at this level.

Background

Discussions with provinces and territories

Canada Health Transfer

Public Debt Charges

Issue

After reaching historic lows as a per cent of GDP in 2020-21, public debt charges increased by $4.1 billion, or 20.3 per cent, in 2021-22 to reach 1.0 per cent of GDP.

Background

Chart 1
Public Debt Charges (1990-91 to 2027-28)
Chart 1: Public Debt Charges (1990-91 to 2027-28)

Please note that due to a transcription error, the years 2024-25 and 2025-26 were mislabelled.

Text version
Year Actual FES 2022 Forecast FES 2022 Downside Impact
1990-91 6.5    
1991-92 6.3    
1992-93 5.8    
1993-94 5.4    
1994-95 5.6    
1995-96 5.9    
1996-97 5.5    
1997-98 4.8    
1998-99 4.6    
1999-00 4.3    
2000-01 4.0    
2001-02 3.5    
2002-03 3.1    
2003-04 2.9    
2004-05 2.6    
2005-06 2.4    
2006-07 2.3    
2007-08 2.1    
2008-09 1.7    
2009-10 1.7    
2010-11 1.7    
2011-12 1.6    
2012-13 1.4    
2013-14 1.3    
2014-15 1.2    
2015-16 1.1    
2016-17 1.0    
2017-18 1.0    
2018-19 1.0    
2019-20 1.1    
2020-21 0.9    
2021-22 1.0    
2022-23   1.2 1.3
2023-24   1.5 1.7
2023-24   1.4 1.6
2024-25   1.4 1.6
2026-27   1.4 1.6
2027-28   1.3 1.6
Table 1
Reference Table
Fiscal Year PDC ($ billions) % of GDP Fiscal Year PDC ($ billions) % of GDP Downside
PDC ($b) % GDP
1990-91 45.0 6.5 2009-10 26.6 1.7    
1991-92 43.9 6.3 2010-11 28.6 1.7    
1992-93 41.3 5.8 2011-12 29.0 1.6    
1993-94 40.1 5.4 2012-13 25.5 1.4    
1994-95 44.2 5.6 2013-14 24.7 1.3    
1995-96 49.4 5.9 2014-15 24.2 1.2    
1996-97 47.3 5.5 2015-16 21.8 1.1    
1997-98 43.1 4.8 2016-17 21.2 1.0    
1998-99 43.3 4.6 2017-18 21.9 1.0    
1999-00 43.4 4.3 2018-19 23.3 1.0    
2000-01 43.9 4.0 2019-20 24.4 1.1    
2001-02 39.7 3.5 2020-21 20.4 0.9    
2002-03 37.3 3.1 2021-22 24.5 1.0    
2003-04 35.8 2.9 2022-23 34.7 1.2 36.0 1.3
2004-05 34.1 2.6 2023-24 43.3 1.5 48.0 1.7
2005-06 33.8 2.4 2023-24 42.7 1.4 48.0 1.6
2006-07 33.9 2.3 2024-25 42.9 1.4 49.9 1.6
2007-08 33.3 2.1 2026-27 44.1 1.4 52.4 1.6
2008-09 28.3 1.7 2027-28 44.8 1.3 52.0 1.6

Please note that due to a transcription error, the years 2024-25 and 2025-26 were mislabelled.

Source: Fiscal Reference Tables, Department of Finance Canada Calculations

Table 2
From Table A1.1
  2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2022-2026
3-month treasury bill rate
Budget 2022 0.8 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.1 - 1.7
2022 Fall Economic Statement 2.2 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.6
Downside Scenario 2.4 4.4 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.3
10-year government bond rate
Budget 2022 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 - 2.6
2022 Fall Economic Statement 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9
Downside Scenario 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.1
Consumer Price Index Inflation
Budget 2022 3.9 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 - 2.5
2022 Fall Economic Statement 6.8 3.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.3
Downside Scenario 6.8 5.3 2.5 1.6 2.0 2.1 3.7

Pollution Pricing Framework and Climate Action Incentive

Issue

The federal government must return all direct proceeds from the federal carbon pollution pricing system within the jurisdiction where they were collected. However, in the Public Accounts, the proceeds collected and the proceeds returned from the federal system are not equal in any given fiscal year.

Additionally, the Conservative Party tabled a dissenting report on the committee’s 2021 public accounts report, indicating that the Public Accounts 2021 “showed that $100 million of the carbon tax was diverted to spending programs and not returned to Canadians” and recommended “that the PBO present an independent and true analysis of the carbon tax, its effect on inflation and the GDP and the claim of revenue neutrality”.

Background

In jurisdictions that request the federal system – Prince Edward Island (OBPS only), Yukon and Nunavut – proceeds are returned directly to the the government.

In other jurisdictions where the backstop is imposed (currently Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta), the bulk of fuel charge proceeds (about 90 per cent) is returned directly to households through Climate Action Incentive (CAI) payments. The remaining fuel charge proceeds (about 10 per cent) are returned to certain sectors in these PTs through other federal mechanisms, including programming. Proceeds from the federal OBPS in these jurisdictions are returned via federal programing.

Generally, proceeds collected and proceeds returned within a fiscal year under the above mechanisms will not match in the Public Accounts, on an annual basis. This is entirely due to timing considerations.

In the 2022 Public Accounts, the amount of proceeds returned decreased, and was significantly lower than the amount of proceeds received. This decrease almost entirely reflects the change in the delivery of CAI payments, from an annual refundable credit on personal income tax returns to a quarterly benefit.

Note that the government also reports the source and disposition of carbon pricing proceeds in the annual GGPPA Report (the last report, covering the 2020-21 fuel charge year, was tabled in the House of Commons in March 2022). These figures will always differ from the Public Accounts data presented below. This is because the GGPPA Report presents proceeds and disbursments in respect of the fiscal year to which they pertain. In contrast, the Public Accounts attributes these amounts to the fiscal year in which they were assessed.

Table 3
Pollution Pricing Proceeds, as per the Public Accounts 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022
($ Millions)
  2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Carbon price NA $20/tCO2e $30/tCO2e $40/tCO2e
Total proceeds collected - 2,655  4,380  6,341
Of which
Fuel charge proceeds
- 2,655 4,219 6,106
Excess emissions charges from the OBPS
- - 161 235
Total proceeds returned 664 2,636  4,566  3,814
Of which
Transfers to ‘voluntary’ backstop jurisdictions
- 6 19 52
Total CAI payments
664 2,630 4,547 3,762
Proceeds return via federal programming
- 7 98 No information in 2021-22 Public Accounts.

Trans Mountain Expansion

Issue

The Government of Canada has provided financing in support of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (the Project).

Background

In 2017, Kinder Morgan published a cost estimate of $7.4 billion that did not include a detailed engineering assessment or all of the detailed work plans. In August 2018, the Government of Canada purchased the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMP), the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) and related assets for $4.4 billion.

In 2020, TMC revised the cost estimate to $12.6 billion to reflect improvements to the Project as well as the approximately one-year delay due to the Federal Court of Appeal’s 2018 decision to quash the Project’s original certificate.

In 2021-22, the Government of Canada provided $6.3 billion in financing to the Canada Development Investment Corporation from the Canada Account to finance construction activities for the Trans Mountain Expansion Project.

As announced on February 18, 2022, the revised cost estimate of $21.4 billion and in-service date of late 2023 provides a more comprehensive accounting of additional Project enhancements as well as schedule pressures including delays arising from COVID, BC floods and other factors, cost overruns, safety enhancements, and financing costs.

The government announced in February 2022 that it will no longer provide public money to the Trans Mountain Expansion Project going forward. Instead, the Trans Mountain Corporation (TMC) will finance the Project using public capital markets and financial institutions.

With more than 65 per cent of the Project built and significantly de-risked, there is no longer a need for the government to be financing the Project going forward.

The acquisition of TMC and the construction of the Project up until 2022 was funded with loans from the Government of Canada, via the Canada Account. The Canada Account is used to support export transactions which are determined by the Minister for International Trade to be in Canada's national interest.

In April 2022, Trans Mountain Corporation entered into a $10-billion loan facility with a syndicate of lenders, with a guarantee provided by the government.

Bridge financing provided through the Canada Account between the February 18 announcement and the April 2022 closing of the third-party loan facility was repaid using the syndicated bank facility.

On April 28, TMC became a non-agent Crown corporation. This allowed it to seek financing from capital markets. TMC remains a wholly owned subsidiary of CDEV, and its reporting relationship to CDEV remains unchanged.

Indigenous Economic Participation

Since 2019, Finance Canada has been leading the Government’s engagement with Indigenous communities on the Crown consultation list for the project on economic participation in Trans Mountain. 

To ensure that these Indigenous groups have sufficient financial resources to participate meaningfully in the engagement process, Finance Canada is providing contribution funding to these groups through the Indigenous Participant Funding Program. Contribution funding supports costs related securing financial, legal, scientific, technical and other expertise, building internal capacity, and accessing professional services.

Finance Canada signed 71 contribution agreements with Indigenous groups and other related entities in order to support its engagement process. To date, Finance Canada has provided nearly $2.9 million in contribution funding.

129 Indigenous groups were invited to participate in an engagement process about economic participation in the Project and what that participation could look like. Over 100 Indigenous groups have participated in the engagement process. This engagement process has yielded rich and valuable feedback.

The government recently appointed a Senior Advisor to the Deputy Minister of Finance to act as the special representative for the Deputy Minister on Indigenous relations associated with the Trans Mountain pipeline project.

The government will announce the next step toward Indigenous economic participation later in 2022.

The CMHC’s Mortgage Insurance Fund

Issue

The term ‘Mortgage Insurance Fund’ in the Public Accounts refers to the government’s public mortgage insurance, provided through Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).  In the past, Parliamentarians have asked questions about the Government’s exposure to the housing market.
Below is an anticipated question:

Is the Mortgage Insurance Fund solvent?

Background

Table 4
Government-guaranteed mortgage insurance
($ Billions)

As at March 31, 2022
CMHC
(Volume 1 – Table 11.8)
(pg. 394, English)
(pg. 406, French)
Private mortgage insurers
(Volume 1 – Table 11.6)
(pg. 389, English)
(pg. 401, French)
Total
Legislative limit 750 350 1,100
Insurance-in-force 394 258 652

N.B. CMHC legislative limit was temporarily increased to $750 billion effective March 2020 to deliver measures in response to COVID-19 but will revert to pre-COVID level of $600 billion in 2025.

Quantitative Easing - Fiscal Impact

Issue

The government recorded a net loss totalling $1 billion in 2021-22 in respect of the Bank of Canada's purchases of Government of Canada bonds on the secondary market.

Background

Committee Member Bios

Standing Committee on Public Accounts (PACP)

Mandate of the Committee

When the Speaker tables a report by the Auditor General in the House of Commons, it is automatically referred to the Public Accounts Committee. The Committee selects the chapters of the report it wants to study and calls the Auditor General and senior public servants from the audited organizations to appear before it to respond to the Office of the Auditor General’s findings. The Committee also reviews the federal government’s consolidated financial statements – the Public Accounts of Canada – and examines financial and/or accounting shortcomings raised by the Auditor General. At the conclusion of a study, the Committee may present a report to the House of Commons that includes recommendations to the government for improvements in administrative and financial practices and controls of federal departments and agencies.

Government policy, and the extent to which policy objectives are achieved, are generally not examined by the Public Accounts Committee. Instead, the Committee focuses on government administration – the economy and efficiency of program delivery as well as the adherence to government policies, directives and standards. The Committee seeks to hold the government to account for effective public administration and due regard for public funds.

Pursuant to Standing Order 108(3) of the House of Commons, the mandate of the Standing Committee on Public Accounts is to review and report on:

The Committee also reviews:

Other Responsibilities:

Table A1
Committee Members
Name & Role Party Riding PACP Member Since
Chair
John Williamson Conservative New Brunswick Southwest February 2022
Vice-Chair
Jean Yip Liberal Scarborough—Agincourt January 2018
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
Critic for Public Accounts; Pandemic Programs; Economic Development Agencies
Bloc Québécois Terrebonne December 2021
Members
Garnett Genuis
Critic for International Development
Conservative Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan October 2022
Michael Kram Conservative Regina—Wascana October 2022
Kelly McCauley
Conservative Edmonton West October 2022
Blake Desjarlais
Critic for TBS; Diversity and Inclusion; Youth; Sport and PSE
New Democratic Party Edmonton Greisbach December 2021
Valerie Bradford Liberal Kitchener South – Hespeler December 2021
Han Dong Liberal Don Valley North December 2021
Peter Fragiskatos
Parliamentary Secretary National Revenue
Liberal London North Centre December 2021
Brenda Shanahan Liberal Châteauguay—Lacolle December 2021; and Jan 2016 – Jan 2018

Bios of the Committee Members

John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest)
Conservative
Chair

Photo - John Williamson
  • Elected as MP for New Brunswick Southwest in 2011, he was then defeated in 2015 and re-elected in 2019 & 2021.
  • Currently also serves as a Member of the Liaison Committee and Chair of the           Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure of the Standing Committee on Public Accounts
  • Previously served on many committees, including PACP for a brief time in 2013
  • Prior to his election, M. Williamson occupied different positions. He was an editorial writer for the National Post from 1998 to 2001, then joined the Canadian Taxpayers Federation until 2008. In 2009, he was hired by Stephen Harper as director of communications in the PMO.

Jean Yip (Scarborough - Agincourt)
Liberal
First Vice-Chair

Photo - Jean Yip
  • Elected as MP for Scarborough—Agincourt in a by-election on December 11, 2017, and re-elected in 2019 & 2021.
  • Has served on Public Accounts (since 2018), as well as Government Operations and Canada-China committees in the past.
  • Vice-Chair of the Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure of the Standing Committee on Public Accounts
  • Before her election, Ms. Yip was an insurance underwriter and constituency assistant.

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné (Terrebonne)
Bloc Québécois
Second Vice-Chair

Photo - Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
  • Elected as MP for Terrebonne in the 2021 federal election.
  • BQ Critic for Public Accounts; Pandemic Programs; and Federal Economic Development Agencies.
  • Vice-Chair of the Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure of the Standing Committee on Public Accounts
  • Worked at the European Investment Bank and at PWC London.
  • Return to Quebec in 2017 to pursue a career in the Quebec business world.

Garnett Genuis (Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan)
Conservative

Photo - Garnett Genuis
  • Elected as MP for Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan in 2015, re-elected ion 2019 and 2021
  • Conservative Shadow Minister for International Development
  • Also serves on the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development
  • Served on multiple standing committees in the past, including Citizenship and Immigration, Canada-China Relations and Scrutiny of Regulations
  • Prior to his election, Mr. Genuis was an assistant to former Prime Minister Stephen Harper and adviser on the staff of former minister Rona Ambrose.

Michael Kram (Regina—Wascana)
Conservative

Photo - Michael Kram
  • Elected as MP for Regina—Wascana in 2019, and re-elected in 2021.
  • Served as Vice-Chair of the Standing Committee on Industry and Technology, as well as a Member of the standing committees on Transpart, Infrastration and Communities and International Trade
  • Prior to his election, Mr. Kram worked for 20 years in the information technology sector, including a number of contract positions with the Department of National Defence.

Kelly McCauley (Edmonton-West)
Conservative

Photo - Kelly McCauley
  • Elected as the Member of Parliament in 2015 for Edmonton West, re-elected in 2019 and 2021
  • Also serves as Chair of the Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates
  • Former Conservative Shadow Minister for Treasury Board
  • Previously served on the COVID-19 Pandemic committee as well as the Subcomittee on Agenda and Procedure of OGGO in 2020
  • Before his election in 2015, Mr. McCauley was a hospitality executive specialized in managing hotels and convention centres
  • He has a graduate of BCIT in the Hospitality Management program
  • He has a history of advocacy for seniors and veterans

Blake Desjarlais (Edmonton Greisbach)
NDP

Photo - Blake Desjarlais
  • Elected as MP for Edmonton Greisbach in 2021.
  • NDP Critic for Treasury Board; Diversity and Inclusion; Youth; Sport; and Post-secondary Education.
  • Also a member of the Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure of the Standing Committee on Public Accounts
  • First openly Two-Spirit person to be an MP, and Alberta’s only Indigenous Member of Parliament.

Valerie Bradford (Kitchener South – Hespeler)
Liberal

Photo - Valerie Bradford
  • Elected as MP for Kitchener South – Hespeler in 2021.
  • Also sits on the Science and Research committee and the Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure of the Standing Committee on Science and Research
  • Director of the Canada-Africa Association
  • Prior to her election, Ms. Bradford worked as an economic development professional for the City of Kitchener.

Han Dong (Don Valley North)
Liberal

Photo - Han Dong
  • Elected as MP for Don Valley North in 2019, and re-elected in 2021.
  • Also sits on the Industry and Technology committee.
  • Has served on the Ethics, and Human Resources committees in the past.
  • Co-Chair of the Canada-China Legislative Association
  • Prior to his election, Mr. Dong worked with Toronto-based high-tech company dedicated to building safer communities and served as the leader of the Chinatown Gateway Committee established by Mayor John Tory.

Peter Fragiskatos (London North Centre)
Liberal
Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of National Revenue

Photo - Peter Fragiskatos
  • Elected as MP for London North Centre in 2015, and re-elected in 2019 & 2021.
  • Serves as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of National Revenue.
  • Has served on the Finance, Canada-China, Human Resources, Public Safety, and Foreign Affairs committees in the past.
  • Served as a member of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP).
  • Prior to his election, Mr. Fragiskatos was a political science professor at Huron University College and King’s University College, as well as a frequent media commentator on international issues.

Brenda Shanahan (Châteauguay—Lacolle)
Liberal

Photo - Brenda Shanahan
  • Elected as MP for Châteauguay—Lacolle in 2015, and re-elected in 2019 & 2021.
  • Caucus Chair of the Liberal Party
  • Has served on Public Accounts (2016-2018), as well as Ethics, Government Operations, and MAID committees in the past.
  • Has served as a member of the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP).
  • Prior to her election, Ms. Shanahan was a banker and social worker, who has also been involved in a number of organizations such as Amnesty International and the Canadian Federation of University Women.

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