Finance Canada's Transition Binder, December 2025
Holiday Reading
December 23, 2025
Table of contents
Trade, Tariffs, Defence
- *Redacted*
- Country-specific tariff review options paper
- Update on 2025-26 Defence Spending
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
Economic, Fiscal, and Budget Planning
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- Summary of the December 2025 Survey of Private Sector Economists
- *Redacted*
- Fiscal Monitor for October 2025
*Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
- *Redacted*
* Given the Deputy Minister's experience with the Department of Finance he did not require the standard transition binder explaining the context of the Department's work. Instead, a number of existing briefing notes were provided to provide context on issues facing the Department at the time of his appointment. The memoranda contained sensitive information including Confidences of the King's Privy Council for Canada and economic and policy advice and options regarding international issues. As required, redactions were applied in accordance with the Access to Information Act.
Briefing note to the Minister of Finance and National Revenue
China tariff review – options paper
For Information
2025FIN047636
Issue
- When the Government announced it would impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), steel, and aluminum from China in October 2024, it indicated it intended to review the tariffs within one year. The review process involved targeted consultations to directly affected stakeholders, as well as provinces and territories, and analysis from multiple implicated government departments. In the context of the review process, China indicated that it is prepared to remove certain of its tariffs if Canada was to notably remove the tariffs on EVs.
- The attached paper provides considerations and options *portion of bullet redacted*.
- *Bullet redacted*.
Assessment
*Bullets redacted*.
Next steps
*Bullet redacted*.
Drafted by: Paul Huynh, International Trade and Finance Branch
ADM: Patrick Halley, *redacted*
Signed by: Chris Forbes, Deputy Minister
c.c. Alison O'Leary
Attachment: *Redacted*
*Document Redacted*
Briefing note to the Minister of Finance and National Revenue
Update on 2025-26 defence spending
For Information
2025FIN047628
Issue
*Bullet redacted*
Background
- In June, the Prime Minister committed to reach the NATO 2 per cent defence spending target in 2025-26.
- *Bullets redacted*
Assessment
*Bullets redacted*
Drafted by: Jonathan Grossman, EDCF ADM: Sam Millar, *redacted*
Signed by: Alison O'Leary
(for) Chris Forbes, Deputy Minister
c.c. Alison O'Leary
*Annex Redacted*
Briefing note to the Minister of Finance and National Revenue
Summary of the December 2025 Survey of Private Sector Economists
For Information
2025FIN048017
Issue
- The Department of Finance surveyed private sector forecasters between November 28th and December 12th following the release of the third quarter 2025 National Accounts to get updated views on economic and policy developments and their implications for the economic outlook. This note summarizes the survey results and provides an early assessment of potential fiscal implications.
Background
- The Canadian economy has shown resilience, with real GDP growth in the third quarter surprising on the upside and the labour market stabilizing. Recent upward revisions to data on demand and estimates of productive capacity reveal that Canada's economy over the past three years was stronger than previously thought, which likely explains why recent economic data have shown more resilience than expected. *Sentence redacted*.
- *Bullets redacted*
Assessment
*Bullets redacted*
Drafted by: Carl Gaudreault and Guillaume Barbeau-Roberge, Economic and Fiscal Policy Branch
ADM: Evelyn Dancey, *redacted*
Chief Economist and Associate ADM: Julie Turcotte *redacted*
Signed by: Chris Forbes, Deputy Minister
c.c. Alison O'Leary
Background
December 2025 Private Sector Survey Results (Annex A provides detailed tables)
- The global and the Canadian economies has shown resilience, but the historic rise in U.S. tariffs is reshaping global trade and weighing on growth prospects. This reflects a new trading environment in which the U.S. has introduced a broad range of product- and country-specific tariffs affecting nearly all major trading partners. The breadth of these measures, together with ongoing uncertainty, continues to weigh on confidence, investment, and growth both globally and in Canada.
- In the December survey, private sector forecasters incorporated the most recent tariff measures, trade policy developments, and their expectations regarding potential tariff de-escalation. Their assumptions on U.S. tariffs are summarized in Table 1.
- *Bullets redacted*
- Following GDP growth exceeding expectations in the third quarter, at 2.6 per cent annualized, *Portion of bullet redacted*.
- *Bullets redacted*
- Survey results are summarized as follows (Tables 2 and 3 provide detailed annual and quarterly forecasts):
- *Bullets redacted*
- Potential Fiscal Implications
- Next steps: The Department will continue to monitor economic developments and keep you apprised of major developments. *Portion of bullet redacted*.
*Charts and tables redacted*
Briefing note to the Minister of Finance and National Revenue
Fiscal Monitor for October 2025
For Information
2025FIN047931
Issue
- The October 2025 Fiscal Monitor will be published on Wednesday, December 24. For the first seven months of the 2025-26 fiscal year, there was a budgetary deficit of $18.4 billion, compared to a deficit of $14.5 billion reported for the same period of 2024-25. The increase in the deficit was due mainly to growth in expenses, which more than offset growth in revenues.
Background
- The Fiscal Monitor is a departmental publication that communicates the government's consolidated monthly and year-to-date financial results. It is typically published on the last Friday of the second month following the end of the accounting period, but publication is advanced before the Christmas holidays in December.
Assessment
*Bullets redacted*
Drafted by: Bernice Tong and Michael Wong, Economic and Fiscal Policy
ADM: Evelyn Dancey, *redacted*
Signed by: Chris Forbes, Deputy Minister
c.c. Alison O'Leary
*Annex Redacted*
*Bullets redacted*