Archived - The Fiscal Monitor A publication of the Department of Finance: 2016-01

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The Fiscal Monitor provides an overview of monthly and year-to-date financial results for the Government of Canada. It is prepared in accordance with the same accounting policies used in the annual audited financial statements of the Government of Canada. Summary financial results reported in The Fiscal Monitor are based on financial transactions recorded in the Accounts of Canada, maintained by the Receiver General for Canada.

There can be significant volatility in monthly results due to the timing of revenue receipts and expense recognition. For instance, a large share of government spending is typically reported in the March Fiscal Monitor. For fiscal year 2015–16, while a surplus is expected for February, Budget 2016 projects that the cumulative budgetary balance will deteriorate to reach a year-end deficit of $5.4 billion.

In this context, the year-to-date cumulative surplus is expected to be overtaken by:

March budgetary balance

March budgetary balance - For details, refer to preceding paragraphs.

January 2016: budgetary surplus of $1.1 billion

There was a budgetary surplus of $1.1 billion in January 2016, compared to a surplus of $2.2 billion in January 2015. Revenues increased by $1.4 billion, or 5.4 per cent, reflecting increases in most revenue streams. Program expenses increased by $2.5 billion, or 11.8 per cent, reflecting increases in major transfers to persons and other levels of government and direct program expenses. Public debt charges increased by $1 million, or 0.1 per cent.

April 2015 to January 2016: budgetary surplus of $4.3 billion

For the April 2015 to January 2016 period of the 2015–16 fiscal year, the Government posted a budgetary surplus of $4.3 billion, compared to a surplus of $1.3 billion reported for the same period of 2014–15. Revenues were up $15.6 billion, or 7.0 per cent, reflecting increases in all revenue streams. Program expenses were up $13.7 billion, or 6.9 per cent, reflecting increases in major transfers to persons and other levels of government and direct program expenses. Public debt charges were down $1.1 billion, or 4.8 per cent, largely reflecting lower average effective interest rates on Government of Canada bonds and treasury bills.

There was a budgetary surplus of $1.1 billion in January 2016, compared to a surplus of $2.2 billion in January 2015.

Revenues in January 2016 totalled $26.8 billion, up $1.4 billion, or 5.4 per cent, from January 2015.

Program expenses in January 2016 were $23.7 billion, up $2.5 billion, or 11.8 per cent, from January 2015.

Public debt charges increased by $1 million, or 0.1 per cent.

For the April 2015 to January 2016 period of the 2015–16 fiscal year, there was a budgetary surplus of $4.3 billion, compared to a surplus of $1.3 billion reported during the same period of 2014–15.

Revenues increased by $15.6 billion, or 7.0 per cent, to $238.8 billion.

For the April 2015 to January 2016 period, program expenses were $212.8 billion, up $13.7 billion, or 6.9 per cent, from the same period the previous year.

Public debt charges decreased by $1.1 billion, or 4.8 per cent, largely reflecting lower average effective interest rates on Government of Canada bonds and treasury bills.

Revenues and expenses (April 2015 to January 2016)

Revenues and expenses (April 2015 to January 2016) - For details, refer to preceding paragraphs.
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

The budgetary balance is presented on an accrual basis of accounting, recording government revenues and expenses when they are earned or incurred, regardless of when the cash is received or paid. In contrast, the financial source/requirement measures the difference between cash coming in to the Government and cash going out. This measure is affected not only by changes in the budgetary balance but also by the cash source/requirement resulting from the Government’s investing activities through its acquisition of capital assets and its loans, financial investments and advances, as well as from other activities, including payment of accounts payable and collection of accounts receivable, foreign exchange activities, and the amortization of its tangible capital assets. The difference between the budgetary balance and financial source/requirement is recorded in non-budgetary transactions.

With a budgetary surplus of $4.3 billion and a financial requirement of $21.5 billion from non-budgetary transactions, there was a financial requirement of $17.3 billion for the April 2015 to January 2016 period, compared to a financial requirement of $6.1 billion for the same period the previous year.

The Government financed its financial requirement of $17.3 billion and increased cash balances by $22.2 billion by increasing unmatured debt by $39.5 billion. The increase in unmatured debt was achieved primarily through the issuance of marketable bonds and treasury bills.

The level of cash balances varies from month to month based on a number of factors including periodic large debt maturities, which can be quite volatile on a monthly basis. Cash balances at the end of January 2016 stood at $50.1 billion, up $13.4 billion from their level at the end of January 2015.

Table 1
Summary statement of transactions
$ millions

January April to January


2015 2016 2014–15 2015–16
Budgetary transactions
Revenues 25,415 26,775 223,282 238,839
Expenses
Program expenses -21,232 -23,732 -199,059 -212,766
Public debt charges -1,972 -1,973 -22,914 -21,805


Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus) 2,211 1,070 1,309 4,268
Non-budgetary transactions -8,983 -629 -7,382 -21,539


Financial source/requirement -6,772 441 -6,073 -17,271
Net change in financing activities 15,407 10,752 16,769 39,466


Net change in cash balances 8,635 11,193 10,696 22,195
Cash balance at end of period 36,768 50,146
Note: Positive numbers indicate a net source of funds. Negative numbers indicate a net requirement for funds.

Table 2
Revenues

January April to January


2015
($ millions)
2016
($ millions)
Change
(%)
2014–15
($ millions)
2015–16
($ millions)
Change
(%)
Tax revenues
Income taxes
Personal income tax 12,869 13,545 5.3 110,659 116,843 5.6
Corporate income tax 2,793 2,907 4.1 26,949 31,330 16.3
Non-resident income tax 977 1,080 10.5 5,213 5,519 5.9


Total income tax 16,639 17,532 5.4 142,821 153,692 7.6
Excise taxes and duties
Goods and Services Tax 2,583 2,778 7.5 26,743 28,654 7.1
Energy taxes 460 455 -1.1 4,610 4,756 3.2
Customs import duties 356 440 23.6 3,775 4,447 17.8
Other excise taxes and duties 424 428 0.9 4,935 5,073 2.8


Total excise taxes and duties 3,823 4,101 7.3 40,063 42,930 7.2


Total tax revenues 20,462 21,633 5.7 182,884 196,622 7.5
Employment Insurance premiums 2,718 2,750 1.2 17,220 17,772 3.2
Other revenues 2,235 2,392 7.0 23,178 24,445 5.5


Total revenues 25,415 26,775 5.4 223,282 238,839 7.0
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Table 3
Expenses

January April to January


2015
($ millions)
2016
($ millions)
Change
(%)
2014–15
($ millions)
2015–16
($ millions)
Change
(%)
Major transfers to persons
Elderly benefits 3,696 3,865 4.6 36,232 37,706 4.1
Employment Insurance benefits 1,673 2,127 27.1 14,565 15,980 9.7
Children's benefits 1,063 1,464 37.7 10,821 14,914 37.8


Total 6,432 7,456 15.9 61,618 68,600 11.3
Major transfers to other levels
of government
Support for health and other
social programs
Canada Health Transfer 2,676 2,836 6.0 26,762 28,354 5.9
Canada Social Transfer 1,048 1,080 3.1 10,485 10,799 3.0


Total 3,724 3,916 5.2 37,247 39,153 5.1
Fiscal arrangements and other transfers1 1,641 1,703 3.8 17,077 17,562 2.8
Canada's cities and communities 28 28 0.0 1,932 1,910 -1.1
Quebec Abatement -376 -148 -60.6 -3,758 -3,710 -1.3


Total 5,017 5,499 9.6 52,498 54,915 4.6
Direct program expenses
Transfer payments
Aboriginal Affairs and
Northern Development
487 1,248 156.3 4,966 5,922 19.3
Agriculture and Agri-Food 96 114 18.8 764 962 25.9
Employment and Social Development 785 890 13.4 4,758 4,858 2.1
Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development 358 396 10.6 1,966 2,402 22.2
Health 298 290 -2.7 2,530 2,553 0.9
Industry 144 169 17.4 1,815 753 -58.5
Other1 1,683 1,506 -10.5 9,117 8,248 -9.5


Total 3,851 4,613 19.8 25,916 25,698 -0.8
Other direct program expenses
Crown corporations 627 597 -4.8 6,113 7,013 14.7
National Defence 1,551 1,856 19.7 16,626 18,711 12.5
All other departments
and agencies
3,754 3,711 -1.1 36,288 37,829 4.2


Total other direct program expenses 5,932 6,164 3.9 59,027 63,553 7.7


Total direct program expenses 9,783 10,777 10.2 84,943 89,251 5.1


Total program expenses 21,232 23,732 11.8 199,059 212,766 6.9
Public debt charges 1,972 1,973 0.1 22,914 21,805 -4.8


Total expenses 23,204 25,705 10.8 221,973 234,571 5.7
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1 Comparative figures have been reclassified to conform to the presentation in the 2014-15 Consolidated Financial Statements of the Government of Canada.

Table 4
The budgetary balance and financial source/requirement
$ millions

January April to January


2015 2016 2014–15 2015–16
Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus) 2,211 1,070 1,309 4,268
Non-budgetary transactions
Capital investment activities -300 -529 -2,913 -3,560
Other investing activities -606 208 2,474 -5,939
Pension and other accounts 262 564 1,746 4,041
Other activities
Accounts payable, receivables, accruals and allowances -1,417 1,344 -2,937 -4,827
Foreign exchange activities -7,046 -2,508 -8,820 -14,772
Amortization of tangible capital assets 124 292 3,068 3,518


Total other activities -8,339 -872 -8,689 -16,081


Total non-budgetary transactions -8,983 -629 -7,382 -21,539


Financial source/requirement -6,772 441 -6,073 -17,271
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Table 5
Financial source/requirement and net financing activities
$ millions

January April to January


2015 2016 2014–15 2015–16
Financial source/requirement -6,772 441 -6,073 -17,271
Net increase (+)/decrease (-) in financing activities
Unmatured debt transactions
Canadian currency borrowings
Marketable bonds 6,754 9,111 16,003 17,198
Treasury bills 2,200 500 -4,300 12,100
Retail debt 8 55 -630 -562


Total 8,962 9,666 11,073 28,736
Foreign currency borrowings 1,690 419 166 3,835


Total 10,652 10,085 11,239 32,571
Cross-currency swap revaluation 4,486 574 5,349 6,376
Unamortized discounts and premiums on market debt 255 106 534 722
Obligations related to capital leases and other unmatured debt 14 -13 -353 -203


Net change in financing activities 15,407 10,752 16,769 39,466
Change in cash balance 8,635 11,193 10,696 22,195
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Table 6
Condensed statement of assets and liabilities
$ millions

March 31,
2015
January 31,
2016
Change
Liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 123,631 122,499 -1,132
Interest-bearing debt
Unmatured debt
Payable in Canadian currency
Marketable bonds 487,881 505,079 17,198
Treasury bills 135,692 147,792 12,100
Retail debt 5,660 5,098 -562

Subtotal 629,233 657,969 28,736
Payable in foreign currencies 20,267 24,102 3,835
Cross-currency swap revaluation 6,669 13,045 6,376
Unamortized discounts and premiums on market debt 4,296 5,018 722
Obligations related to capital leases and other unmatured debt 4,715 4,512 -203

Total unmatured debt 665,180 704,646 39,466
Pension and other liabilities
Public sector pensions 152,664 152,102 -562
Other employee and veteran future benefits 76,140 80,879 4,739
Other liabilities 6,002 5,866 -136

Total pension and other liabilities 234,806 238,847 4,041

Total interest-bearing debt 899,986 943,493 43,507

Total liabilities 1,023,617 1,065,992 42,375
Financial assets
Cash and accounts receivable 136,696 162,586 25,890
Foreign exchange accounts 85,018 99,790 14,772
Loans, investments, and advances (net of allowances)1 113,681 118,118 4,437
Public sector pension assets 1,263 1,263 0

Total financial assets 336,658 381,757 45,099

Net debt 686,959 684,235 -2,724
Non-financial assets 74,629 74,671 42

Federal debt (accumulated deficit) 612,330 609,564 -2,766
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1 January 31, 2016 amount includes $1.5 billion in other comprehensive losses from enterprise Crown corporations and other government business enterprises for the April 2015 to January 2016 period.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, changes in financial results are presented on a year-over-year basis.

For inquiries about this publication, contact Glenn Purves at 613-369-5655.

March 2016

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada (2016)

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