Archived - The Fiscal Monitor A publication of the Department of Finance: 2018-07

There was a budgetary surplus of $0.1 billion in July 2018, compared to a deficit of $0.2 billion in July 2017. Revenues increased by $1.1 billion, or 4.0 per cent, reflecting increases in tax revenues, Employment Insurance (EI) premium revenues and other revenues. Program expenses increased by $0.6 billion, or 2.4 per cent, reflecting increases in major transfers to persons and other levels of government and direct program expenses. Public debt charges increased by $0.1 billion, or 7.7 per cent, reflecting in part a higher average effective interest rate on the stock of Government of Canada treasury bills.

For the April to July 2018 period of the 2018–19 fiscal year, the Government posted a budgetary surplus of $4.4 billion, compared to a deficit of $0.1 billion reported in the same period of 2017–18. Revenues were up $7.6 billion, or 7.5 per cent, reflecting increases in tax revenues, EI premium revenues and other revenues. Program expenses were up $2.2 billion, or 2.3 per cent, reflecting increases in major transfers to persons and other levels of government and direct program expenses. Public debt charges were up $0.8 billion, or 10.3 per cent, reflecting higher Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds and a higher average effective interest rate on the stock of Government of Canada treasury bills.

The financial results for the first four months of the fiscal year provide limited information with respect to the outlook for the year as a whole. That being said, the financial results through the April to July 2018 period are broadly in line with the fiscal projection for 2018–19 presented in the budget as expenses are expected to be concentrated later in the fiscal year, consistent with prior year trends.

An update of the economic and fiscal outlook will be provided in the Fall Economic Statement.

Revenues in July 2018 totalled $27.1 billion, up $1.1 billion, or 4.0 per cent, from July 2017.

• Tax revenues increased by $0.7 billion, or 3.3 per cent, due mainly to growth in Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues.
• EI premium revenues were up $0.1 billion, or 3.1 per cent.
• Other revenues, consisting of net profits from enterprise Crown corporations, revenues of consolidated Crown corporations, revenues from sales of goods and services, returns on investments, net foreign exchange revenues and miscellaneous revenues, were up $0.3 billion, or 11.8 per cent.

For the April to July period of 2018–19, revenues were $108.9 billion, up $7.6 billion, or 7.5 per cent, from the same period the previous year.

• Tax revenues increased by $6.9 billion, or 8.2 per cent, driven largely by growth in income tax revenues and GST revenues.
• EI premium revenues were up $0.4 billion, or 4.9 per cent.
• Other revenues were up $0.3 billion, or 3.0 per cent.

Program expenses in July 2018 were $24.9 billion, up $0.6 billion, or 2.4 per cent, from July 2017.

• Major transfers to persons, consisting of elderly, EI and children's benefits, were up $0.3 billion, or 3.4 per cent. Elderly benefits increased by $0.2 billion, or 5.8 per cent, reflecting growth in the elderly population and changes in consumer prices, to which benefits are fully indexed. EI benefits decreased by $34 million, or 2.0 per cent. Children's benefits were up $0.1 billion, or 2.9 per cent.
• Major transfers to other levels of government were up $0.2 billion, or 3.7 per cent, largely reflecting legislated growth in the Canada Health Transfer, the Canada Social Transfer and Equalization transfers.
• Direct program expenses were up $0.1 billion, or 0.6 per cent. Within direct program expenses:
  • Other transfer payments increased by $22 million, or 0.8 per cent.
  • Other direct program expenses, consisting of operating expenses of the Government's departments, agencies, and consolidated Crown corporations and other entities, increased by $38 million, or 0.5 per cent.

Public debt charges were up $0.1 billion, or 7.7 per cent, reflecting in part a higher average effective interest rate on the stock of Government of Canada treasury bills.

For the April to July period of 2018–19, program expenses were $95.6 billion, up $2.2 billion, or 2.3 per cent, from the same period the previous year.

• Major transfers to persons were up $0.5 billion, or 1.7 per cent. Elderly benefits increased by $0.9 billion, or 5.2 per cent, reflecting growth in the elderly population and changes in consumer prices. EI benefits decreased by $0.6 billion, or 9.3 per cent, while children's benefits were up $0.3 billion, or 3.5 per cent.
• Major transfers to other levels of government were up $0.9 billion, or 3.7 per cent, largely reflecting legislated growth in the Canada Health Transfer, the Canada Social Transfer and Equalization transfers.
• Direct program expenses were up $0.8 billion, or 2.1 per cent. Within direct program expenses:
  • Other transfer payments increased by $25 million, or 0.2 per cent.
  • Other direct program expenses increased by $0.8 billion, or 2.8 per cent.

Public debt charges increased by $0.8 billion, or 10.3 per cent, reflecting higher Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds and a higher average effective interest rate on the stock of Government of Canada treasury bills.

The following table presents total expenses by main object of expense.

The budgetary balance is presented on an accrual basis of accounting, recording government revenues and expenses when they are earned or incurred, regardless of when the cash is received or paid. In contrast, the financial source/requirement measures the difference between cash coming in to the Government and cash going out. This measure is affected not only by changes in the budgetary balance but also by the cash source/requirement resulting from the Government's investing activities through its acquisition of capital assets and its loans, financial investments and advances, as well as from other activities, including payment of accounts payable and collection of accounts receivable, foreign exchange activities, and the amortization of its tangible capital assets. The difference between the budgetary balance and financial source/requirement is recorded in non-budgetary transactions.

With a budgetary surplus of $4.4 billion and a requirement of $10.4 billion from non-budgetary transactions, there was a financial requirement of $6.0 billion for the April to July 2018 period, compared to a financial requirement of $11.8 billion for the same period the previous year.

The Government financed this financial requirement of $6.0 billion and increased cash balances by $6.8 billion by increasing unmatured debt by $12.8 billion. The increase in unmatured debt was achieved primarily through the issuance of marketable bonds and treasury bills.

The level of cash balances varies from month to month based on a number of factors including periodic large debt maturities, which can be quite volatile on a monthly basis. Cash balances at the end of July 2018 stood at $44.5 billion, up $2.8 billion from their level at the end of July 2017.

1. The Fiscal Monitor is a report on the consolidated financial results of the Government of Canada, prepared monthly by the Department of Finance Canada. The Government is committed to releasing The Fiscal Monitor on a timely basis in accordance with the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus, which is designed to promote member countries' data transparency and promote the development of sound statistical systems.
2. The financial results reported in The Fiscal Monitor are drawn from the accounts of Canada, which are maintained by the Receiver General and used to prepare the annual Public Accounts of Canada.
3. The Fiscal Monitor is generally prepared in accordance with the same accounting policies as used to prepare the Government's annual consolidated financial statements, which are summarized in Section 2 of Volume I of the Public Accounts of Canada, available through the Public Services and Procurement Canada website.
4. The financial results presented in The Fiscal Monitor have not been audited or reviewed by an external auditor.
5. There can be substantial volatility in monthly results due to the timing of revenue receipts and expense recognition. For instance, a large share of government spending is typically reported in the March Fiscal Monitor.
6. The April to March results reported in The Fiscal Monitor are not the final results for the fiscal year as a whole. The final results are published in the annual Public Accounts of Canada and incorporate post-March end-of-year adjustments made once further information becomes available, including the accrual of tax revenues reflecting assessments of tax returns and valuation adjustments for assets and liabilities. Post-March adjustments may also include the accrual of measures announced in the budget that are recorded upon receipt of Royal Assent of enabling legislation.
7. Table 7, Condensed Statement of Assets and Liabilities, is included in the monthly Fiscal Monitor following the finalization and publication of the Government's financial results for the preceding fiscal year, typically in the fall.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, changes in financial results are presented on a year-over-year basis.

For inquiries about this publication, contact Bradley Recker at 613-369-5667.

September 2018