Archived - The Fiscal Monitor - December 2020

Highlights

December 2020

There was a budgetary deficit of $16.2 billion in December 2020, compared to a surplus of $0.8 billion in December 2019. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses was $14.9 billion, compared to a surplus of $1.7 billion in December 2019. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses is a new measure introduced to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government's financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses arising from the revaluation of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans.

The government's 2020–21 financial results reflect the economic downturn and temporary measures implemented through the government's Economic Response Plan to support Canadians and businesses facing hardship as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Chart 1
Monthly Budgetary Balance and Budgetary Balance Excluding Net Actuarial Losses
Chart 1: Monthly Budgetary Balance and Budgetary Balance  Excluding Net Actuarial Losses

Compared to December 2019:

April to December 2020

For the April to December period of the 2020–21 fiscal year, the government posted a budgetary deficit of $248.2 billion, compared to a deficit of $11.0 billion reported for the same period of 2019–20. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses was $236.6 billion, compared to a deficit of $2.9 billion for the same period of 2019–20. 

The unprecedented shift in the government's financial results reflects the severe deterioration in the economic situation and temporary measures implemented through the government's Economic Response Plan to support Canadians and businesses facing hardship as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak during this period.

Compared to fiscal year 2019–20:

Chart 2
Year-to-Date Budgetary Balance and Budgetary Balance Excluding Net Actuarial Losses
Chart 2: Year-to-Date Budgetary Balance and Budgetary Balance  Excluding Net Actuarial Losses

1Sources: Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2019-2020; Fall Economic Statement 2020.

Table 1
Summary statement of transactions
$ millions
  December April to December
2019 2020 2019–20 2020–21
Budgetary transactions        
Revenues
30,292 29,560 245,985 207,689
Expenses
       
Program expenses, excluding net actuarial losses1
-26,608 -42,544 -230,478 -428,898
Public debt charges
-2,005 -1,886 -18,404 -15,414
Budgetary balance, excluding net actuarial losses1
1,679 -14,870 -2,897 -236,623
Net actuarial losses1
-897 -1,283 -8,073 -11,549
Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus)
782 -16,153 -10,970 -248,172
Non-budgetary transactions 1,576 -1,211 -4,253 -43,481
Financial source/requirement 2,358 -17,364 -15,223 -291,653
Net change in financing activities -5,574 6,719 11,583 331,192
Net change in cash balances -3,216 -10,645 -3,640 39,539
Cash balance at end of period     36,364 84,218
Note: Positive numbers indicate net source of funds. Negative numbers indicate net requirement for funds.
1Comparative figures and figures for April to August 2020 have been reclassified to conform to the presentation used in the Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2019–2020. Information regarding this reclassification can be found in Note 8 at the end of this document.

Revenues

Revenues in 2020–21 have been affected by the economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and by measures introduced under the government's Economic Response Plan, such as tax deferrals and the one-time Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax (GST/HST) credit payment. However, due to challenges in isolating these impacts from underlying economic activity, it is not possible to provide an accurate measure of the impact of COVID-19 on federal revenues.

Revenues in December 2020 totalled $29.6 billion, down $0.7 billion, or 2.4 per cent, from December 2019.

For the April to December period of 2020–21, revenues were $207.7 billion, down $38.3 billion, or 15.6 per cent, from the same period the previous year.

Table 2
Revenues
  December  April to December 
2019 2020 Change 2019–20 2020–21 Change
($ millions) (%) ($ millions) (%)
Tax revenues            
Income taxes
           
Personal
16,452 16,245 -1.3 122,661 121,888 -0.6
Corporate
4,968 5,908 18.9 35,285 31,960 -9.4
Non-resident
759 804 5.9 7,098 5,692 -19.8
Total income tax revenues
22,179 22,957 3.5 165,044 159,540 -3.3
Other taxes and duties
           
Goods and Services Tax
3,320 2,986 -10.1 30,531 21,771 -28.7
Energy taxes
500 451 -9.8 4,363 3,737 -14.3
Customs import duties
320 363 13.4 3,896 3,045 -21.8
Other excise taxes and duties
410 554 35.1 4,775 4,242 -11.2
Total other taxes and duties
4,550 4,354 -4.3 43,565 32,795 -24.7
Total tax revenues
26,729 27,311 2.2 208,609 192,335 -7.8
Fuel charge proceeds 137 348 154.0 1,023 2,743 168.1
Employment Insurance premiums 941 1,004 6.7 14,477 14,222 -1.8
Other revenues 2,485 897 -63.9 21,876 -1,611 -107.4
Total revenues 30,292 29,560 -2.4 245,985 207,689 -15.6
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Expenses

Program expenses in 2020–21 have been significantly impacted by spending measures under the Economic Response Plan, including the CERB, the CEWS, the Safe Restart Agreement, the 33 per cent incentive under the CEBA, the Canada Recovery Benefits, the Canada Emergency Student Benefit (CESB), and the Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance (CECRA) program. Further information regarding these measures is provided below.

Program expenses excluding net actuarial losses in December 2020 were $42.5 billion, up $15.9 billion, or 59.9 per cent, from December 2019.   

Public debt charges decreased by $0.1 billion, or 5.9 per cent, as lower interest on government debt more than offset higher Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds.

Net actuarial losses, which represent the amortization of changes in the value of the government's obligations for pensions and other employee future benefits accrued in previous fiscal years, increased by $0.4 billion, or 43.0 per cent, in large part due to declines in year-end interest rates used in valuing these obligations, as well as increased costs associated with the utilization of disability and other future benefits provided to veterans.

For the April to December period of 2020–21, program expenses excluding net actuarial losses were $428.9 billion, up $198.4 billion, or 86.1 per cent, from the same period the previous year.

Public debt charges decreased by $3.0 billion, or 16.2 per cent, primarily reflecting lower Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds, lower interest on pension and benefit obligations, and lower interest on Government of Canada treasury bills. 

Net actuarial losses increased by $3.5 billion, or 43.1 per cent, reflecting increases in the measurement of the government's obligations for pensions and other employee future benefits accrued in previous fiscal years. The increase in net actuarial losses is due in large part to declines in year-end interest rates used in valuing these obligations and increased costs associated with the utilization of disability and other future benefits provided to veterans.

Table 3
Expenses
  December  April to December  
  2019 2020 Change 2019–20 2020–21 Change
  ($ millions) (%) ($ millions) (%)
Major transfers to persons            
Elderly benefits
4,722 4,863 3.0 41,815 43,898 5.0
Employment Insurance benefits1
2,129 3,540 66.3 14,144 46,975 232.1
Canada Emergency Response Benefit and Canada Recovery Benefits1
- 2,950 n/a - 47,783 n/a
Children's benefits
2,045 2,154 5.3 18,222 20,594 13.0
Total major transfers to persons
8,896 13,507 51.8 74,181 159,250 114.7
Major transfers to other levels of government            
Canada Health Transfer
3,364 3,489 3.7 30,279 31,402 3.7
Canada Social Transfer
1,215 1,252 3.0 10,939 11,267 3.0
Equalization
1,653 1,714 3.7 14,878 15,430 3.7
Territorial Formula Financing
268 284 6.0 3,143 3,327 5.9
Gas Tax Fund
100 - -100.0 2,094 2,170 3.6
Home care and mental health
- - 0.0 1,015 1,249 23.1
Other fiscal arrangements2
-466 557 219.5 -2,378 13,626 673.0
Total major transfers to other levels of government
6,134 7,296 18.9 59,970 78,471 30.9
Direct program expenses3            
Fuel charge proceeds returned
6 30 400.0 1,281 2,791 117.9
Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy
- 4,613 n/a - 59,315 n/a
Other transfer payments
4,018 8,765 118.1 30,979 60,593 95.6
Operating expenses
7,554 8,333 10.3 64,067 68,478 6.9
Total direct program expenses
11,578 21,741 87.8 96,327 191,177 98.5
Total program expenses, excluding net actuarial losses3 26,608 42,544 59.9 230,478 428,898 86.1
Public debt charges 2,005 1,886 -5.9 18,404 15,414 -16.2
Total expenses, excluding net actuarial losses3 28,613 44,430 55.3 248,882 444,312 78.5
Net actuarial losses3
897 1,283 43.0 8,073 11,549 43.1
Total expenses 29,510 45,713 54.9 256,955 455,861 77.4
Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 Figures for April to August 2020 have been reclassified to conform to the presentation used in the Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2019–2020. Information regarding this reclassification can be found in Note 8 at the end of this document.
2 Other fiscal arrangements include the Youth Allowances Recovery and Alternative Payments for Standing Programs, which represent a recovery from Quebec of a tax point transfer; statutory subsidies; payments under the 2005 Offshore Accords; payments to provinces in respect of common securities regulation; transfers under the new Hibernia Dividend Backed Annuity Agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador; the Essential Workers Wage Top-Up; transfers under the Safe Restart Agreement; and, other items.
3 Comparative figures and figures for April to August 2020 have been reclassified to conform to the presentation used in the Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2019–2020. Information regarding this reclassification can be found in Note 8 at the end of this document.

The following table presents total expenses by main object of expense.

Table 4
Total expenses by object of expense
  December  April to December  
  2019 2020 Change 2019–20 2020–21 Change
($ millions) (%) ($ millions) (%)
Transfer payments 19,054 34,211 79.5 166,411 360,420 116.6
Other expenses            
Personnel, excluding net actuarial losses1
4,540 4,840 6.6 37,624 40,584 7.9
Transportation and communications
208 134 -35.6 1,967 1,281 -34.9
Information
31 35 12.9 219 256 16.9
Professional and special services
1,162 1,195 2.8 7,941 8,002 0.8
Rentals
250 251 0.4 2,342 2,441 4.2
Repair and maintenance
309 306 -1.0 2,255 2,069 -8.2
Utilities, materials and supplies
224 751 235.3 1,868 4,308 130.6
Other subsidies and expenses
396 356 -10.1 5,898 5,418 -8.1
Amortization of tangible capital assets
427 447 4.7 3,843 4,037 5.0
Net loss on disposal of assets
7 18 157.1 110 82 -25.5
Total other expenses
7,554 8,333 10.3 64,067 68,478 6.9
Total program expenses, excluding net actuarial losses1 26,608 42,544 59.9 230,478 428,898 86.1
Public debt charges 2,005 1,886 -5.9 18,404 15,414 -16.2
Total expenses, excluding net actuarial losses1 28,613 44,430 55.3 248,882 444,312 78.5
Net actuarial losses1
897 1,283 43.0 8,073 11,549 43.1
Total expenses 29,510 45,713 54.9 256,955 455,861 77.4
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 Comparative figures and figures for April to August 2020 have been reclassified to conform to the presentation used in the Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2019–2020. Information regarding this reclassification can be found in Note 8 at the end of this document.
Chart 3
Revenues and expenses (April to December 2020)
Chart 3: Revenues and expenses (April to December   2020)

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Financial requirement of $291.7 billion for April to December 2020

The budgetary balance is presented on an accrual basis of accounting, recording government revenues and expenses when they are earned or incurred, regardless of when the cash is received or paid. In contrast, the financial source/requirement measures the difference between cash coming in to the government and cash going out. This measure is affected not only by changes in the budgetary balance but also by the cash source/requirement resulting from the government's investing activities through its acquisition of capital assets and its loans, financial investments and advances, as well as from other activities, including payment of accounts payable and collection of accounts receivable, foreign exchange activities, and the amortization of its tangible capital assets. The difference between the budgetary balance and financial source/requirement is recorded in non-budgetary transactions.

With a budgetary deficit of $248.2 billion and a requirement of $43.5 billion from non-budgetary transactions, there was a financial requirement of $291.7 billion for the April to December 2020 period, compared to a financial requirement of $15.2 billion for the same period of the previous year. 

The increased financial requirement for non-budgetary transactions for the April to December 2020 period was mainly driven by changes in loans, investments and advances; and accounts payable, accrued liabilities and accounts receivable. Changes to loans, investments and advances largely reflect loans advanced under the CEBA program, while changes to accounts payable, accrued liabilities and accounts receivable reflect a number of factors, including year-over-year changes in the balances of taxes receivable and amounts payable related to tax. 

Table 5
The budgetary balance and financial source/requirement
$ millions
  December April to December
  2019 2020 2019–20 2020–21
Budgetary balance (deficit/surplus) 782 -16,153 -10,970 -248,172
Non-budgetary transactions        
Accounts payable, accrued liabilities and accounts receivable
-431 -2,368 -3,138 -20,735
Pensions, other future benefits, and other liabilities
975 1,666 8,161 12,249
Foreign exchange accounts
1,559 3,794 1,214 4,389
Loans, investments and advances
-204 -2,999 -9,005 -35,603
Non-financial assets
-323 -1,304 -1,485 -3,781
Total non-budgetary transactions
1,576 -1,211 -4,253 -43,481
Financial source/requirement 2,358 -17,364 -15,223 -291,653
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Net financing activities up $331.2 billion

The government financed this financial requirement of $291.7 billion and increased cash balances by $39.5 billion by increasing unmatured debt by $331.2 billion. The increase in unmatured debt was achieved primarily through the issuance of marketable bonds and treasury bills. 

Cash balances at the end of December 2020 stood at $84.2 billion, up $39.5 billion from their level at the end of March 2020. The significant increase in the cash balance largely reflects borrowings undertaken to meet the government's projected financial requirements under the COVID-19 Economic Response Plan.

Table 6
Financial source/requirement and net financing activities
$ millions
  December April to December
  2019 2020 2019–20 2020–21
Financial source/requirement 2,358 -17,364 -15,223 -291,653
Net increase (+)/decrease (-) in financing activities        
Unmatured debt transactions
       
Canadian currency borrowings
       
Marketable bonds
1,361 26,702 25,989 232,237
Treasury bills
-5,100 -17,000 -9,500 97,033
Retail debt
-70 -35 -687 -189
Total Canadian currency borrowings
-3,809 9,667 15,802 329,081
Foreign currency borrowings
-431 -2,334 -1,120 1,171
Total market debt transactions
-4,240 7,333 14,682 330,252
Cross-currency swap revaluation
-1,376 -980 -2,632 -7,303
Unamortized discounts and premiums on market debt
60 393 402 8,438
Obligations related to capital leases and other unmatured debt
-18 -27 -869 -195
Net change in financing activities -5,574 6,719 11,583 331,192
Change in cash balance -3,216 -10,645 -3,640 39,539
Cash balance at end of period     36,364 84,218
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Federal debt

The federal debt, or accumulated deficit, is the difference between the government's total liabilities and total assets. The year-over-year change in the accumulated deficit reflects the year-to-date budgetary balance plus other comprehensive income or loss. Other comprehensive income or loss represents certain unrealized gains and losses on financial instruments and actuarial gains and losses related to pensions and other employee future benefits reported by enterprise Crown corporations and other government business enterprises. 

The accumulated deficit increased by $252.6 billion over the April to December 2020 period, reflecting the $248.2-billion budgetary deficit and $4.4 billion in other comprehensive losses.

Table 7
Condensed statement of assets and liabilities
$ millions
  March 31,
2020
December 31,
2020
Change
Liabilities      
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities
163,833 208,915 45,082
Interest-bearing debt
 
Unmatured debt
 
Payable in Canadian currency
 
Marketable bonds
596,864 829,101 232,237
Treasury bills
151,867 248,900 97,033
Retail debt
497 308 -189
Subtotal
749,228 1,078,309 329,081
Payable in foreign currencies
15,941 17,112 1,171
Cross-currency swap revaluation
10,592 3,289 -7,303
Unamortized discounts and premiums on market debt
2,487 10,925 8,438
Obligations related to capital leases and other unmatured debt
5,503 5,308 -195
Total unmatured debt
783,751 1,114,943 331,192
Pension and other liabilities
 
Public sector pensions
168,596 167,964 -632
Other employee and veteran future benefits
126,378 139,341 12,963
Other liabilities
6,051 5,969 -82
Total pension and other liabilities
301,025 313,274 12,249
Total interest-bearing debt
1,084,776 1,428,217 343,441
Total liabilities
1,248,609 1,637,132 388,523
Financial assets  
Cash and accounts receivable
173,715 279,071 105,356
Foreign exchange accounts
104,903 100,514 -4,389
Loans, investments, and advances (net of allowances)1
152,502 183,714 31,212
Public sector pension assets
4,598 4,598 -
Total financial assets
435,718 567,897 132,179
Net debt 812,891 1,069,235 256,344
Non-financial assets 91,531 95,312 3,781
Federal debt (accumulated deficit) 721,360 973,923 252,563
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 December 31, 2020 amount includes $4.4 billion in other comprehensive losses from enterprise Crown corporations and other government business enterprises for the April to December 2020 period.

Notes

  1. The Fiscal Monitor is a report on the consolidated financial results of the Government of Canada, prepared monthly by the Department of Finance Canada. The government is committed to releasing The Fiscal Monitor on a timely basis in accordance with the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standards Plus, which are designed to promote member countries' data transparency and promote the development of sound statistical systems.
  2. The financial results reported in The Fiscal Monitor are drawn from the accounts of Canada, which are maintained by the Receiver General and used to prepare the annual Public Accounts of Canada.
  3. The Fiscal Monitor is generally prepared in accordance with the same accounting policies as used to prepare the government's annual consolidated financial statements, which are summarized in Section 2 of Volume I of the Public Accounts of Canada, available through the Public Services and Procurement Canada website.
  4. The financial results presented in The Fiscal Monitor have not been audited or reviewed by an external auditor.
  5. There can be substantial volatility in monthly results due to the timing of revenue receipts and expense recognition. For instance, a large share of government spending is typically reported in the March Fiscal Monitor.
  6. The April to March results reported in The Fiscal Monitor are not the final results for the fiscal year as a whole. The final results are published in the annual Public Accounts of Canada and incorporate post-March end-of-year adjustments made once further information becomes available, including the accrual of tax revenues reflecting assessments of tax returns and valuation adjustments for assets and liabilities. Post-March adjustments may also include the accrual of measures announced in the budget that are recorded upon receipt of Royal Assent of enabling legislation.
  7. Table 7, Condensed Statement of Assets and Liabilities, is included in the monthly Fiscal Monitor following the finalization and publication of the government's financial results for the preceding fiscal year, typically in the fall.
  8. The Department of Finance Canada has changed the presentation of the financial results in The Fiscal Monitor to: (a) separately present the recognition of actuarial gains and losses related to public sector pensions and other employee and veteran future benefits; and, (b) reflect CERB benefits paid to individuals processed through the Employment Insurance Operating Account within EI benefits. This new format is aligned with the presentation adopted in the Condensed Consolidated Statement of Operations and Accumulated Deficit in the Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 20192020
    1. Actuarial gains and losses were previously reported as part of direct program expenses, but are now presented in a new line item titled "Net actuarial losses". A new subtotal line titled "Budgetary balance, excluding net actuarial losses" has also been added. The purpose of this revised presentation is to enhance financial reporting and decision making for users by isolating the impacts of re-measurements of public sector pension and other employee and veteran future benefit obligations, which are often significant and can potentially mask underlying events and trends in current government spending. Results for April to August 2020 and comparative figures for the prior year have been reclassified to conform to this new presentation. Further details regarding this change in presentation can be found in the Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2019–2020, available on the Department of Finance Canada website.
    2. CERB payments processed through the Employment Insurance Operating Account were previously reported in The Fiscal Monitor within the line item titled "Canada Emergency Response Benefit", but are now presented in the line item "Employment Insurance benefits". Results for April to August 2020 have been reclassified to conform to this new presentation.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, changes in financial results are presented on a year-over-year basis.

For inquiries about this publication, contact Bradley Recker at 613-369-5667.

February 2021

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