Canada's Inventory of PCBs and Projections of Inventory Reductions With and Without Regulated Phase-Out

For this study PCB inventory amounts were estimated for the end of 2001. The CCME inventory of PCBs (maintained by Environment Canada) for 2001 and estimates by the Canadian Electrical Industry (CEA, 2000) and the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association (CEPA, 2001) were used as the basis of the inventory amounts but some PCB amounts such as PCB contaminated mineral oil and PCB light ballasts were estimated because the CCME inventory and industry estimates do not contain complete information on these items. The inventory amounts estimated for this study to the end of 2001 are shown in Table 1.

^*CMO = contaminated mineral oil

To evaluate the effects of the enacting of the proposed amendments, two scenarios for phase-out of PCBs in Canada were developed. The scenario used to model the status quo rate of PCB attrition was adapted from a previous study (CCREM, 1987) and is termed the "normal attrition scenario". A new scenario was developed for PCB attrition rates to meet the proposed regulatory phase-out dates and this was termed the "regulated phase-out" scenario.

Both 2001 estimates of PCB amounts and scenario attrition rates are based on a series of assumptions. The key assumptions are listed below. The full set of assumptions is presented in the full report. The key assumptions are:

The number of contaminated mineral oil (CMO) transformers in Canada at the end of 2001 was estimated using attrition rates (CCREM, 1987) applied to estimates from the early 1980s of total CMO transformers after the regulatory ban on PCBs.

The number of non-pole-top transformers (pole-top transformers are exempt from the draft regulations) was estimated to be one-half the total number of CMO transformers.

Estimates of the number of spills and fires involving PCBs were made using incident rates developed by the US EPA specifically for PCB equipment.

The number of electrical cables contaminated with or containing PCBs in Canada was assumed to be ten times the number estimated by the Canadian Electrical Association for their membership.

The amount of PCB contaminated pipelines was estimated from data (estimates) reported by the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association.

Low and high estimates of costs and benefits were made by simply multiplying the best estimate value by 0.75 (low) or 1.25 (high), representing a 25% error range both high and low. The range of costs and benefits is presented to indicate the potential error inherent in estimates of this type. Sources of error or variation in costs and benefits include under or over-estimating PCB inventories, changes in the unit costs of goods and services over time due to market forces, differences in the rate of attrition of PCB equipment compared to the estimates made in this report and variations in the discount rate (inflation and interest rates).

Forecasts were then prepared of the PCB amounts remaining year-by-year and the amounts decommissioned and destroyed each year under each scenario. Calculations were performed for each of the categories "in-service, excluding sensitive locations ", "in-service in sensitive locations " and "in storage ". The normal attrition (status quo, without revised regulations) scenario produced phase-out dates from 2011 to 2016 for PCBs in service (depending on the type of equipment) and from 2020 to 2027 for PCBs in storage (depending on the type of waste). The phase out dates for the regulated phase-out are stipulated in the proposed amendments. One of the calculations performed was a forecast of the amount of PCBs released to the environment under each scenario. The results of this forecast are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Estimated Yearly Releases of PCBs to the Environment