Climate data and scenarios: synthesis of recent observation and modelling results, chapter 3.1.1


3.1.1 Summary tables for temperature

Tables 3 and 4 provide values averaged over Canada and over each province and territory for the 50th (median), 25th and 75th percentiles of temperature change for the three future periods illustrated in the previous figures. These tables also provide the corresponding projections under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. As Figures 6 and 7 clearly show, projected temperature changes are not constant across a province or territory, but the tables are provided to inform province- or territory-wide assessment activities that may need area-averaged information.

Table 3: Summary information for projected winter temperature change (in °C, relative to the 1986-2005 baseline period), averaged over December-February for three future periods and three RCPs. The table shows values for the 50th percentile (a), 25th percentile (b), and 75th percentile (c).

RCP2.6
(a) 50th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.4 2.2 2.4
Alberta 1.2 1.9 2.2
British Columbia 1.1 1.7 1.8
Manitoba 1.5 2.4 2.7
New Brunswick 1.1 1.7 2.1
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.3 2.2 2.3
Northwest Territories 2.1 2.8 3.1
Nova Scotia 1.0 1.5 1.9
Nunavut 1.9 3.1 3.0
Ontario 1.4 2.2 2.4
Prince Edward Island 1.1 1.7 2.1
Quebec 1.6 2.5 2.7
Saskatchewan 1.3 2.2 2.5
Yukon 1.8 2.1 2.3
RCP4.5
(a) 50th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.5 3.2 4.2
Alberta 1.2 2.9 3.6
British Columbia 1.1 2.4 3.1
Manitoba 1.7 3.6 4.8
New Brunswick 1.3 2.7 3.5
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.3 2.9 4.1
Northwest Territories 1.9 4.3 5.4
Nova Scotia 1.2 2.3 2.9
Nunavut 2.0 4.4 5.9
Ontario 1.6 3.2 4.4
Prince Edward Island 1.3 2.7 3.4
Quebec 1.6 3.4 4.8
Saskatchewan 1.4 3.3 4.2
Yukon 1.5 3.3 4.1
RCP8.5
(a) 50th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.8 4.4 8.2
Alberta 1.8 3.7 6.9
British Columbia 1.5 3.1 5.7
Manitoba 2.2 5.0 9.5
New Brunswick 1.4 3.6 6.4
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.5 4.3 7.7
Northwest Territories 2.2 6.1 12.3
Nova Scotia 1.3 3.0 5.4
Nunavut 2.2 6.5 12.9
Ontario 1.9 4.6 8.2
Prince Edward Island 1.4 3.4 6.0
Quebec 1.8 5.2 9.1
Saskatchewan 2.0 4.3 8.1
Yukon 1.9 4.4 8.1
RCP2.6
(b) 25th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 0.9 1.6 1.5
Alberta 0.6 1.3 1.3
British Columbia 0.5 1.1 1.2
Manitoba 0.9 1.8 1.5
New Brunswick 0.8 1.3 1.4
Newfoundland and Labrador 0.8 1.4 1.3
Northwest Territories 1.3 2.0 1.8
Nova Scotia 0.7 1.1 1.0
Nunavut 1.4 2.2 2.0
Ontario 0.8 1.5 1.4
Prince Edward Island 0.8 1.3 1.3
Quebec 0.9 1.6 1.5
Saskatchewan 0.7 1.6 1.5
Yukon 0.8 1.3 1.6
RCP4.5
(b) 25th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.0 2.5 3.2
Alberta 0.7 2.2 2.1
British Columbia 0.5 1.7 1.9
Manitoba 1.0 2.8 3.5
New Brunswick 0.7 2.0 2.9
Newfoundland and Labrador 0.8 2.2 3.1
Northwest Territories 1.2 3.1 4.1
Nova Scotia 0.7 1.7 2.4
Nunavut 1.4 3.4 4.7
Ontario 0.9 2.4 3.1
Prince Edward Island 0.8 1.8 2.7
Quebec 1.0 2.6 3.6
Saskatchewan 0.9 2.6 2.8
Yukon 0.7 2.0 2.8
RCP8.5
(b) 25th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.2 3.7 7.2
Alberta 1.0 2.7 5.5
British Columbia 0.9 2.2 4.5
Manitoba 1.3 3.7 7.4
New Brunswick 1.0 3.0 5.6
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.0 3.4 6.5
Northwest Territories 1.7 4.8 9.4
Nova Scotia 0.9 2.5 4.7
Nunavut 1.7 5.4 10.5
Ontario 1.2 3.4 6.9
Prince Edward Island 1.0 2.7 5.3
Quebec 1.3 4.0 8.0
Saskatchewan 1.4 3.1 6.5
Yukon 1.3 3.2 6.1
RCP2.6
(c) 75th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 2.1 3.1 3.4
Alberta 1.9 2.8 2.8
British Columbia 1.7 2.4 2.5
Manitoba 2.1 3.3 3.4
New Brunswick 1.4 2.3 2.7
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.8 3.0 3.3
Northwest Territories 2.7 3.8 4.1
Nova Scotia 1.3 2.1 2.5
Nunavut 2.7 4.2 4.6
Ontario 1.9 2.8 3.0
Prince Edward Island 1.6 2.5 2.9
Quebec 2.1 3.4 3.8
Saskatchewan 2.0 3.0 3.1
Yukon 2.5 3.0 3.1
RCP4.5
(c) 75th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 2.2 4.3 5.7
Alberta 1.9 3.9 4.7
British Columbia 1.5 3.1 3.7
Manitoba 2.4 4.4 6.1
New Brunswick 1.8 3.3 4.3
Newfoundland and Labrador 2.0 3.7 4.9
Northwest Territories 2.7 5.5 7.4
Nova Scotia 1.6 2.9 3.7
Nunavut 2.8 5.7 7.9
Ontario 2.0 4.1 5.3
Prince Edward Island 1.8 3.2 4.1
Quebec 2.2 4.6 6.1
Saskatchewan 2.1 4.1 5.5
Yukon 2.0 4.3 5.1
RCP8.5
(c) 75th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 2.4 5.7 10.8
Alberta 2.3 4.8 7.8
British Columbia 2.0 3.9 6.6
Manitoba 2.7 6.1 10.9
New Brunswick 1.9 4.4 7.3
Newfoundland and Labrador 2.2 5.2 9.0
Northwest Territories 3.1 7.3 14.4
Nova Scotia 1.6 3.6 6.2
Nunavut 3.0 7.7 16.1
Ontario 2.2 5.4 9.7
Prince Edward Island 1.8 4.1 6.7
Quebec 2.5 6.1 10.8
Saskatchewan 2.4 5.5 9.1
Yukon 2.4 5.3 10.0

Table 4: Summary information for projected summer temperature change (in °C, relative to the 1986-2005 baseline period), averaged over June-August for three future periods and three RCPs. The table shows values for the 50th percentile (a), 25th percentile (b), and 75th percentile (c).

RCP2.6
(a) 50th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.0 1.5 1.4
Alberta 1.1 1.5 1.4
British Columbia 1.1 1.5 1.5
Manitoba 1.2 1.5 1.5
New Brunswick 1.0 1.5 1.4
Newfoundland and Labrador 0.8 1.2 1.2
Northwest Territories 1.1 1.5 1.4
Nova Scotia 0.9 1.5 1.3
Nunavut 1.0 1.4 1.2
Ontario 1.1 1.4 1.3
Prince Edward Island 0.9 1.6 1.4
Quebec 0.9 1.4 1.3
Saskatchewan 1.2 1.5 1.5
Yukon 1.1 1.4 1.3
RCP4.5
(a) 50th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.1 2.0 2.6
Alberta 1.1 2.2 2.7
British Columbia 1.2 2.2 2.7
Manitoba 1.2 2.2 3.0
New Brunswick 1.1 2.1 2.5
Newfoundland and Labrador 0.8 1.7 2.2
Northwest Territories 1.1 2.1 2.4
Nova Scotia 1.0 1.9 2.4
Nunavut 0.9 1.8 2.4
Ontario 1.1 2.1 2.9
Prince Edward Island 1.1 2.0 2.5
Quebec 1.0 1.9 2.6
Saskatchewan 1.2 2.3 2.8
Yukon 1.1 1.9 2.4
RCP8.5
(a) 50th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.2 2.9 5.4
Alberta 1.4 3.2 5.9
British Columbia 1.3 3.0 5.6
Manitoba 1.4 3.4 6.3
New Brunswick 1.2 3.0 5.4
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.0 2.5 4.6
Northwest Territories 1.2 2.9 5.1
Nova Scotia 1.1 2.7 4.9
Nunavut 1.1 2.6 4.8
Ontario 1.3 3.1 6.0
Prince Edward Island 1.2 2.9 5.1
Quebec 1.2 2.8 5.3
Saskatchewan 1.4 3.4 6.3
Yukon 1.1 2.6 4.9
RCP2.6
(b) 25th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 0.7 0.9 0.8
Alberta 0.8 0.9 0.8
British Columbia 0.8 1.0 0.9
Manitoba 0.8 1.0 0.9
New Brunswick 0.8 1.0 0.8
Newfoundland and Labrador 0.5 0.7 0.6
Northwest Territories 0.7 0.9 0.9
Nova Scotia 0.7 1.0 0.9
Nunavut 0.5 0.7 0.6
Ontario 0.8 1.0 0.9
Prince Edward Island 0.7 1.0 0.8
Quebec 0.6 0.9 0.8
Saskatchewan 0.9 1.0 0.8
Yukon 0.7 0.9 0.8
RCP4.5
(b) 25th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 0.7 1.4 1.7
Alberta 0.9 1.5 1.8
British Columbia 0.9 1.5 2.0
Manitoba 0.9 1.7 1.9
New Brunswick 0.7 1.5 2.0
Newfoundland and Labrador 0.5 1.2 1.5
Northwest Territories 0.8 1.4 1.7
Nova Scotia 0.7 1.5 1.9
Nunavut 0.5 1.1 1.3
Ontario 0.8 1.6 1.8
Prince Edward Island 0.7 1.6 2.0
Quebec 0.6 1.4 1.7
Saskatchewan 0.9 1.7 1.9
Yukon 0.7 1.5 1.7
RCP8.5
(b) 25th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 0.9 2.2 4.2
Alberta 1.1 2.3 4.4
British Columbia 0.9 2.3 4.3
Manitoba 1.0 2.7 4.9
New Brunswick 1.0 2.4 4.4
Newfoundland and Labrador 0.8 1.9 3.9
Northwest Territories 0.9 2.1 4.0
Nova Scotia 0.9 2.2 4.2
Nunavut 0.6 1.8 3.4
Ontario 1.0 2.6 4.7
Prince Edward Island 1.0 2.4 4.2
Quebec 0.9 2.2 4.1
Saskatchewan 1.1 2.6 4.9
Yukon 0.7 1.9 3.8
RCP2.6
(c) 75th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.5 2.0 2.0
Alberta 1.4 2.1 2.1
British Columbia 1.4 2.1 2.2
Manitoba 1.7 2.4 2.2
New Brunswick 1.4 2.1 1.8
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.2 1.8 1.7
Northwest Territories 1.6 2.2 2.1
Nova Scotia 1.2 1.8 1.8
Nunavut 1.5 2.0 2.1
Ontario 1.5 2.2 2.0
Prince Edward Island 1.3 2.1 1.9
Quebec 1.3 2.0 1.9
Saskatchewan 1.6 2.3 2.2
Yukon 1.5 2.0 2.0
RCP4.5
(c) 75th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.4 2.6 3.4
Alberta 1.4 2.6 3.5
British Columbia 1.5 2.8 3.6
Manitoba 1.5 2.9 4.1
New Brunswick 1.4 2.6 3.5
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.3 2.3 3.0
Northwest Territories 1.5 2.7 3.4
Nova Scotia 1.5 2.4 3.2
Nunavut 1.4 2.5 3.2
Ontario 1.4 2.8 3.6
Prince Edward Island 1.4 2.5 3.3
Quebec 1.3 2.6 3.3
Saskatchewan 1.5 2.7 3.9
Yukon 1.5 2.6 3.4
RCP8.5
(c) 75th Percentile 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100
Canada 1.6 3.6 6.6
Alberta 1.6 3.8 6.8
British Columbia 1.6 3.8 6.8
Manitoba 1.8 4.2 7.8
New Brunswick 1.6 3.7 6.3
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.3 3.2 5.9
Northwest Territories 1.6 3.7 6.8
Nova Scotia 1.5 3.4 5.9
Nunavut 1.5 3.4 6.6
Ontario 1.6 3.9 6.9
Prince Edward Island 1.6 3.4 6.0
Quebec 1.5 3.5 6.3
Saskatchewan 1.7 4.0 7.5
Yukon 1.5 3.7 6.4
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