Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin - Autumn 2019

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This bulletin summarizes recent climate data and presents it in a historical context. It first examines the national average temperature for the season and then highlights interesting regional temperature information.

Over the past decade, precipitation monitoring technology has evolved and Environment and Climate Change Canada and its partners implemented a transition from manual observations to using automatic precipitation gauges. Extensive data integration is required to link the current precipitation observations to the long term historical manual observations.  The update and reporting of historical adjusted precipitation trends and variations will be on temporary hiatus pending the extensive data reconciliation, and resumed thereafter. ECCC remains committed to providing credible climate data to inform adaptation decision making, while ensuring the necessary data reconciliation occurs as monitoring technology evolves.

National temperature

The national average temperature for the autumn (September–November) of 2019 was 1.5°C above the baseline average (defined as the mean over the 1961–1990 reference period), based on preliminary data, which is the 13th warmest observed since nationwide recording began in 1948. The warmest autumn occurred in 1998, when the national average temperature was 2.5°C above the baseline average. The coolest autumn occurred in 1972, when the national average temperature was 1.8°C below the baseline average. The temperature departures map (below) shows that Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Labrador as well as the northern areas of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Quebec experienced autumn temperatures notably above the baseline average. Meanwhile, temperatures were below the baseline average along Canada’s southern border from eastern British Columbia through Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northwestern Ontario, and from eastern Ontario to south and central Quebec, as well as the northern part of Nova Scotia. Autumn temperatures were generally near the baseline average in the remainder of the country.

Temperature departures from the 1961–1990 average – Autumn 2019

The temperature departures map.
Long description 

The temperature departures map shows that Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Labrador as well as the northern areas of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Quebec experienced autumn temperatures notably above the baseline average. Meanwhile, temperatures were below the baseline average along Canada’s southern border from eastern British Columbia through Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northwestern Ontario, and from eastern Ontario to south and central Quebec, as well as the northern part of Nova Scotia. Autumn temperatures were generally near the baseline average in the remainder of the country.

The time series graph (below) shows that autumn temperatures averaged across the country have fluctuated from year to year over the 1948–2019 period. With the exception of 2018, averaged autumn temperatures have remained above the baseline average since 1996. The linear trend indicates that autumn temperatures averaged across the nation have warmed by 1.7°C over the past 72 years.

Autumn national temperature departures and long-term trend, 1948–2019

The time series graph shows that averaged autumn temperatures across the country have fluctuated from year to year.
Long description 

The time series graph shows that autumn temperatures averaged across the country have fluctuated from year to year over the 1948–2019 period. With the exception of 2018, averaged autumn temperatures have remained above the baseline average since 1996. The linear trend indicates that autumn temperatures averaged across the nation have warmed by 1.7°C over the past 72 years.

Regional temperature

When examined on a regional basis, average autumn temperatures for 2019 were among the 10 warmest on record since 1948 for four of the eleven climate regions: the Arctic Mountains and Fiords (warmest at 4.8°C above average), Arctic Tundra (3rd warmest at 3.9°C above average), Yukon/North B.C. Mountains (7th warmest at 2.5°C above average) and Mackenzie District (10th warmest at 2.2°C above average). Average autumn temperatures for 2019 were not among the 10 coolest on record since 1948 for any of the eleven climate regions. All eleven climate regions exhibit positive trends for autumn temperatures over the 72 years of record. The strongest trend is observed in the Arctic Tundra and Arctic Mountains and Fiords regions (+2.6°C), while the weakest trend (+0.4°C) is found in the South B.C. Mountains region. A table listing the regional and national temperature departures and rankings from 1948 to 2019 and a table that summarizes regional and national trends and extremes summaries are available on request to ec.btvc-ctvb.ec@canada.ca.

A map that shows the Canadian climate regions.
Long description

A map that shows the Canadian Climate Regions: Atlantic Canada, Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Lowlands, Northeastern Forest, Northwestern Forest, Prairies, South British Columbia Mountains, Pacific Coast, North British Columbia Mountains/Yukon, Mackenzie District, Arctic Tundra, Arctic Mountains and Fiords.

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