Population status of migratory game birds in Canada - 2025

Canadian Wildlife Service
Waterfowl Technical Committee
CWS Migratory Birds Regulatory Report Number 61

Northward Bound – Greater Scaup
© 2025 Canadian Wildlife Habitat Conservation Stamp and Print image, “Northward Bound – Greater Scaup” by Ken Ferris.

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Cover Image: © 2025 Canadian Wildlife Habitat Conservation Stamp and Print image, “Northward Bound – Greater Scaup” by Ken Ferris.

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Cover art

The 2025 Canadian Wildlife Habitat Conservation Stamp image, entitled “Northward Bound – Greater Scaup” is a painting by Canadian wildlife artist Ken Ferris.

Through a special partnership with Environment and Climate Change Canada, Wildlife Habitat Canada receives the revenues from the sale of the Canadian Wildlife Habitat Conservation Stamp, purchased primarily by waterfowl hunters to validate their Migratory Game Bird Hunting Permits. The conservation stamp is also sold to stamp and print collectors and those interested in contributing to habitat conservation. Wildlife Habitat Canada has provided over $64 million in grants to more than 1,600 habitat conservation projects across Canada since the development of the program in 1985. Since 2012, Wildlife Habitat Canada has helped to restore, enhance and conserve 1.43 million acres of wildlife habitat (Wildlife Habitat Canada).

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Population Status of Migratory Game Birds in Canada - 2025

Canadian Wildlife Service
Waterfowl Technical Committee
CWS Migratory Birds Regulatory Report Number 61

Authors:

This report was prepared by the Canadian Wildlife Service Waterfowl Technical Committee. The main authors of this document are Frédérique Tremblay and Jackson Kusack of the Wildlife Management and Regulatory Affairs Division in the Wildlife Management Directorate of the Canadian Wildlife Service.

Recommended citation for this report:

Canadian Wildlife Service Waterfowl Technical Committee. 2025. Population Status of Migratory Game Birds in Canada: 2025. CWS Migratory Birds Regulatory Report Number 61.

Comments:

Comments regarding this national report, the regulation-setting process or other concerns relating to national migratory game birds should be sent to Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Canadian Wildlife Service, National Capital Region Office:

Director of Wildlife Management and Regulatory Affairs
Wildlife Management Directorate
Canadian Wildlife Service
Environment and Climate Change Canada
351 St. Joseph Boulevard,
Gatineau QC  K1A 0H3

Email: MbregsReports-Rapports-Omregs@ec.gc.ca

This report may be downloaded from the following website: Migratory birds regulatory report series

1 Executive summary

1.1 Eastern range

In 2025, there were approximately 3.44 million breeding ducks in the Eastern Waterfowl Survey (EWS) area. Since 1990, American Black Duck and Mallard numbers have increased. Other duck species (Green-winged Teal, American Wigeon, and Ring-necked Duck) have shown no significant change since 1990. From 2021 to 2025, numbers of American Black Duck have increased and numbers of all other species have shown no significant changes (Green-winged Teal, American Wigeon, Mallard, and Ring-necked Duck). In 2025, the most common species were Hooded Merganser (675,000), Ring-necked Duck (573,000), Mallard (569,000), American Black Duck (560,000) and Common Merganser (399,000).

1.2 Western range

In 2025, there were approximately 34.8 million breeding ducks in the Traditional Survey Area of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS). In the Traditional Survey Area, numbers of Green-winged Teal, Gadwall, Northern Shoveler, Redhead, Ring-necked Duck, and Ruddy Duck have increased since 1970. Numbers of Mallard, Northern Pintail, and Scaup sp. have decreased. Since 1970, other duck species (American Wigeon, Blue-winged Teal, and Canvasback) have fluctuated but showed no significant changes overall. From 2021 to 2025, numbers of Blue-winged Teal, Gadwall, and Mallard have decreased and numbers of all other species have shown no significant changes (Green-winged Teal, American Wigeon, Canvasback, Northern Pintail, Northern Shoveler, Redhead, Ring-necked Duck, Ruddy Duck, and Scaup sp.). In 2025, the most common species were Mallard (6.55 million), Blue-winged Teal (4.43 million), Scaup sp. (3.68 million), American Wigeon (3.19 million) and Northern Shoveler (2.76 million).

1.3 Geese

There are 6 populations of geese for which population size is derived from Lincoln estimates. From the long-term record (1976 to 2024), 3 populations have increased (Cackling Goose, Mid-continent Greater White-fronted Goose, and Mid-continent Lesser Snow Goose) and 3 populations have shown no significant changes (Atlantic Brant, Western Arctic Lesser Snow Goose, and Ross’s Goose). Since 2020, all 6 populations have shown no significant changes (Atlantic Brant, Cackling Goose, Mid-continent Greater White-fronted Goose, Mid-continent Lesser Snow Goose, Western Arctic Lesser Snow Goose, and Ross’s Goose).

2 Background

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is responsible for the conservation and management of migratory birds in Canada. Hunting regulations for migratory game birds are developed to ensure that harvest supports long-term sustainable populations of those hunted species. These regulations are reviewed and amended biennially by ECCC, with input from the provinces, territories, and other stakeholders. The population status of migratory game birds is assessed on an annual basis to ensure that regulations are appropriate, and amendments can be made between review periods, if necessary, for conservation reasons. As part of the regulatory process to amend hunting regulations, the Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS) produces a series of regulatory reports.

The first report, Population Status of Migratory Game Birds in Canada, contains population and other biological information on migratory game birds. It thus provides the scientific basis for informing management decisions that ensure long-term sustainability of bird populations. ECCC publishes the Population Status of Migratory Game Birds in Canada to evaluate the status of migratory game birds and formally reviews the hunting regulations every two years. Additionally, CWS analyzes population trends after surveys are completed.

The second report, Proposals to Amend the Canadian Migratory Birds Regulations, outlines proposed changes to the hunting regulations and overabundant species regulations, as well as any other proposed amendments to the Migratory Birds Regulations, 2022. Proposed changes to the hunting regulations are developed in accordance with the Guidelines for the Establishment of National Regulations for Migratory Bird Hunting. This report is also published every 2 years, concurrently with the revision of the hunting regulations.

The third report, Migratory Birds Regulations in Canada, summarizes the hunting regulations that were approved for the next 2 hunting seasons. This report is published every 2 years, concurrently with the revision of the hunting regulations.

These 3 reports are distributed to organizations and individuals with an interest in migratory bird conservation to provide an opportunity for input on the development of hunting regulations in Canada. They are also available on the ECCC website.

3 Migratory Game Bird Hunting Permit sales and harvest

Information on the sale of Migratory Game Bird Hunting (MGBH) permits is available from 1966 onwards (Figure 3.1). Annual sales peaked in 1978 (524,946 permits sold) and subsequently declined to an all-time low in 2022, when sales were down to 140,133 permits.

In August 2014, ECCC launched a new online e-Permitting system to improve hunters’ access to MGBH permits. Originally, this system allowed hunters to purchase a permit online, and the permit (along with the Canadian Wildlife Habitat Conservation [CWHC] stamp) would then be mailed to the hunter within 3 to 5 business days. As of August 2015, hunters can purchase their MGBH permit with the CWHC stamp online, receive electronic copies of the permit with stamp by email, and print the document. Since the establishment of the e-Permitting system, the number of hunters that buy their permit online has steadily increased, and in 2024, 53% of hunters bought their permit online.

Physical MGBH permits and CWHC stamps continue to be distributed and sold through some Canada Post outlets and a select number of independent vendors. Canada Post is the original MGBH permit vendor and continues to offer them in over 4,000 postal outlets. ECCC works closely with Canada Post to promote communication with outlets and manage inventory and distribution. There are also approximately 50 independent vendors across seven provinces that sell the physical MGBH permits. More information on MGBH permit sales in Canada is available on the ECCC website.

In Canada, the National Harvest Survey was initiated in 1969 to estimate the annual harvest of migratory game birds and to determine trends in hunter activity across Canada. This survey is coordinated by CWS and uses data from hunters to determine the geographic distribution of harvest and to estimate annual species-specific harvest across Canada, provincially, and, if possible, at the Hunting District/Zone level. Participants (hunters) are randomly selected from the pool of permit holders, and responses are voluntary. The survey has 2 components: the Harvest Questionnaire Survey, which is used to estimate the total number of migratory game birds taken by hunters, and the Species Composition Survey, which helps determine the proportion of each species in the total harvest. Harvest estimates are generated by integrating the results of these 2 surveys (Smith, Villeneuve, and Gendron 2022), and the data are used in harvest management decisions and to estimate abundance of some species. Supplemental surveys are undertaken to estimate the numbers of geese harvested during the Spring Conservation Season, a special conservation measure put in place to manager overabundant populations of Snow Geese, Ross’s Geese, and Canada Geese.

Graph of number of Migratory Game Bird Hunting Permit stubs returned

Figure 3.1: Number of Migratory Game Bird Hunting Permit stubs returned to Environment and Climate Change Canada. Note that permits that were sold, but for which stubs were not returned to Environment and Climate Change Canada, are excluded from the totals.

Long description

This line graph shows the trend in the number of permit stubs returned to Environment and Climate Change Canada over time. Overall, the graph demonstrates a historical peak and subsequent long-term decline in the number of permit stubs returned over approximately 50 years.

The X-axis represents the years, ranging from just before 1966 to 2024. The Y-axis shows the number of permit stubs returned, measured in units of 100,000, ranging from 1.5 to slightly above 5.

The number of permit stubs returned steadily increased from the mid 1960s up to a peak of over 500,000 in the late 1970s. After reaching this peak, there was a sharp decline through the 1980s and 1990s, eventually settling below 200,000 in the early 2000s and onward. Since 2000, the numbers have remained relatively low with only slight fluctuations, ending just above 150,000 stubs returned in the early 2020s.

4 Population surveys

The CWS supports a variety of surveys to monitor migratory birds in their breeding, wintering, staging, and moulting areas. Monitoring programs include bird surveys and banding programs. Surveys of breeding migratory game birds are used to estimate population size. Banding programs are used to estimate survival, harvest numbers, and to assess movements of birds and distribution of the harvest. Banding and harvest survey data are sometimes combined using the Lincoln approach to estimate population size. Where available, estimates are presented as means, with 95% confidence intervals. The CWS uses these data to assess the status of migratory game birds in Canada, thus providing a scientific basis for the management of migratory game birds and the implementation of hunting regulations to ensure the long-term sustainability of migratory game birds. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, many surveys could not be conducted, and banding activities were also reduced substantially in 2020 and 2021.

4.1 Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey

The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) in western Canada and the northwestern United States of America (US) consists of extensive aerial transects to estimate the number of breeding waterfowl and to assess habitat conditions for waterfowl (that is, the number of ponds). The survey is conducted annually between May and June and covers the Canadian Prairies and Parkland, the Canadian Western Boreal (northwestern Ontario, northern part of the Prairie provinces, northeast corner of British Columbia, western Northwest Territories, and Old Crow Flats in the Yukon), the north-central US (US Prairies), and parts of Alaska (Figure 4.1).

The survey, which uses fixed-wing aircraft, has been conducted since 1955. Breeding population estimates derived from this survey have been corrected for visibility bias (proportion of waterfowl that are not detected from the air) since 1961. Visibility correction factors are obtained from ground counts conducted by the CWS on a subset of transects in the Canadian Prairies and by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) on a subset of transects in the northern US. In roadless areas of the Canadian Boreal Forest, correction factors are derived from a comparison of fixed-wing and helicopter counts conducted in the 1980s. Estimates of abundance derived from this survey provide important information used to set regulations for duck hunting in both Canada and the US.

Map of Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey

Figure 4.1: The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS) in western Canada and northwestern US, the Eastern Waterfowl Survey (EWS), and the British Columbia Plateau Breeding Waterfowl Survey (BCPBWS). Lines represent fixed-wing aircraft survey transects; dots represent helicopter survey plots.

Long description

This map illustrates survey regions across Canada for waterfowl population studies. Each survey region is outlined and filled with a distinctive colour. Within each survey region, lines and dots are depicted to show the location of fixed-wing survey transects (lines) and helicopter plots (dots).

Survey regions highlighted include:

  • Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (WBPHS):
    • Canadian Prairies (dark orange) and US Prairies (orange).
    • Western Boreal Forest of Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, and Yukon (light yellow).
    • Alaska (magenta red).
  • Eastern Waterfowl Survey (EWS):
    • Core area (teal) represents the EWS survey regions with fixed-wing transects and helicopter plots separated into the Western Boreal Shield (central Ontario and western Quebec), Central Boreal Shield (central Quebec), Eastern Boreal Shield (eastern Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador), and Atlantic Highlands (New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia), each labeled in the legend.
    • Total area (grey) represents the EWS survey regions with only fixed-wing transects.
  • British Columbia Plateau Breeding Waterfowl Survey (BCPBWS) in central British Columbia (dark purple).

4.2 Eastern Waterfowl Survey

The Eastern Waterfowl Survey (EWS) has been conducted annually since 1990. This early nesting breeding pair survey of waterfowl has 2 components: a helicopter plot survey and a fixed-wing transect survey. The CWS carries out the helicopter plot survey in Boreal Shield Regions (from northeastern Ontario to Newfoundland and Labrador) and in the Atlantic Highlands Region (Gaspé Peninsula in Québec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia; Figure 4.1). The USFWS conducts the fixed-wing transect survey in parts of eastern Canada and the northeastern US. The EWS is usually conducted from late April to early June, depending on regional spring phenology.

Though originally designed to survey American Black Ducks in eastern Canada, the survey provides quantitative information on other duck and bird species, notably Canada Geese and Sandhill Crane. Historically, data from the two components of this survey (CWS helicopter plot survey and USFWS fixed-wing transect survey) were analyzed separately, despite substantial overlap in geographic coverage. The 2 components were integrated into one survey in 2004. The EWS results are analyzed based on 4 regions of the core EWS area (strata: 51, 52, 63 to 68, 70 to 72): the Atlantic Highlands, the Eastern Boreal Shield, the Central Boreal Shield, and the Western Boreal Shield (Figure 4.1).

4.3 Other waterfowl surveys

Nunavut is the only province or territory not covered (at least in part) by the WBPHS and EWS.

Since 2006, British Columbia has instead monitored waterfowl using the British Columbia Plateau Breeding Waterfowl Survey (BCPBWS), a small-scale helicopter survey. This survey is run cooperatively by CWS, Ducks Unlimited Canada, and the USFWS and covers 11 million hectares. The survey is accomplished by helicopter using a technique similar to that of the WBPHS, except that all waterfowl sightings are geo-referenced.

Estimates and trends in abundance of many arctic-breeding goose population (Atlantic Brant, Cackling Goose, Mid-continent Greater White-fronted Goose, Mid-continent Lesser Snow Goose, Western Arctic Lesser Snow Goose, and Ross’s Goose) are now calculated from band recovery data and harvest estimates using Lincoln methods (Alisauskas, Drake, and Nichols 2009). Lincoln estimates represent population abundance during the goose banding season (July and August) and are typically not available for the current year because of the timing of data collection. Some Subarctic and temperate breeding Canada Goose populations (for example, Atlantic and Southern Hudson and James Bay Populations) are still monitored by surveys conducted while geese are paired on nests. The Greater Snow Goose population is monitored by a survey on spring staging areas in Québec and Ontario.

The Southern Ontario Waterfowl Plot Survey (SOWPS) was initiated in 1971 to monitor the early-nesting duck populations and their habitat. Surveys are primarily ground-based, but some remote locations are surveyed by helicopter. The survey consists of 351 plots, each 0.64 km2 in area, primarily outside of the EWS area. Data from this survey have also been important in monitoring the population of temperate breeding Canada Geese in southern Ontario.

Since 1935, annual Midwinter Waterfowl Surveys (hereafter Midwinter Surveys) conducted mostly by fixed-wing aircraft with some ground surveys have provided population indices for many waterfowl species based on wintering counts in Ontario as well as the US. Midwinter Surveys, however, are not based on a statistical sampling plan, and some wintering habitats are not covered, so results are best used for evaluating relative abundance and distribution in select wintering areas.

5 Habitat conditions

Environmental conditions on the breeding grounds influence surveys in 2 ways. First, high quality habitat can increase the true abundance of migratory birds on the landscape by increasing breeding success or attracting migrants. Second, environmental conditions can influence migratory birds’ arrival and breeding phenology, changing the perceived abundance at the time of survey.

Moisture conditions in the Prairies are cyclic, and levels of precipitation heavily influence breeding success in the Prairies by changing the number of wetlands available for breeding and the persistence of ponds throughout the breeding season. During the WBPHS, observers count the number of ponds on the landscape in May as an indication of breeding conditions (Figure 5.1). The Palmer Drought Index is another widely used measure of habitat conditions in southern Canada. This index combines precipitation and temperature data to estimate overall dryness, with lower numbers representing drought conditions and higher numbers representing wet conditions (Figure 5.2).

Map of 2025 May Pond Index of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey

Figure 5.1: The 2025 May Pond Index of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey compared to the 10-year regional average. Comparisons are mean-centered and scaled by standard deviation within each strata. Positive values represent areas with more ponds than the 10-year regional average, and negative values represent areas with fewer ponds than average. Grey areas represent strata of the WBPHS where ponds are not surveyed.

Long description

This map of Canada, and Alaska, depicts the 2025 May Pond Index from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey.

On the left side of the map is a vertical legend labeled “Ponds,” which uses a scale to indicate variation in the May Pond Index relative to the 10-year regional average. The scale ranges from below -0.5 (bottom; dark purple) to above 1.0 (top; light yellow). Higher values represent relatively more ponds, and lower values represent relatively fewer ponds. Indices are depicted for each survey strata within the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, but indices are only shown for the Canadian and US Prairies regions, and two strata of the Western Boreal Forest. All other survey strata are shown in grey, as ponds are not surveyed in these areas.

The districts in southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba contain varying intensities, with many areas showing positive indices, indicating more ponds than the 10-year regional average. In the US Prairies, North and South Dakota in particular showed more negative indices, indicating less ponds.

Map of 2025 agricultural year Palmer Drought Index

Figure 5.2: The 2025 agricultural year Palmer Drought Index (September 2024 to August 2025) compared to the 10-year average. Comparisons are mean-centered and scaled by standard deviation by location. Positive values represent areas that are wetter than the 10-year average for the area, and negative values represent areas that are dryer than average. Source: (Agriculture and Agrifood Canada 2025).

Long description

This map of Canada, and Alaska, depicts the 2025 Palmer Drought Index, focusing on the southernmost portions of the country.

Within these southern regions of Canada, there are many irregularly shaped filled areas. These filled areas span sections of southern British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritime provinces.

On the left side of the map is a vertical legend labeled “Palmer Drought Index,” which uses a scale to indicate variation in the Palmer Drought Index relative to the 10-year regional average. The scale ranges from below -2 (bottom; dark purple) to above 2 (top; light yellow). Higher values represent relatively wetter conditions and lower values represent relatively drier conditions. Indices are depicted in areas where data is available. All other areas are shown in white.

Across southern Canada, Palmer Drought Index values were variable, with some districts showing more positive values (wetter conditions) and others showing negative values (drier conditions) according to their shading intensity. Wetter conditions are seen in southern Alberta and southern Quebec. Dry conditions are seen in areas of Ontario and the Maritimes.

The timing of spring thaw also influences the total number and species of birds counted. Surveys must occur during the breeding period to provide accurate counts of breeding birds on the landscape. Spring temperatures and snow conditions influence when breeding begins for many species (Figures 5.3 and 5.4). Colder springs with late snowmelt may delay breeding, resulting in fewer birds being detected in northern breeding areas and/or higher counts in southern areas if the survey is conducted while birds are still migrating through the area (Naugle et al. 2000; Schummer et al. 2018; Roy et al. 2019).

Map of 2025 spring temperatures

Figure 5.3: The 2025 spring temperatures (mean daily highs for March to April) compared to the 10-year average. Comparisons are mean-centered and scaled by standard deviation by location. Positive values represent areas with warmer spring temperatures compared to the 10-year average for the area, while negative values represent areas with colder spring temperatures than average. Source: (Thornton et al. 2022).

Long description

This map of Canada, and Alaska, depicts the 2023 spring temperatures (mean daily highs for March to April) across the country.

On the left side of the map is a vertical legend labeled “Spring temp.,” which uses a scale to indicate variation in the spring temperatures relative to the 10-year regional average. The scale ranges from below -2 (bottom; dark purple) to above 2 (top; light yellow). Higher values represent relatively warmer temperatures and lower values represent relatively cooler temperatures.

The map shows a distinct pattern where Alaska, and the western and Prairie provinces display relatively lower spring temperatures. Provinces in the east and north (including Nunavut, Quebec, southern and eastern Ontario, and the Maritime provinces), display relatively warmer spring temperatures.

Map of 2025 snowmelt date

Figure 5.4: The 2025 snowmelt date compared to the 10-year average. Comparisons are mean centered-centered and scaled by standard deviation by location. Positive values represent areas where the snow melted later than 10-year average for the area, while negative values represent areas where snow melted earlier than average. Source: (U.S. National Ice Center 2008).

Long description

This map of Canada, and Alaska, depicts the 2025 snowmelt dates across the country.

On the left side of the map is a vertical legend labeled “Snowmelt,” which uses a scale to indicate variation in the snowmelt date relative to the 10-year regional average. The scale ranges from below -2 (bottom; dark purple) to above 2 (top; light yellow). Positive values represent areas where the snow melted later than 10-year average for the area, while negative values represent areas where snow melted earlier than average. 

The map shows highly variable relative snowmelt dates across the country. The Canadian Prairies and Western Boreal Forest show relatively later snowmelt dates. Areas in Western Alaska, Nunavut, northern Ontario, and Newfoundland show relatively earlier snowmelt. 

6 Dabbling and diving ducks

6.1 Primary surveys for dabbling and diving ducks

Most dabbling and diving ducks are monitored through the WBPHS, which covers western Canada and the northwestern US, the EWS, which covers eastern Canada, and the BCPBWS, which covers interior British Columbia. Multiple smaller scale waterfowl surveys provide additional regional information on waterfowl abundance and in some cases provide more detailed information for species that have restricted ranges or those that are not captured well by large-scale surveys. Unless the WBPHS, EWS, and BCPBWS do not provide adequate information about a species’ population status across their range, this report does not refer to smaller-scale waterfowl surveys.

6.2 Population status of dabbling and diving ducks

Abundances of most species of dabbling and diving ducks have shown no significant long-term trend or are increasing in Canada. Of the 12 species of dabbling and diving ducks found in western Canada that are monitored by the WBPHS, 3 have shown no significant changes since 1970, 6 have increased, and 3 have decreased. Over the past 5 years, 9 have shown no significant changes and 3 have decreased. Of the 5 principal species in eastern Canada that are monitored by the EWS, 3 have shown no significant changes and 2 have increased since 1990. In the short term, 4 have shown no significant changes since 2015 and one species has increased.

There are currently approximately 31.8 million breeding dabbling and diving ducks in the WBPHS survey area; the most common species are Mallard, Blue-winged Teal, Scaup sp. and American Wigeon. In the EWS survey area, there are 1.95 million breeding dabbling and diving ducks, and the most common species are Ring-necked Duck, Mallard, American Black Duck and Green-winged Teal. In the BCPBWS survey area, there are 343 thousand breeding ducks, and the most common species are Ring-necked Duck, Mallard, Scaup sp. and Green-winged Teal.

6.2.1 American Black Duck

In the core area of the EWS, the population of American Black Duck has significantly increased since 1990 and over the past 5 years (Figure 6.4). The Atlantic Highlands, Eastern Boreal Shield, and Central Boreal Shield Populations have significantly increased since 1990. Populations in all other regions of the EWS showed no significant changes during this time. The Eastern Boreal Shield Population has significantly increased since 2021. Populations in all other regions of the EWS showed no significant changes from 2021 to 2025. In 2025, there were 560 (499 - 630) thousand American Black Ducks in the core survey area of the EWS. This estimate is 11% above the 10-year average of 502 thousand birds.

6.2.2 Mallard

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Mallard has significantly decreased since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in Alaska, decreased in the Canadian Prairies, and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Mallard has significantly decreased across the entire survey area. More specifically, in the short term, abundance decreased in the Canadian Prairies and the US Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. In 2025, there were 6.55 (6.04 - 7.07) million Mallards in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 23% below the 10-year average of 8.46 million birds. The 2025 Mallard population in this region was below the NAWMP population objective of 7.77 million birds.

In the core area of the EWS, since 1990, the population of Mallard has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly (Figure 6.4). The Atlantic Highlands, Eastern Boreal Shield, Central Boreal Shield, and Western Boreal Shield Populations have significantly increased since 1990. The Atlantic Highlands Population has significantly increased since 2021. Populations in all other regions of the EWS showed no significant changes from 2021 to 2025. In 2025, there were 569 (394 to 886) thousand Mallards in the core survey area of the EWS. This estimate is 3.6% above the 10-year average of 549 thousand birds.

In Southern Ontario, since 1971, the population of Mallard has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly in this region. In 2025, there were 117 (95.7 - 142) thousand Mallard breeding pairs (Figure 6.1). This estimate is 2.8% above the 10-year average of 113 thousand breeding pairs.

Graph of Indicated breeding pairs of Mallard in southern Ontario

Figure 6.1: Indicated breeding pairs of Mallard in southern Ontario. Black line represents the breeding pair estimate, and the shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval.

Long description

This line graph shows a time series (1971 to 2025) tracking the estimated number of breeding pairs (in thousands) of Mallards in southern Ontario. Overall, the graph demonstrates a steady increase between 1971 and 2025 with some annual fluctuation.

The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1971 to 2025. The Y-axis shows the number of breeding pairs, measured in units of 1,000, ranging from 40 to 160.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate of breeding pairs. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

  • There was a spike in breeding pairs in the mid 1970s, rising abruptly from below 60,000 to almost 120,000.
  • After this spike, the number of breeding pairs drops back to roughly 70,000 pairs and steadily increases with regular annual fluctuation until the late 2000s, when the number of breeding pairs was roughly 110,000.
  • From the late 2000s onward, the population fluctuates annually, but there is no overall trend. 

In the British Columbia Plateau, the population of Mallard has not changed significantly since 2006 and over the past 5 years (Figure 6.6). In 2025, there were 81.3 (69.9 - 92.7) thousand birds. This estimate is 3.3% above the 10-year average of 78.7 thousand birds.

6.2.3 Northern Pintail

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Northern Pintail has significantly decreased since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in the Western Boreal Forest, decreased in the Canadian Prairies and the US Prairies, and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Northern Pintail has not changed significantly across the entire survey area. More specifically, in the short term, abundance in the Canadian Prairies increased, decreased in the US Prairies, and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. In 2025, there were 2.24 (1.91 – 2.57) million Northern Pintails in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 2.4% below the 10-year average of 2.29 million birds. The 2025 Northern Pintail population in this region was below the NAWMP population objective of 3.15 million birds.

In the British Columbia Plateau, the population of Northern Pintail has not changed significantly since 2006 and over the past five years (Figure 6.6). In 2025, there were 4.92 (1.06 – 8.77) thousand birds. This estimate is 17% above the 10-year average of 4.21 thousand birds.

6.2.4 Green-winged Teal

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Green-winged Teal has significantly increased since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in the Western Boreal Forest, decreased in the Canadian Prairies, and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Green-winged Teal has not changed significantly across the entire survey area. More specifically, in the short term, abundance decreased in Alaska and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. In 2025, there were 2.55 (2.11 – 2.99) million Green-winged Teal in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 16% below the 10-year average of 3.04 million birds. The 2025 Green-winged Teal population in this region was above the NAWMP population objective of 2.4 million birds.

In the core area of the EWS, the population of Green-winged Teal has not changed significantly since 1990 and over the past five years (Figure 6.4), but the Atlantic Highlands Population has significantly increased since 1990. Populations in all other regions of the EWS showed no significant changes during this time. In the short term, there were no significant changes in any region of the EWS. In 2025, there were 234 (186 – 301) thousand Green-winged Teal in the core survey area of the EWS. This is similar to the 10-year average of 238 thousand birds.

In the British Columbia Plateau, the population of Green-winged Teal has not changed significantly since 2006 and over the past five years (Figure 6.6). In 2025, there were 44.1 (33.8 – 54.4) thousand birds. This estimate is 5.8% above the 10-year average of 41.7 thousand birds.

6.2.5 Blue-winged Teal

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Blue-winged Teal has not changed significantly since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in the US Prairies, decreased in the Canadian Prairies, and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Blue-winged Teal has significantly decreased across the entire survey area. More specifically, in the short term, abundance decreased in the US Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. In 2025, there were 4.43 (3.99 – 4.87) million Blue-winged Teal in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 25% below the 10-year average of 5.9 million birds. The 2025 Blue-winged Teal population in this region was below the NAWMP population objective of 5.48 million birds.

In the British Columbia Plateau, since 2006, the population of Blue-winged Teal has significantly increased, but over the past five years, this population has not changed significantly (Figure 6.6). In 2025, there were 11.3 (6.69 – 15.9) thousand birds. This estimate is 63% above the 10-year average of 6.92 thousand birds.

6.2.6 American Wigeon

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of American Wigeon has not changed significantly since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in the Western Boreal Forest and the US Prairies and decreased in Alaska and the Canadian Prairies. Over the past 5  years, abundance of American Wigeon has not changed significantly across the entire survey area. More specifically, in the short term, abundance in the Western Boreal Forest increased, decreased in Alaska, and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. In 2025, there were 3.19 (2.66 – 3.73) million American Wigeons in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 16% above the 10-year average of 2.75 million birds. The 2025 American Wigeon population in this region was above the NAWMP population objective of 2.52 million birds.

In the core area of the EWS, the population of American Wigeon has not changed significantly since 1990 and over the past 5 years (Figure 6.4). The Western Boreal Shield Population has significantly increased since 1990. Populations in all other regions of the EWS showed no significant changes during this time. In the short term, there were no significant changes in any region of the EWS. In 2025, there were 17.7 (0.155 – 35.2) thousand American Wigeons in the core survey area of the EWS. This estimate is 30% above the 10-year average of 13.6 thousand birds.

In the British Columbia Plateau, the population of American Wigeon has not changed significantly since 2006 and over the past five years (Figure 6.6). In 2025, there were 19.6 (14.4 – 24.8) thousand birds. This estimate is 4.9% below the 10-year average of 20.6 thousand birds.

6.2.7 Gadwall

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Gadwall has significantly increased since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in the Western Boreal Forest, the Canadian Prairies, and the US Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Gadwall has significantly decreased across the entire survey area. In the short term, there were no significant changes in any region of the WBPHS. In 2025, there were 2.41 (2.19 – 2.64) million Gadwalls in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 19% below the 10-year average of 3 million birds. The 2025 Gadwall population in this region was below the NAWMP population objective of 2.43 million birds.

In the British Columbia Plateau, the population of Gadwall has not changed significantly since 2006 and over the past five years (Figure 6.6). In 2025, there were 5.03 (1.74 – 8.32) thousand birds. This estimate is 17% above the 10-year average of 4.31 thousand birds.

6.2.8 Northern Shoveler

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Northern Shoveler has significantly increased since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in Alaska, the Western Boreal Forest, and the Canadian Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Northern Shoveler has not changed significantly across the entire survey area. More specifically, in the short term, abundance decreased in Alaska and the US Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. In 2025, there were 2.76 (2.44 – 3.08) million Northern Shovelers in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 20% below the 10-year average of 3.43 million birds. The 2025 Northern Shoveler population in this region was below the NAWMP population objective of 2.99 million birds.

6.2.9 Wood Duck

Estimating the breeding population of Wood Duck is difficult because the species’ breeding behaviour and habitat use result in low detection from traditional fixed-wing surveys (Zimmerman et al. 2015). In the eastern portion of its range, the Wood Duck is best surveyed by the SOWPS. Since 1971, the population of Wood Duck has significantly increased, but over the past five years, this population has not changed significantly. In 2025, there were 51.5 (38.8 – 69.2) thousand Wood Duck breeding pairs in southern Ontario (Figure 6.2). This estimate is 11% above the 10-year average of 46.5 thousand breeding pairs.

Graph of Indicated breeding pairs of Wood Duck in southern Ontario

Figure 6.2: Indicated breeding pairs of Wood Duck in southern Ontario. The black line represents breeding pair estimate, and the shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval.

Long description

This line graph shows a time series (1971 to 2025) tracking the estimated number of breeding pairs (in thousands) of Wood Duck in southern Ontario. Overall, the graph demonstrates an increase between 1971 and 2025, with much of these increases occurring between 2000 and the late 2010s.

The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1971 to 2025. The Y-axis shows the number of breeding pairs, measured in units of 1,000, ranging from 0 to more than 60.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate of breeding pairs. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

  • From the beginning of the time series until around 2000, the breeding pair estimates remain relatively stable and are centered around 10,000 to 15,000.
  • Around the year 2000, there is a decrease followed by an upward trend, with annual fluctuations, until a peak in the late 2010s where the breeding pair estimates reach roughly 60,000 pairs.
  • Following that peak, the breeding pairs slightly decreases to below 40,000 pairs and increases again in 2025. 

Wood duck populations are also estimated using Lincoln estimates in the eastern and western portions of their range. The Lincoln method estimated that there were 4.34 (3.6 – 5.09) million Eastern Wood Ducks in 2024 (Figure 6.3). This estimate is 5.4% above the 10-year average of 4.12 million birds. The Lincoln method indicates that the Eastern Population peaked in 1998 at 6.34 (5.2 – 7.48) million birds. Since 1961, the Eastern Population of Wood Duck has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly.

There were 59.2 (8.45 – 110) thousand Western Wood Ducks in 2024 (Figure 6.3), as estimated using the Lincoln method. Since 1961, the Western Population of Wood Duck has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly. This estimate is 36% below the 10-year average of 92.5 thousand birds. The Lincoln method indicates that the Western Population peaked in 1998 at 307 (23.2 – 590) thousand birds.

Graphs of Lincoln estimates of population size for adult Wood Ducks in Eastern and Western North America

Figure 6.3: Lincoln estimates of population size for adult Wood Ducks in Eastern and Western North America. Lines represent population estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals. Source: (F. Baldwin, ECCC - CWS, unpubl. data).

Long description

These line graphs show a time series (1961 to 2024) tracking the Lincoln estimates for population sizes (in 1,000,000) of adult Wood Ducks in Eastern (left graph) and Western (right graph) North America. For the Eastern Population, the graph demonstrates an increase between 1961 and the later 1990s, followed by a decrease into the 2000s where the population size remains stable at around 4 million. For the Western Population, the population has increased since 1961, but since 1990 the population size is relatively stable.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1961 to 2024. The Y-axes show the Lincoln estimates for population sizes, measured in units of 1,000,000, ranging from 0 to more than 6 (Eastern) and from 0 to 0.6 (Western).

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly Lincoln estimate for population size. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

  1. Left panel ("Eastern"):
    • Population size increased gradually from the 1960s, rising steadily through the 1980s and 1990s, peaking above 6 million in 1998.
    • Around 2000, the population size stabilizes at roughly 4 million.
  2. Right panel ("Western"):
    • Before 1990, population estimates are very low.
    • After 1990, population estimates fluctuate yearly, but show no overall trend. 

Comparing across graphs:

  • The Eastern Population has higher population estimates compared to Western Population.

6.2.10 Ring-necked Duck

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Ring-necked Duck has significantly increased since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in the Western Boreal Forest and the Canadian Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Ring-necked Duck has not changed significantly across the entire survey area. More specifically, in the short term, abundance decreased in the Canadian Prairies and the US Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. In 2025, there were 1.53 (1.28 – 1.79) million Ring-necked Ducks in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 2.4% below the 10-year average of 1.57 million birds.

In the core area of the EWS, the population of Ring-necked Duck has not changed significantly since 1990 and over the past five years (Figure 6.4). The Atlantic Highlands and Eastern Boreal Shield Populations have significantly increased since 1990. Populations in all other regions of the EWS showed no significant changes during this time. In the short term, there were no significant changes in any region of the EWS. In 2025, there were 573 (466 – 716) thousand Ring-necked Ducks in the core survey area of the EWS. This estimate is 7.7% above the 10-year average of 532 thousand birds.

In the British Columbia Plateau, the population of Ring-necked Duck has not changed significantly since 2006 and over the past five years (Figure 6.6). In 2025, there were 89.2 (72.2 – 106) thousand birds. This estimate is 8.4% above the 10-year average of 82.3 thousand birds.

6.2.11 Redhead

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Redhead has significantly increased since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in the Canadian Prairies and the US Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past five years, abundance of Redhead has not changed significantly across the entire survey area or in any region of the WBPHS. In 2025, there were 918 (765 – 1070) thousand Redheads in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 6.1% below the 10-year average of 978 thousand birds. The 2025 Redhead population in this region was above the NAWMP population objective of 811 thousand birds.

6.2.12 Canvasback

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Canvasback has not changed significantly since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in the US Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Canvasback has not changed significantly across the entire survey area or in any region of the WBPHS. In 2025, there were 690 (573 – 808) thousand Canvasbacks in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 5% above the 10-year average of 657 thousand birds. The 2025 Canvasback population in this region was above the NAWMP population objective of 605 thousand birds.

6.2.13 Ruddy Duck

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Ruddy Duck has significantly increased since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in the Canadian Prairies and the US Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Ruddy Duck has not changed significantly across the entire survey area or in any region of the WBPHS. In 2025, there were 764 (569 – 960) thousand Ruddy Ducks in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This is similar to the 10-year average of 760 thousand birds.

In the British Columbia Plateau, the population of Ruddy Duck has not changed significantly since 2006 and over the past five years (Figure 6.6). In 2025, there were 6.67 (3.31 – 10) thousand birds. This estimate is 68% above the 10-year average of 3.97 thousand birds.

6.2.14 Scaup

Lesser and Greater Scaup are closely related and nearly identical in their overall appearance, which can make it difficult to distinguish one species from the other, particularly when observing them from the air. As such, the abundance of Greater Scaup and Lesser Scaup are combined into Scaup sp. for reporting, although Lesser Scaup make up a larger proportion of the continental Scaup sp. population than do Greater Scaup (Anteau et al. 2020).

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Scaup sp. has significantly decreased since 1970 (Figure 6.5). More specifically, abundance increased in the US Prairies and decreased in Alaska, the Western Boreal Forest, and the Canadian Prairies. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Scaup sp. has not changed significantly across the entire survey area or in any region of the WBPHS. In 2025, there were 3.68 (3.27 – 4.08) million Scaup sp. in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 7.7% below the 10-year average of 3.98 million birds. The 2025 Scaup sp. population in this region was below the NAWMP population objective of 4.67 million birds.

In the core area of the EWS, the population of Scaup sp. has not changed significantly since 1990 and over the past five years (Figure 6.4). The Atlantic Highlands Population has significantly increased since 1990. Populations in all other regions of the EWS showed no significant changes during this time. There were no significant 5-year trends in any region of the EWS. In 2025, there were 11.4 (1.44 – 21.4) thousand Scaup sp. in the core survey area of the EWS. This is similar to the 10-year average of 11.5 thousand birds.

In the British Columbia Plateau, the population of Scaup sp. has not changed significantly since 2006 and over the past five years (Figure 6.6). In 2025, there were 53.8 (33.3 – 74.3) thousand birds. This estimate is 14% above the 10-year average of 47.2 thousand birds.

Graphs of Breeding population estimates for dabbling and diving ducks in the Eastern Waterfowl Survey

Figure 6.4: Breeding population estimates for dabbling and diving ducks in the Eastern Waterfowl Survey. Black lines represent population estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% credible intervals. Figure shows combined results of helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft surveys across the core survey area (strata: 51, 52, 63 to 68, 70 to 72).

Long description

Figure 6.4 displays six individual line graphs, arranged in two rows of three, each showing a time series (1990 to 2025) tracking the breeding population estimates (in 1,000) for six species of dabbling and diving ducks surveyed in the Eastern Waterfowl Survey.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1990 to 2025. A break in the timeline can be observed between 2019 and 2022 as the populations were not surveyed because population surveys were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Y-axes show the abundance, measured in units of 1,000, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate of abundance. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% credible interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:
Top row (left to right):

  1. American Black Duck:
    • Abundance fluctuates between 400,000 and 600,000 individuals, with an overall increase between 1990 and 2025. Peaks in abundance are frequent, and abundance is lower on average in the 2010s.
  2. American Wigeon:
    • Abundance ranges between 5,000 and 20,000 individuals, with no overall change between 1990 and 2025. Peaks in abundance are frequent, but no directional change is observed.
  3. Green-winged Teal:
    • Abundance ranges between 200,000 and 300,000 individuals, with no overall change between 1990 and 2025. Peaks in abundance are frequent, but no directional change is observed.

Bottom row (left to right):

  1. Mallard:
    • Abundance begins at below 400,000 individuals in 1990 and rises steadily until 2019 where the population is at 400,000 individuals. After a gap in survey effort due to COVID-19, the population jumps to nearly 600,000 individuals in 2025.
  2. Ring-necked Duck:
    • Abundance ranges between 450,000 and 700,000 individuals, with noticeable peaks around 1997 and 2008. Between 1990 and 2025 abundance remains around 500,000 individuals.
  3. Scaup sp.:
    • Abundance remained below 50,000 individuals, with several prominent peaks and valleys in abundance. The overall trend is relatively flat, with high variability, as the population size remained around 20,000 individuals in 1990 and 2025.

Comparing across graphs:

  • The highest abundance was seen in in Mallard, American Black Duck, and Ring-necked Duck.
  • The greatest increase was seen in Mallard, with a rise from 400,000 to almost 600,000 individuals.
  • The most variable was Scaup sp., with frequent spikes and dips and wide confidence bands.
  • American Wigeon, Green-winged Teal, and Ring-necked Duck all showed little overall directional change.
Graphs of Breeding population estimates for dabbling and diving ducks based

Figure 6.5: Breeding population estimates for dabbling and diving ducks based on the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in western Canada and the northwestern US. Black lines represent population estimates in the Traditional Survey Area, shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals, and horizontal dashed lines represent NAWMP long-term goals for the survey area.

Long description

Figure 6.5 displays twelve individual line graphs, arranged in four rows of three, each showing a time series (1970 to 2025) tracking the breeding population estimates (in 1,000,000) for twelve species of dabbling and diving ducks surveyed in the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1970 to 2025. A break in the timeline can be observed between 2019 and 2022 as the populations were not surveyed because population surveys were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Y-axes show the abundance, measured in units of 1,000,000, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate of abundance. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Some graphs also feature a horizontal dashed line representing the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP) long-term goals for that species.
Key patterns in the graph:
Top row (left to right):

  1. American Wigeon:
    • Overall, abundance (roughly 3.5 million individuals) has not changed between 1970 and 2025. Starting near 3.5 million individuals in 1970, abundance mostly fluctuates between 2 and 3.5 million individuals. Peaks are seen in the 1980s, early 2000s, and 2010s. In 2025, the population is above 3 million individuals, which is above the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line).
  2. Blue-winged Teal:
    • Overall, abundance (roughly 5 million individuals) has not changed between 1970 and 2025. Abundance is generally below the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line), other than periods in the late 1990s and 2000s to 2020. In 2025, abundance is below the NAWMP long-term goal. Since the peak in abundance in 2010, abundance has generally declined.
  3. Canvasback:
    • Overall, abundance ranges from 400,000 to 800,000 individuals, fluctuating around the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line). In 2025, abundance is above the NAWMP long-term goal.

Second row (left to right):

  1. Gadwall:
    • Since 1970, abundance has increased overall. Before 1990, abundance was stable at 1.5 million individuals, but this estimate was below the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line). In the 1990s, there was a sharp increase in abundance to almost 4 million individuals followed by a decline to 2.5 million in the 2000s. Between 2000 and 2027, there was another period of increase followed by a decline in abundance to 2025. In 2025, abundance was slightly below the NAWMP long-term goal.
  2. Green-winged Teal:
    • Since 1970, abundance has increased overall. Abundance ranged from 1.5 million to 4 million individuals, with a general increase in abundance between 1990 and the mid 2010s in particular. In 2025, abundance was above the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line).
  3. Mallard:
    • Between 1970 and 2025, abundance decreased overall (10 million to 6 million individuals), despite several periods of high abundance in the 1990s and 2010s. After 2017, there was a decline in abundance from almost 12 million to 6 million individuals in 2025. In 2025, abundance is below the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line).

Third row (left to right):

  1. Northern Pintail:
    • Between 1970 and 2025, abundance decreased overall (6 million to 2 million individuals). The decline primarily occurred between 1970 and the late 1980s, after which abundance remains mostly below the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line) and shows no direction trend. In 2025, abundance is below the NAWMP long-term goal.
  2. Northern Shoveler:
    • Between 1970 and 2025, abundance increased overall (2 million to almost 3 million individuals), but this increase is below the peak in abundance in the early 2010s of 5 million individuals. After this peak, abundance declines to the current level in 2025, where it is below the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line).
  3. Redhead:
    • Between 1970 and 2025, abundance increased overall (600,000 to 900,000 individuals), fluctuating between 500,000 and 1.2 million individuals. This overall increase is below the peak in abundance in the early 2010s of 1.3 million individuals. After this peak, abundance declines to the current level in 2025, where it is above the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line).

Bottom row (left to right):

  1. Ring-necked Duck:
    • Consistent increase in abundance between 1970 and 2025, from around 0.5 million individuals in 1970 to nearly 1.5 million individuals by 2020. The upward trend is steady, with only mild multi-year dips and peaks.
  2. Ruddy Duck:
    • General increase in abundance between 1970 and 2025, with many fluctuations ranging from 200,000 to 1 million individuals. Abundance peaked in the mid 2010s at over 1 million individuals.
  3. Scaup sp.:
    • Notable decline between 1970 and 2025, from around 6 million in 1970 to about 4 million in the last three decades. The trend is primarily downward, but stabilizes in the mid 1990s. Since the decline, only a handful of years have shown abundance above the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line). In 2025, abundance is currently below the long-term goal.

Comparing across graphs:

  • The highest abundance was seen in Mallard and Blue-winged Teal. 
  • Increases were seen in Gadwall, Green-winged Teal, Northern Shoveler, Redhead, Ring-necked Duck, and Ruddy Duck.
  • Decreases were seen in Mallard, Northern Pintail, and Scaup sp.
  • American Wigeon, Blue-winged Teal, and Canvasback showed little overall directional change.
Graphs of Breeding population estimates for dabbling and diving ducks in the British Columbia Central Plateau

Figure 6.6: Breeding population estimates for dabbling and diving ducks in the British Columbia Central Plateau. Black lines represent population estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals.

Long description

Figure 6.6 displays ten individual line graphs, arranged in four rows of three (only 1 graph in last row), each showing a time series (2006 to 2025) tracking the breeding population estimates (in thousands) for ten species of dabbling and diving ducks in the British Columbia Central Plateau.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 2006 to 2025. A break in the timeline can be observed between 2019 and 2022 as the populations were not surveyed because population surveys were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Y-axes show the abundance, measured in units of 1,000, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate of abundance. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

Top row (left to right):

  1. American Wigeon
    • Abundance fluctuates from about 15,000 to 25,000 individuals, but shows no overall change between 2006 and 2025. The graph shows regular short-term peaks and dips, but overall remains fairly stable.
  2. Blue-winged Teal
    • Abundance generally fluctuates from 4,000 to 10,000 individuals, but there is a noticeable peak above 20,000 individuals in 2008. Between 2006 and 2025, abundance increased, but the current estimates are below the high estimate in 2008.
  3. Gadwall
    • Abundance generally fluctuated between 2,000 and 10,000 individuals, with moderate peaks and troughs. Overall, abundance did not change between 2006 and 2025.

Second row (left to right):

  1. Green-winged Teal
    • Abundance generally fluctuated between 30,000 and 60,000 individuals, with a moderate peak in 2019. Overall, abundance did not change between 2006 and 2025.
  2. Mallard
    • Abundance generally fluctuated between 70,000 and 100,000 individuals, with moderate peaks at the beginning and end of the timeseries. Overall, abundance did not change between 2006 and 2025.
  3. Northern Pintail
    • Abundance generally fluctuated between 2,000 and 7,000 individuals, with moderate peaks and troughs. Overall, abundance did not change between 2006 and 2025.

Third row (left to right):

  1. Northern Shoveler
    • General increase in abundance from 8,000 individuals in 2006 to almost 25,000 individuals in 2026 with regular yearly fluctuations.
  2. Ring-necked Duck
    • Abundance generally fluctuated between 50,000 and 90,000 individuals, with one exceptional peak of 110,000 individuals in 2022. Overall, abundance did not change between 2006 and 2025.
  3. Ruddy Duck
    • Abundance generally fluctuated between 2,000 and 8,000 individuals, with regular yearly fluctuation. Overall, abundance did not change between 2006 and 2025.

Bottom row (left to right):

  1. Scaup sp.
    • Abundance generally fluctuated between 30,000 and 70,000 individuals. Overall, abundance did not change between 2006 and 2025.

Comparing across graphs:

  • The highest abundance was seen in Ring-necked Duck, Mallard, and Scaup sp. 
  • Increases were seen in Blue-winged Teal and Northern Shoveler.
  • All other species show little overall change in abundance.

6.3 Harvest of dabbling and diving ducks

Annual dabbling and diving duck harvest peaked in 1976 when approximately 3.69 million ducks were harvested in Canada (Figure 6.7). Following declines in MGBH permit sales, harvest of American Black Duck, Green-winged Teal, American Wigeon, Blue-winged Teal, Canvasback, Gadwall, Greater Scaup, Lesser Scaup, Mallard, Northern Pintail, Northern Shoveler, Redhead, Ring-necked Duck, Ruddy Duck, and Wood Duck has significantly decreased since 1976. Harvest of Green-winged Teal, American Wigeon, Canvasback, Gadwall, Lesser Scaup, Mallard, Northern Pintail, and Northern Shoveler has significantly increased over the past 5 years. Harvest of Wood Duck has significantly decreased over the past 5 years. Harvest of American Black Duck, Blue-winged Teal, Greater Scaup, Redhead, Ring-necked Duck, and Ruddy Duck remained stable over this period. In 2024, there were approximately 691 thousand ducks harvested. Mallards comprised 48% of the duck harvest, followed by American Black Ducks (8.1%), Green-winged Teal (7.5%), Northern Pintails (6.5%), and Wood Ducks (5.5%).

Graphs of estimated harvest in Canada of dabbling and diving ducks by species, from the National Harvest Survey

Figure 6.7: Estimated harvest in Canada of dabbling and diving ducks by species, from the National Harvest Survey (Smith, Villeneuve, and Gendron 2022). Black line represents the harvest estimate, and the shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval.

Long description

Figure 6.7 displays fifteen individual line graphs, arranged in five rows of three, each showing a time series (1976 to 2024) tracking the estimated harvest (in 1,000,000) for fifteen species of dabbling and diving ducks harvested in Canada.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1976 to 2024. The Y-axes show the harvest estimate, measured in units of 1,000,000, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate for harvest. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

First row (left to right):

  1. American Black Duck
    • Harvest starts near 350,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 60,000 by 2024.
  2. American Wigeon
    • Harvest starts near 150,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 350,000 by 2024.
  3. Blue-winged Teal
    • Harvest starts near 150,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 30,000 by 2024.

Second row (left to right):

  1. Canvasback
    • Harvest starts near 30,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching 10,000 by 2024.  
  2. Gadwall
    • Harvest starts near 120,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 50,000 by 2024.  
  3. Greater Scaup
    • Harvest starts near 70,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching 10,000 by 2024.  

Third row (left to right):

  1. Green-winged Teal
    • Harvest starts near 250,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 50,000 by 2024.  
  2. Lesser Scaup
    • Harvest starts near 140,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 20,000 by 2024.  
  3. Mallard
    • Harvest starts near 1.9 million in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching 300,000 by 2024.  

Fourth row (left to right):

  1. Northern Pintail
    • Harvest starts near 190,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching 50,000 by 2024.
  2. Northern Shoveler
    • Harvest starts near 190,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching 50,000 by 2024.
  3. Redhead
    • Harvest starts near 60,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching 10,000 by 2024.

Fifth row (left to right):

  1. Ring-necked Duck
    • Harvest starts near 110,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 20,000 by 2024.
  2. Ruddy Duck
    • Harvest starts near 6,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching 1,000 by 2024.
  3. Wood Duck
    • Harvest starts near 140,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching 50,000 by 2024.

Comparative observations:

  • Every species in these graphs shows a strong overall decline in harvest numbers from the late 1970s through 2024.

7 Sea ducks

7.1 Primary surveys for sea ducks

Most species of sea ducks are poorly monitored by traditional waterfowl surveys. In particular, the WBPHS, which is used as a basis for monitoring populations and setting population goals for many North American waterfowl, is not well-suited to surveying sea duck populations. This is because the core breeding range of half of North America’s sea duck species lies outside the area covered by the WBPHS, and the survey is conducted too early to effectively count breeding sea ducks, which generally nest later than dabbling and diving ducks. Additionally, some species of sea ducks are difficult to differentiate from a fixed-wing aircraft; therefore, WBPHS estimates represent pooled counts for some sea duck groups (for example, Scoter sp., Goldeneye sp., Merganser sp.). Helicopter surveys, such as the EWS, do allow observers to distinguish between species, but survey timing is earlier than is optimal for counting breeding sea ducks.

7.2 Population status of sea ducks

7.2.1 Bufflehead

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Bufflehead has significantly increased since 1970 (Figure 7.4). More specifically, abundance increased in the Western Boreal Forest and the Canadian Prairies and has not changed significantly in all other regions. Over the past five years, abundance of Bufflehead has not changed significantly across the entire survey area or any region of the WBPHS. In 2025, there were 1.38 (1.17 – 1.6) million Buffleheads in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 12% above the 10-year average of 1.24 million birds. The 2025 Bufflehead population in this region was above the NAWMP population objective of 984 thousand birds.

The breeding range of Bufflehead in the core area of the EWS is primarily restricted to the Western Boreal Shield region. In this region, since 1990, the population of Bufflehead has significantly decreased, but over the past five years, this population has not changed significantly (Figure 7.5). In 2025, across the Western Boreal Shield region of the EWS, there were 7.6 (1.42 – 13.8) thousand Buffleheads. This estimate is 70% below the 10-year average of 25.2 thousand birds.

In the British Columbia Plateau, since 2006, the population of Bufflehead has significantly increased, but over the past five years, this population has not changed significantly (Figure 7.6). In 2025, there were 51.3 (43.8 – 58.7) thousand birds. This estimate is 4.5% above the 10-year average of 49 thousand birds.

7.2.2 Long-tailed Duck

Long-tailed Duck is not frequently surveyed by any current monitoring program.

7.2.3 Harlequin Duck

There are 2 populations of Harlequin Ducks: Eastern and Western. Neither population is surveyed regularly by any monitoring program. The Western Population breeds in Alaska, the Yukon, British Columbia, Alberta, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, and Washington.

The Eastern Population contains 2 distinct subpopulations that winter separately. One subpopulation breeds in the northern half of Québec and Labrador, and winters in Greenland; the other subpopulation breeds in southern Labrador, Newfoundland, the North Shore and the Gaspé Peninsula of Québec, and New Brunswick, and winters mostly in eastern North America (Québec, Maritimes, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon [France], and Maine). There appears to be little mixing between these subpopulations (Scribner et al. 2000; M. Robert et al. 2008; Thomas et al. 2008). The Eastern Population declined in the 1980s and was listed as Special Concern under the Canadian Species at Risk Act in 2003. Hunting of this population has been closed since 1990, and the population has since increased. Based on the Christmas Bird Count, there are 5682 (5065 – 6354) Harlequin Ducks at the main wintering sites in Newfoundland, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia (Gutowsky et al. 2022). The number of Harlequin Ducks wintering in eastern Canada is increasing, and their distribution has expanded, particularly in Nova Scotia (Gutowsky et al. 2022). In Quebec, 480 Harlequin Ducks were counted during the triennial Barrow’s Goldeneye winter survey in February 2024.

7.2.4 Common Goldeneye

The Common Goldeneye is surveyed in the east by the EWS and in the west by the WBPHS. Fixed-wing airplane survey protocols do not distinguish between Common Goldeneye and Barrow’s Goldeneye, but Barrow’s Goldeneye are rare in the WBPHS survey area. Therefore, numbers presented for the WBPHS predominately represent Common Goldeneyes.

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Goldeneye sp. (mostly Common Goldeneye) has significantly increased since 1970 (Figure 7.4). More specifically, abundance increased in the Western Boreal Forest and the Canadian Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years, abundance of Goldeneye sp. has not changed significantly across the entire survey area. More specifically, in the short term, abundance in the Western Boreal Forest increased and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. In 2025, there were 826 (630 – 1020) thousand Goldeneye sp. in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 17% above the 10-year average of 704 thousand birds.

In the core area of the EWS, the population of Common Goldeneye has not changed significantly since 1990 and over the past five years (Figure 7.5). The Central Boreal Shield and Western Boreal Shield Populations have significantly increased and the Eastern Boreal Shield Population has significantly decreased since 1990. Populations in all other regions of the EWS showed no significant changes during this time. In the short term, there were no significant changes in any region of the EWS. In 2025, there were 226 (151 – 301) thousand Common Goldeneyes in the core survey area of the EWS. This estimate is 9.5% below the 10-year average of 250 thousand birds.

7.2.5 Barrow’s Goldeneye

There are two populations of Barrow’s Goldeneye in Canada: Eastern and Western. The Eastern Population was listed as Special Concern under Canada’s Species at Risk Act in 2003.

Since 2002, the Eastern Population of Barrow’s Goldeneye has been surveyed by the Barrow’s Goldeneye triennial winter survey (Figure 7.1). This survey, conducted by helicopter to allow the distinction between Barrow’s and Common Goldeneye, covers the St. Lawrence Estuary and the western portion of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, where more than 90% of the Eastern Population winters (M. Robert and Savard 2006; Environment Canada 2013; Michel Robert 2013). In 2024, there were 11.6 (11.1 – 12.1) thousand Barrow’s Goldeneye in the surveyed area, which is 5.5% below the estimate from 2020, when the survey was last conducted (Figure 7.1).

Graphs of Eastern Population Barrow’s Goldeneye Winter Survey

Figure 7.1: Eastern Population Barrow’s Goldeneye Winter Survey. From 2011 onward, numbers are corrected from photos. Black line represents the population estimate, and the shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval.

Long description

This line graph shows a time series (2002 to 2023) tracking the wintering population estimate (in 1,000) for Eastern Population of Barrow’s Goldeneye from the Eastern Population Barrow’s Goldeneye Winter Survey.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 2002 to 2023. The Y-axes show the wintering population estimate, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from under 5 to 12.5.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly wintering population. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

  • From 2002 to 2023, the wintering population steadily increased from around 3,000 to nearly 12,000 individuals.

The British Columbia Plateau Breeding Waterfowl Breeding Survey best monitors the Western Population of Barrow’s Goldeneye. Though the survey does not distinguish between Common Goldeneye and Barrow’s Goldeneye, Barrow’s Goldeneye heavily dominate counts in this region. In 2025, there were 21 (15.4 – 26.7) thousand Goldeneye sp. in the British Columbia Plateau (Figure 7.6). Since 2006, the population of Goldeneye sp. has significantly decreased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly.

7.2.6 Common Eider

There are four populations of Common Eider: Pacific, Northern, Hudson Bay, and American. The Pacific and Hudson Bay Populations are not monitored regularly.

The Northern Common Eider has been monitored on its wintering grounds in eastern Canada, and Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon (France) since 2003. When this survey was last conducted in 2023, there were 121 (117 – 125) thousand male Common Eiders. This is a 29% decrease since 2018, when there were 171 (162 – 179) thousand male Common Eiders (Figure 7.2).

Graphs of estimated number of wintering adult male Northern Common Eider

Figure 7.2: Estimated number of wintering adult male Northern Common Eider. Black line represents the population estimate, and the shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval.

Long description

This line graph shows a time series (2003 to 2023) tracking the male wintering population estimate (in 1,000) for Northern Common Eider.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 2003 to 2023. The Y-axes show the male wintering population estimate, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from below 5 to 12.5.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly male wintering population. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

  • The male wintering population fluctuates between 100,000 and 175,000 individuals, but shows no visual trend between 2003 to 2023.

The American Common Eider has been monitored during the breeding season on the New Brunswick coast since 1991 and in the St. Lawrence Estuary and Gulf in Québec since 2003. Both surveys indicate long-term population declines, except in the Gulf (Figure 7.3). In New Brunswick, Common Eiders are surveyed every 3 years, and in 2017, there were 2,560 breeding pairs (Figure 7.3A). In 2025, in the 4 largest breeding colonies in the St. Lawrence Estuary in Québec, there were 11.8 thousand Common Eider nests (Figure 7.3B). In 2022, in the Gulf of St. Lawrence Migratory Bird Sanctuaries in Québec, there were 13.1 thousand Common Eider nests (Figure 7.3C).

Graphs of American Common Eider breeding populations

Figure 7.3: American Common Eider breeding populations. A) Estimated number of breeding pairs of American Common Eider in New Brunswick. B) Number of American Common Eider nests at the 4 largest breeding colonies in the St. Lawrence Estuary, Québec. C) Number of American Common Eider nests in the Gulf of St. Lawrence Migratory Bird Sanctuaries, Québec.

Long description

Figure 7.3 contains three lines graphs (A, B, C) each showing a time series (1991 to 2025) tracking American Common Eider breeding populations.

Graph A shows the estimated number of breeding pairs of American Common Eider in New Brunswick. The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1991 to 2017. The Y-axes show the number of breeding pairs, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from 2 to 10. The graph features a solid line representing the yearly number of breeding pairs.

Graph B shows the number of American Common Eider nests at the 4 largest breeding colonies in the St. Lawrence Estuary, Québec. The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 2003 to 2025. The Y-axes show the number of nests, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from below 7.5 to 17.5. The graph features a solid line representing the yearly number of nests.

Graph C shows the number of American Common Eider nests in the Gulf of St. Lawrence Migratory Bird Sanctuaries, Québec. The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1993 to 2022. The Y-axes show the number of nests, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from 6 to 14. The graph features a solid line representing the yearly number of nests.

Key patterns in these graphs:

Panel A (left):

  • The number of breeding pairs starts near 9,000 breeding pairs in 1991 and gradually decrease to roughly 3,000 pairs in 2017.

Panel B (center):

  • The number of nests begins above 15,000 nests in 2003 gradually decreases to an all time low of below 7,5000 nests in 2024.
  • The number of nests shows more variability in recent years.
  • In 2025, the number of nests was close to 12,000.

Panel C (right):

  • The number of nests starts at around 7,000 nests in 1993 and increases to near 13,000 in 2005.
  • After 2005, the number of nests remains near 13,000.

Comparative Observations:

  • Graphs A and B show pronounced declines over time for breeding pairs and one set of nest estimates, while Panel C shows an increase followed by stability.

7.2.7 King Eider

King Eider is not frequently surveyed by any current monitoring program.

7.2.8 Mergansers

Neither the WBPHS nor the BCPBWS distinguishes between the 3 species of North American mergansers (Common, Red-breasted, and Hooded Mergansers). Abundance counts of mergansers provided by the WBPHS represent all 3 species, and counts provided by the BCPBWS represent combined counts of Common and Hooded Mergansers. In eastern Canada, the EWS does provide abundance counts for each of the 3 Merganser species, given the distinction of the species is possible during the helicopter part of the survey. However, the EWS does not capture Red-breasted Mergansers well because it only covers part of their breeding range and they nest too late to be appropriately monitored by this survey.

In the core area of the EWS, the population of Common Merganser has significantly increased since 1990 and over the past 5 years (Figure 7.5). In 2025, there were 399 (322 – 476) thousand Common Mergansers in the core survey area of the EWS. This estimate is 9.1% above the 10-year average of 366 thousand birds.

In the core area of the EWS, the population of Hooded Merganser has significantly increased since 1990 and over the past 5 years (Figure 7.5). In 2025, there were 675 (506 – 844) thousand Hooded Mergansers in the core survey area of the EWS. This estimate is 69% above the 10-year average of 399 thousand birds.

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of Merganser sp. has significantly increased since 1970 (Figure 7.4). More specifically, abundance increased in Alaska, the Western Boreal Forest, and the Canadian Prairies and exhibited no significant changes in all other regions. Over the past 5 years abundance of Merganser sp. has not changed significantly across the entire survey area or in any region of the WBPHS. In 2025, there were 863 (626 – 1,100) thousand Merganser sp. in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 4% above the 10-year average of 830 thousand birds.

In the British Columbia Plateau, the population of Merganser sp. has not changed significantly since 2006 and over the past 5 years (Figure 7.6). In 2025, there were 11.3 (8.98 – 13.6) thousand birds. This is similar to the 10-year average of 11.2 thousand birds.

7.2.9 Scoters

Scoters are poorly surveyed across Canada. The BCPBWS does not distinguish among the three species of North American scoters (White-winged, Surf, and Black Scoters). The EWS does distinguish among scoter species but only covers a portion of the Surf Scoter and Black Scoter breeding range and does not cover the breeding range of the White-winged Scoter.

In the core area of the EWS, the population of Surf Scoter has not changed significantly since 1990 and over the past five years (Figure 7.5). Since 1990, there were no significant changes in any region of the EWS. There has been a significant decline in the population of Central Boreal Shield over the last 5 years. Populations in all other regions of the EWS has not changed significantly from 2021 to 2025. In 2025, there were 84.2 (21.4 – 147) thousand Surf Scoters in the core survey area of the EWS. This estimate is 20% below the 10-year average of 106 thousand birds.

In the core area of the EWS, since 1990, the population of Black Scoter has significantly increased, but over the past five years, this population has not changed significantly (Figure 7.5). In both the long term and short term, there were no changes in any region of the EWS. In 2025, there were 21.4 (0 – 50.5) thousand Black Scoters in the core survey area of the EWS. This estimate is 26% below the 10-year average of 29 thousand birds.

Graphs of Sea duck breeding population estimates based on the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in western Canada and the northwestern US

Figure 7.4: Sea duck breeding population estimates based on the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in western Canada and the northwestern US. Black lines represent population estimates in the Traditional Survey Area, shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals.

Long description

Figure 7.4 displays three individual line graphs, arranged in one row, each showing a time series (1970 to 2025) tracking abundance (in 1,000,000) for three species of sea ducks surveyed in the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1970 to 2025. The Y-axes show the abundance, measured in units of 1,000,000, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly abundance. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Some graphs also feature a horizontal dashed line representing the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP) long-term goals for that species.

Key patterns in the graph:

Left panel: Bufflehead

  • Between 1970 and 2025, overall abundance steadily increased from near 700,000 to nearly 1,400,000 individuals. In 2025, abundance was above the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line).

Middle panel: Goldeneye sp.

  • Between 1970 and 2025, overall abundance steadily increased from below 500,000 to near 800,000 individuals. Apart from a noticeable peak in the mid 1990s, with abundance near 1.2 million individuals, abundance generally fluctuated within the same range of 300,000 to 800,000 individuals.

Right panel: Merganser sp.

  • Between 1970 and 2025, overall abundance steadily increased from near 350,000 to near 850,000 individuals. Variability increased noticeably after the mid 1990s, but the general trend was still present.

Comparative Observations:

  • All three species show increasing trends over the fifty-year period, with present-day abundances higher than their starting values.
Graphs of Breeding population estimates for sea ducks in the Eastern Waterfowl Survey

Figure 7.5: Breeding population estimates for sea ducks in the Eastern Waterfowl Survey. Black lines represent population estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% credible intervals. Figure shows the combined results of helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft surveys across the core survey area for Bufflehead and Goldeneye sp. For other species, population estimates are design-based estimates from the helicopter component of this survey.

Long description

Figure 7.5 displays seven individual line graphs, arranged in three rows of three (the final row only contains one graph), each showing a time series (1990 to 2025) tracking the breeding population estimates (in 1,000) for seven species of sea ducks surveyed in the Eastern Waterfowl Survey.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1990 to 2025. A break in the timeline can be observed between 2019 and 2022 as the populations were not surveyed because population surveys were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Y-axes show the abundance, measured in units of 1,000, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate of abundance. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% credible interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

Top row (left to right):

  1. Black Scoter
    • Abundance remains low (near zero) between 1990 and the late 2000s, after which abundance increases and shows greater variability between years.
  2. Bufflehead
    • Abundance fluctuates between 5 and 80 thousand individuals, with regular peaks and troughs. Across the whole survey area, there is no trend in abundance between 1990 and 2025.
  3. Common Goldeneye
    • Abundance fluctuates between 150 and 350 thousand individuals, with regular peaks and troughs. Overall, there is no directional trend in abundance between 1990 and 2025.

Middle row (left to right):

  1. Common Merganser
    • In 1990, abundance was close to 200 thousand individuals and fluctuated near that level until the mid 2010s. In the 2020s, there was an increase to close to 400 thousand individuals. Overall, abundance increase between 1990 and 2025.
  2. Goldeneye sp.
    • Abundance fluctuates between 300 and 700 thousand individuals with outstanding peaks in the early 2000s and 2020s. Overall, there is no directional trend in abundance between 1990 and 2025.
  3. Hooded Merganser
    • From 1990 to 2019, abundance gradually increased from 100 to near 200 thousand individuals. After the break in surveys, abundance increased to close to 700 thousand individuals. Overall, abundance increase between 1990 and 2025.

Bottom left:

  1. Surf Scoter
    • Abundance fluctuates between 30 and 200 thousand individuals with greater variability in the mid 2000s. Overall, there is no directional trend in abundance between 1990 and 2025.

Comparative Observations:

  • Both Mergansers and Black Scoters showed low abundance before the mid 2010s, after which saw a noticeable increase in abundance.
  • Bufflehead, Common Goldeneye, Goldeneye sp., and Surf Scoter showed no trends in abundance.
Graphs of Total spring breeding population estimates for sea ducks in the British Columbia Plateau

Figure 7.6: Total spring breeding population estimates for sea ducks in the British Columbia Plateau. Black lines represent population estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals.

Long description

Figure 7.6 displays three individual line graphs, arranged one row, each showing a time series (2006 to 2025) tracking the breeding population estimates (in 1,000) for three species or species groups of sea ducks in the British Columbia Central Plateau.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 2006 to 2025. A break in the timeline can be observed between 2019 and 2022 as the populations were not surveyed because population surveys were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Y-axes show the abundance, measured in units of 1,000, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate of abundance. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

Left panel: Bufflehead

  • Abundance generally ranges from 45 to 55 thousand individuals. Between 2006 and 2025, abundance increased from 35 to near 50 thousand individuals. The trend fluctuates but shows an overall increase.

Middle panel: Goldeneye sp.

  • Abundance generally ranges from 20 to 30 thousand individuals and follows a slow declining trends between 2006 and 2025.

Right panel: Merganser sp.

  • Abundance ranges from about 6 to 15 thousand individuals, with yearly fluctuations. The lowest abundance was seen in 2022, but there was no overall trend between 2006 and 2025.

Comparative Observations:

  • Different abundance trends in each species or species group.

7.3 Harvest of sea ducks

Annual sea duck harvest peaked in 1977 when approximately 387 thousand sea ducks were harvested in Canada (Figure 7.7). Following declines in MGBH permit sales, harvest of Barrow’s Goldeneye, Black Scoter, Bufflehead, Common Eider, Common Goldeneye, Common Merganser, Harlequin Duck, Hooded Merganser, King Eider, Long-tailed Duck, Red-breasted Merganser, Surf Scoter, and White-winged Scoter has significantly decreased since 1976. Harvest of Black Scoter, Bufflehead, Common Eider, and Common Goldeneye has significantly decreased over the past five years. Harvest of Barrow’s Goldeneye, Common Merganser, Harlequin Duck, Hooded Merganser, King Eider, Long-tailed Duck, Red-breasted Merganser, Surf Scoter, and White-winged Scoter remained stable over this period. In 2024, there were approximately 44.7 thousand sea ducks harvested. Buffleheads comprised 26% of the sea duck harvest, followed by Common Goldeneyes (17%), Hooded Mergansers (15%), Common Eiders (9.9%), and Common Mergansers (8.5%).

Graphs of estimated harvest in Canada of sea ducks by species, from the National Harvest Survey

Figure 7.7: Estimated harvest in Canada of sea ducks by species, from the National Harvest Survey (Smith, Villeneuve, and Gendron 2022). Black lines represent harvest estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals. Harlequin Duck graph represents the harvest that is occurring in the Western Population.

Long description

Figure 7.7 displays thirteen individual line graphs, arranged in five rows of three (fifth row only has one graph), each showing a time series (1976 to 2024) tracking the estimated harvest (in 1,000) for thirteen species of sea ducks harvested in Canada.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1976 to 2024. The Y-axes show the harvest estimate, measured in units of 1,000 with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate for harvest. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

Top row (left to right):

  1. Barrow's Goldeneye
    • Harvest starts near 8,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 500 by 2024.
  2. Black Scoter
    • Harvest starts near 25,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 2,000 by 2024.
  3. Bufflehead
    • Harvest starts near 70,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 15,000 by 2024.

Second row (left to right):

  1. Common Eider
    • Harvest starts at 30,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 5,000 by 2024.
  2. Common Goldeneye
    • Harvest starts near 80,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 10,000 by 2024.
  3. Common Merganser
    • Harvest starts near 25,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 5,000 by 2024.

Third row (left to right):

  1. Harlequin Duck
    • Harvest starts near 190 in the late 1970s, peaks at 300 in 1980s and drops to almost zero from the 1990s onward.
  2. Hooded Merganser
    • Harvest starts near 40,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 7,000 by 2024.
  3. King Eider
    • Harvest starts near 200, increases to between 400 and 600 for the late 1980s and early 1990s, and slowly declines into the 2000s. By 2024, harvest is below 50.

Fourth row (left to right):

  1. Long-tailed Duck
    • Harvest starts between 10,000 and 20,000 in the 1970s and early 1980s, after which harvest declines steadily, reaching near 2,000 by 2024.
  2. Red-breasted Merganser
    • Harvest starts near 17,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching below 5,000 by 2024.
  3. Surf Scoter
    • Harvest starts near 35,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching close to 2,000 by 2024.

Bottom row (left to right):

  1. White-winged Scoter
    • Harvest starts near 15,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily, reaching close to 1,000 by 2024.

Comparative observations:

  • All species in these graphs shows a strong overall decline in harvest numbers from the late 1970s through 2024.
  • Harlequin Duck showed more drastic declines in harvest over a shorter period.
  • King Eider was the only species to show an increase in harvest amount within the time series, although harvest declined overall.

8 Geese and swans

8.1 Primary surveys for geese and swans

Most goose population estimates and trends in abundance are primarily calculated from band recovery data and harvest estimates using Lincoln methods. Some goose and swan populations are also monitored through specific annual or occasional surveys carried out during the breeding season or, in some cases, during migration or wintering periods.

8.2 Population status of geese

8.2.1 Population status of overabundant geese

An overabundant species is defined in the Migratory Birds Regulations, 2022 as one that, ‘as a result of the rate of increase of the population of that species or its overabundance, is injurious to or threatens agricultural, environmental or other similar interests’. Once a species is formally listed as overabundant, liberalization of the hunting regulations and amendments to the Migratory Birds Regulations, 2022 in Canada and the Migratory Bird Treaty Act in the US allows harvest of those species to occur outside of the normal hunting season (that is, September 1 to March 10). Greater Snow Goose was designated as overabundant in Canada in 1998 and the US in 2009. Mid-continent Lesser Snow Goose was designated as overabundant in Canada and the US in 1999. Ross’s Goose was declared overabundant in 1999 in the US, and in 2014 in Canada. The Western Arctic Population of Lesser Snow Goose was designated as overabundant in Canada in 2014. Temperate-breeding Canada Goose was designated as overabundant in southern Manitoba in 2020 following rapid population growth which led to agricultural damage and human safety concerns.

Light Goose (Lesser Snow Goose, Greater Snow Goose, and Ross’s Goose) foraging significantly alters plant communities in Arctic and Subarctic staging and nesting areas where abundance is particularly high. In these areas, foraging by geese has reduced ground cover of their preferred forage plant species and has changed the soil chemistry (Iacobelli and Jefferies 1991; Alisauskas, Charlwood, and Kellett 2006). The amount of habitat affected by foraging geese has increased as populations have grown, and there are continued concerns that expansion of the area affected by geese could eventually lead to loss of ecosystem function and significant impacts on other species. Concerns about the impact of light geese on sensitive Arctic and Subarctic ecosystems prompted managers to increase hunter harvest of some species of geese.

8.2.1.1 Lesser Snow Goose

There are three populations of Lesser Snow Goose: Mid-continent, Western Arctic, and Wrangel Island. Lesser Snow Geese nest in coastal and inland areas of the Arctic in colonies that range from a few hundred to several hundred thousand birds. For management purposes, these colonies are grouped into 3 regions: eastern, central, and western Arctic. The eastern and central Arctic colonies collectively form the Mid-continent Population of Lesser Snow Geese, which migrates through the Prairie provinces and mainly winters in the Central and Mississippi Flyways. Those nesting on Banks Island, on the Northwest Territories mainland near the Mackenzie River Delta, and on the north slope of Alaska, comprise the Western Arctic Population. These birds migrate through Alberta and western Saskatchewan and mainly winter in the Pacific Flyway. The Wrangel Island Population nests on Wrangel Island, off the northeast coast of Siberia, and winters on the Pacific Coast at the mouth of the Fraser-Skagit Rivers in British Columbia and Washington, in the Central Valley of California, and in smaller numbers in Oregon. All three populations overlap somewhat during migration and in the wintering areas.

Using the Lincoln method, we estimated that there were 5.14 (3.99 – 6.28) million adult Mid-continent Lesser Snow Geese in 2024 (Figure 8.8). Since 1976, the Mid-continent Population of Lesser Snow Goose has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly. This estimate is 13% below the 10-year average of 5.88 million geese. The Mid-continent Population peaked in 2008 at 14.6 (11.5 – 17.7) million individuals.

The size of the Western Arctic Population of Lesser Snow Geese is estimated using the Lincoln method. We estimated that there were 1.85 (1.19 – 2.51) million adult Western Arctic Lesser Snow Geese in 2024 (Figure 8.8). The Western Arctic Population of Lesser Snow Goose has not changed significantly since 1988 and over the past five years. This estimate is 26% above the 10-year average of 1.47 million birds. The Western Arctic Population peaked in 2018 at 2.06 (1.39 – 2.72) million individuals.

The Wrangel Island Population of Lesser Snow Geese are monitored through a ground survey conducted by Russian biologists during the breeding season. Since 1970, the Wrangel Island Population of Lesser Snow Goose has significantly increased, but over the past five years of the survey, this population has not changed significantly. In 2022, there were approximately 750 thousand Lesser Snow Geese on Wrangel Island (Figure 8.1). This estimate is 80% above the 10-year average of 417 thousand birds. The 2022 Wrangel Island Population of Lesser Snow Geese was above the NAWMP population objective of 120 thousand birds.

Graph of population index of Lesser Snow Geese on Wrangel Island, Russia

Figure 8.1: Population index of Lesser Snow Geese on Wrangel Island, Russia. Horizontal dashed line represents the NAWMP long-term goal for the survey area. Data were not gathered in 2012 and 2014. Source: (Olson 2022).

Long description

This line graph shows a time series (1969 to 2022) tracking the population index (in 100,000) of Lesser Snow Geese on Wrangel Island, Russia. Overall, the graph demonstrates a marked increase between 2015 and 2022 after a long period of stability.

The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1969 to 2022. The Y-axis shows the population index, measured in units of 100,000, ranging from 0 to 8.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly population index. The graph also features a horizontal dashed line representing the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP) long-term goal.

Key patterns in the graph:

  • Between 1969 and 2011, the population index was general stable between 60,000 and 150,000, but was often below the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line).
  • Between 2015 and 2022, there was sharp increase in the population index, reaching a population index of 750,000 in 2022. This is above the NAWMP long-term goal.
8.2.1.2 Greater Snow Goose

Greater Snow Geese are monitored on their spring staging areas in southern Québec and eastern Ontario. The spring survey has expanded greatly since the inaugural survey in 1965 and now covers a large territory extending from Lake Champlain (south) to Lake St. Jean (north) and from eastern Ontario (west) to Chaleur Bay (east). Since 1965, the population of Greater Snow Goose has significantly increased, but over the past five years, this population has significantly decreased (Figure 8.2). Since being designated as overabundant in 1998, the Greater Snow Goose population has fluctuated between 428 thousand and 1.01 million birds. In 2025, there were 428 (415 – 441) thousand Greater Snow Geese. The 2025 Greater Snow Goose population was below the NAWMP population objective of 500 to 750 thousand birds.

Graph of Greater Snow Goose population estimates during the spring staging period in southern Québec and eastern Ontario

Figure 8.2: Greater Snow Goose population estimates during the spring staging period in southern Québec and eastern Ontario. Shaded area represents the 95% confidence intervals. Estimates from 1998 to 2000 were corrected for flocks not observed during the survey, using data from a telemetry study. Estimates from 2002 onward are based on a revised methodology. Horizontal dashed lines represent upper and lower NAWMP goals for the survey area.

Long description

This line graph shows a time series (1965 to 2025) tracking the population (in 10,000) of Greater Snow Geese during the spring staging period in southern Québec and eastern Ontario. Overall, the graph demonstrates an initial increase between 1965 and 2000, followed by a period of stability at this high population level, and a decline after 2021.

The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1965 to 2025. The Y-axis shows the estimated population size, measured in units of 10,000, ranging from 0 to 90.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly population index. The graph also features horizontal dashed lines (upper and lower bounds) representing the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP) long-term goals.

Key patterns in the graph:

  • Between 1965 and 2000, population estimates gradually increase from below 50 to between 80 and 100 thousand individuals.
  • Population sizes remained in this range from 2000 until 2019, after which population sizes decline to near 40 thousand individuals in 2025. This is below the NAWMP long-term goal range (dashed lines).
  • Overall, the population increased between 1965 and 2025.
8.2.1.3 Ross’s Goose

Using the Lincoln method, we estimated that there were 841 (625 – 1060) thousand Ross’s Geese in 2024 (Figure 8.8). This estimate is 36% below the 10-year average of 1.32 million geese. The population peaked in 2014 at 3.88 (2.83 – 4.94) million geese. This population has not changed significantly since 1990 and over the past 5 years.

A single colony of Ross’s Goose has been monitored at Karrak Lake in the Queen Maud Gulf (Ahiak) Bird Sanctuary, Nunavut since 1993. Since 1993, the size of this colony has not changed significantly, but over the past 5 years of the survey, it has significantly decreased. In 2019, there were 233 (212 – 254) thousand Ross’s Geese nesting at Karrak Lake (Figure 8.3). This estimate is 60% below the 10-year average of 583 thousand birds.

Graph of estimated numbers of Ross’s Geese that attempted to nest at Karrak Lake, Nunavut, 1993 to 2019

Figure 8.3: Estimated numbers of Ross’s Geese that attempted to nest at Karrak Lake, Nunavut, 1993 to 2019. Black line represents the population estimate, and shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval.

Long description

This line graph shows a time series (1993 to 2019) tracking the population (in 1,000) of Ross’s Geese that attempted to nest at Karrak Lake, Nunavut. Overall, the graph demonstrates a gradual increase between 1993 and 2012, followed by decline until 2019.

The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1993 to 2019. The Y-axis shows the estimated population size, measured in units of 1,000, ranging from 150 to just below 1,000.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly population index. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

  • Between 1993 and 2012, population estimates gradually increase from 250,000 to over 900,000.
  • After 2012, population estimates sharply decline to 250,000 in 2019.

8.2.2 Population status of other geese and swans

8.2.2.1 Canada Goose

Canada geese are divided into Subarctic breeding populations and temperate breeding populations.

8.2.2.1.1 Subarctic Canada Geese

There are 3 populations of Subarctic breeding Canada Geese: the North Atlantic, Atlantic, and Southern Hudson Bay Populations.

The North Atlantic population breeds in Labrador, insular Newfoundland, eastern Québec, and western Greenland, and winters primarily in southern Atlantic Canada and New England. The North Atlantic Population is monitored by the EWS in Canada. The North Atlantic Population of Canada Goose has not changed significantly since 1990 and over the past 5 years. There were 57.4 (41.9 – 80.3) thousand Canada Goose breeding pairs in 2025 (Figure 8.4). This estimate is 9.2% above the 10-year average of 52.6 thousand breeding pairs.

Graph of estimated number of breeding pairs in the North Atlantic Canada Goose Population

Figure 8.4: Estimated number of breeding pairs in the North Atlantic Canada Goose Population based on integrated fixed-wing airplane and helicopter counts from the EWS.

Long description

This line graph shows a time series (1990 to 2025) tracking the breeding pairs (in 1,000) of North Atlantic Canada Geese surveyed in the Eastern Waterfowl Survey. Overall, the graph demonstrates no significant changes across the time series, apart from yearly variation.  

The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1990 to 2022. The Y-axis shows the breeding pairs, measured in units of 1,000, ranging from 20 to 80 thousand individuals.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly population index. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

  • The number of breeding pairs fluctuates between 40 and 60 thousand individuals across the time series, with no directional trends between 1990 and 2025.

The Atlantic Population nests in northern Québec, especially along the shores of Ungava Bay and eastern Hudson Bay (where 80% of breeding birds are found), and in the interior of the Ungava Peninsula. The Atlantic Population winters from New England to South Carolina, with the largest concentration occurring on the Delmarva Peninsula. The Atlantic Population has been monitored on their breeding grounds since 1993. The survey covers the flat coastal tundra of Ungava Bay and Hudson Bay and associated taiga and inland tundra, the areas of highest densities (Malecki and Trost 1990; Rodrigue 2013; Harvey, Rodrigue, and Earsom 2019). The southern part of the Atlantic Population range is monitored through the EWS in the Québec boreal forest.

On the Ungava peninsula, since 1990, the Atlantic Population of Canada Goose has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly. There were 150 (119 – 181) thousand Canada Goose breeding pairs in 2025 (Figure 8.5A). This estimate is 8.7% above the 10-year average of 138 thousand breeding pairs. The Atlantic Population in Ungava was below the NAWMP objective of 225,000 breeding pairs. In the Quebec boreal forest, the Atlantic Population of Canada Goose has not changed significantly since 1990 and over the past five years. There were 16 (9.65 – 22.3) thousand breeding pairs in 2025 (Figure 8.5B). This estimate is 18% above the 10-year average of 13.6 thousand breeding pairs.

Graphs of estimated number of Atlantic Population Canada Goose breeding pairs

Figure 8.5: A) Estimated number of Atlantic Population Canada Goose breeding pairs on the Ungava Peninsula, Québec. B) Estimated number of Atlantic Population Canada Goose breeding pairs in the boreal forest in Québec based on the EWS (helicopter portion of the survey only). Black lines represent breeding pair estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals. Horizontal dashed line represents NAWMP goal for the survey area.

Long description

Figure 8.5 displays two individual line graphs, arranged one row (A – left and B – right), each showing a time series (1990 to 2025) tracking the breeding pair estimates (in 100,000 and 1,000, respectively) for Atlantic Population Canada Geese.

Graph A shows the estimated number of Atlantic Population Canada Goose breeding pairs on the Ungava Peninsula, Québec. The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1993 to 2025. The Y-axes show the number of breeding pairs, measured in units of 100,000, with values ranging from 0.3 to over 2. The graph also features a horizontal dashed line representing the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (NAWMP) long-term goal.

Graph B shows the estimated number of Atlantic Population Canada Goose breeding pairs in the boreal forest in Québec based on the Eastern Waterfowl Survey. The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1990 to 2025. The Y-axes show the number breeding pairs, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from 0 to 30.

The graphs feature a solid line representing the yearly estimate of breeding pairs. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in these graphs:

Graph A (left):

  • From 1990 to the mid 2000s, estimated breeding pairs increases from below 100,000 to nearing 200,000.
  • The number of breeding pairs remained at this level, fluctuating between 180,000 and 210,000 until 2017.
  • Between 2017 and 2025, the number of breeding pairs dropped slightly, to between 100,000 and 150,000.
  • Throughout the time series, the number of breeding pairs is always below the NAWMP long-term goal (dashed line).

Graph B (right):

  • The number of breeding pairs fluctuates between 10,000 and 25,000 breeding pairs throughout the time series.
  • Overall, there is no direction change in the number of breeding pairs between 1990 and 2025, although there are yearly variations.

The Southern Hudson Bay Population nests along western and southern James Bay, southern Hudson Bay, and in adjacent interior lowland muskeg of Ontario and Manitoba, and winters in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyway. This population is monitored through an aerial survey conducted by Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. In 2025, there were 65 (59.1 – 70.8) thousand Canada Geese in the Southern Hudson Bay Population (Figure 8.6). This estimate is 26% below the 10-year average of 88.1 thousand geese.

Graph of abundance of Southern Hudson Bay Population of Canada Geese surveyed by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources

Figure 8.6: Abundance of Southern Hudson Bay Population of Canada Geese surveyed by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. Black line represents the population estimate, and shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval.

Long description

This line graph shows a time series (2016 to 2025) tracking the estimate population size (in 1,000) of the Southern Hudson Bay Population of Canada Geese, as surveyed by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. Overall, the graph demonstrates a relatively stable estimate, with a slight decrease in the most recent year.

The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 2016 to 2025. The Y-axis shows the estimated population size, measured in units of 1,000, ranging from 60 to 110.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly population index. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

  • The estimated population starts at around 85,000 in 2016 and increases to 100,000 in 2017/2018.
  • Between 2019 and 2024, the population was relatively stable, fluctuating 85,000.
  • In 2025, the population estimate decreased to 65,000.
8.2.2.1.2 Temperate Canada Geese

Temperate-breeding Canada Geese breed in central and southern Ontario, southern Québec, the Maritimes, southern areas of Prairie provinces, and British Columbia.

In southern Québec, temperate Canada Geese are monitored by the EWS and the St. Lawrence Lowlands Breeding Waterfowl Survey, a helicopter plot survey. Since 2004, this population has significantly increased, but over the past five years, this population has not changed significantly. Combining numbers obtained through these surveys, there were 22.4 (14.5 – 30.3) thousand breeding pairs of temperate Canada Geese in Québec in 2025 (Figure 8.7A). This estimate is 29% above the 10-year average of 17.4 thousand breeding pairs.

In southern Ontario, temperate Canada Geese are monitored by the SOWPS. Since 1971, this population has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly. In 2025, there were 60.3 (47.8 – 75.3) thousand breeding pairs of Canada Geese in southern Ontario (Figure 8.7B). This estimate is 9.5% above the 10-year average of 55 thousand breeding pairs.

Temperate Canada Geese nesting in the Prairie Parklands are monitored by the WBPHS in strata 26 to 40. Since 1970, this population has significantly increased, but over the past five years, this population has significantly decreased. In 2025, there were 893 (774 – 1010) thousand Canada Geese in the Prairie Parklands (Figure 8.7C). This estimate is 20% below the 10-year average of 1.11 million geese.

Temperate Canada Geese nesting in southern British Columbia are monitored by the BCPBWS. This population has not changed significantly since 2006 and over the past five years. In 2025, there were 28.9 (23.6 – 34.2) thousand breeding pairs of Canada Geese on the British Columbia Plateau (Figure 8.7D). This estimate is 4.6% below the 10-year average of 30.3 thousand breeding pairs.

Graphs of Temperate-breeding Canada Geese

Figure 8.7: Temperate-breeding Canada Geese. A) estimated breeding pairs in southern Québec based on the St. Lawrence Lowlands Survey and the EWS, B) estimated breeding pairs in southern Ontario based on the SOWPS, C) estimated population in strata 26 to 40 of the WBPHS, and D) estimated population in the British Columbia Plateau based on the BCPBWS. Black lines represent breeding pair (A, B) or population (C, D) estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals.

Long description

Figure 8.7 displays four individual line graphs, arranged two rows of two (A – top left, B – top right, C – bottom left, D – bottom right), each showing separate time series tracking the breeding pair estimates (A and B; in 1,000) and estimated population sizes (C and D; in 100,000 and 1,000 respectively) for temperate-breeding Canada Geese.

Graph A shows the estimated number of temperate-breeding Canada Goose breeding pairs in southern Québec based on the St. Lawrence Lowlands Survey and the Eastern Waterfowl Survey. The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 2004 to 2025. The Y-axes show the number of breeding pairs, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from 0 to 30.7

Graph B shows the estimated number of temperate-breeding Canada Goose breeding pairs in southern Ontario based on the Southern Ontario Waterfowl Plot Survey. The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1971 to 2025. The Y-axes show the number of breeding pairs, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from 0 to 60.

Graph C shows the estimated Canada Goose population in strata 26 to 40 of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey. The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1955 to 2025. The Y-axes show the estimated population size, measured in units of 100,000, with values ranging from 0 to 15.

Graph D shows the estimated Canada Goose population in the British Columbia Plateau based on the British Columbia Plateau Breeding Waterfowl Survey. The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1955 to 2025. The Y-axes show the estimated population size, measured in units of 100,000, with values ranging from 0 to 15.

Key patterns in the graph:

Graph A (top left):

  • Between 2004 and 2025, breeding pairs steadily increase from close to 5,000 to over 20,000.

Graph B (top right):

  • Between 1971 and 2025, breeding pairs steadily increase from close to 1,000 to over 60,000.

Graph C (bottom left):

  • Between 1955 and 2025, breeding pairs steadily increase from close to 0 to over 1.2 million, although estimates were lower in 2024 and 2025.

Panel D (bottom right):

  • The population estimates between 2006 and 2025 fluctuate between 20,000 and 45,000, with peaks in 2007 and 2016/2017. Overall, the population did not change significantly between 2006 and 2025.

Comparative Observations:

  • Temperate-breeding Canada Geese populations in Quebec, southern Ontario, and the Prairie Parklands showed overall increases, but populations in British Columbia did not.
  • In both southern Ontario and the Prairie Parklands, Canada Geese populations were close to 0 at the onset of the survey and both show similar trajectories.
8.2.2.2 Cackling Goose

Using the Lincoln method, we estimated that there were 893 (626 – 1160) thousand Cackling Geese in 2024 (Figure 8.8). This estimate is 14% below the 10-year average of 1.04 million geese. The population peaked in 2010 at 2.07 (1.29 – 2.85) million geese. Since 1976, this population has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly.

8.2.2.3 Greater White-fronted Goose

There are 3 populations of Greater White-fronted Goose: the Mid-continent, Tule, and Pacific Populations. The Tule and Pacific Populations breed in southern Alaska and winter primarily in California. These populations are not discussed in this report. The Mid-continent Population includes all White-fronted Geese that breed in Canada and in interior and northern Alaska, and that winter in the Central and Mississippi Flyways of the US.

Using the Lincoln method, we estimated that there were 2.92 (2.07 – 3.76) million Greater White-fronted Geese in the Mid-continent Population in 2024 (Figure 8.8). This estimate is 14% above the 10-year average of 2.55 million geese. The Mid-continent Population peaked in 2014 at 3.77 (2.74 – 4.81) million geese. Since 1976, this population has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly.

The Midwinter Survey provides an abundance index for Greater White-fronted Goose. This survey indicates that there were 925 thousand Greater White-fronted Geese in 2023. This estimate is 66% above the 10-year average of 558 thousand birds.

8.2.2.4 Brant

There are 4 distinct populations of Brant recognized in North America: the Atlantic, Eastern High Arctic, Black, and Western High Arctic Populations. The Atlantic Brant Population nests on islands in the Canadian eastern Low Arctic and winters on the Atlantic Coast from Massachusetts to North Carolina. The Eastern High Arctic Population breeds on islands in Canada’s eastern High Arctic, and winters in Ireland; this population is not surveyed in Canada. Black Brant nest in the central and western Canadian Low Arctic, Alaska, and western Russia, and winters along the Pacific Coast. Western High Arctic Brant nest on islands in the western High Arctic and winter mainly in Puget Sound, Washington.

Using the Lincoln method, we estimated that there were 87.6 (50.1 – 125) thousand Atlantic Brant in 2024 (Figure 8.8). This estimate is 29% below the 10-year average of 124 thousand geese. The Atlantic Population peaked in 2009 at 520 (337 – 703) thousand geese. This population has not changed significantly since 1980 and over the past 5 years.

Black and Western High Arctic Brant are surveyed annually during the Midwinter Survey in the Pacific. During aerial surveys, it is difficult to separate the 2 populations of Brant that winter on the west coast of North America. However, the Midwinter Survey indicates that there were 108 thousand Brant in 2024. This estimate is 23% below the 10-year average of 141 thousand birds. The Midwinter Survey indicates that the Brant population size peaked in 2012 at 177 thousand birds. An increasing proportion of these populations overwinter north of the areas surveyed, so the observed declines may be in part due to a redistribution of birds in winter.

8.2.2.5 Tundra Swan

Tundra swans are widely distributed across North America and divided into two sub-populations for management purposes. The Western and Eastern Populations have relatively distinct breeding, migration and wintering areas. The Western Population breeding range is limited to western Alaska and is separated from the western extent of the Eastern Population’s breeding range by the Brooks mountain range. The Western Population of Tundra Swans migrate south using two primary routes. Most of the Western Population migrate along an interior route with an important staging stopover in southern Alberta. The remaining Western Population Tundra Swans migrate south using a more western route along the Pacific coast. The Eastern Population’s breeding range extends across the Nearctic and sub-arctic regions of Canada, including northern Ontario, Manitoba and the North slope of Alaska. The population migrates south and eastward towards the lower Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic coastal region of the US, where it winters in a relatively small range.

The primary surveys used to monitor the Western Population Tundra Swan are the WBPHS and the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Coastal Zone Survey. The population is also monitored by the Pacific Flyway Winter Tundra Swan Survey. This survey indicates that there were 72.9 thousand swans in 2025, which is a slight decline from 72.4 thousand in 2024. In 2025 the Western Population Tundra Swan was above the NAWMP population objective of 60,000 birds.

The Midwinter Survey provides an abundance index for the Eastern Population Tundra Swan, within its wintering range. This survey indicates that there were 77.2 thousand Tundra Swans in 2025. This estimate is 21% below the 10-year average of 97.8 thousand birds. In 2025 the Eastern Population Tundra Swan was below the NAWMP population objective of 80,000 birds.

8.2.2.6 Trumpeter Swan

There are no recent surveys for Trumpeter Swan.

Graphs of Lincoln estimates of population size for adult geese

Figure 8.8: Lincoln estimates of population size for adult geese. Black lines represent population estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals. Source: (J. Dooley, USFWS, unpubl. data).

Long description

Figure 8.8 displays six individual line graphs, arranged two rows of three, each showing a time series (1976 to 2024) tracking the Lincoln estimates of population size (100,000) for six species or populations of geese.

The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1976 to 2024. The Y-axis shows the estimated population size, measured in units of 1,000, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly population index. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

Top row (left to right):

  1. Atlantic Brant
    • Lincoln estimates of population size are not available for the full time series before 2000, but the available estimates generally fluctuate within the same range as the full time series (100,000 to 400,000). There is a noticeable peak of 500,000 in 2009, after which there is a population decline to just below 100,000 in 2025.
  2. Cackling Goose
    • Overall, Lincoln estimates of population size increased between 1976 and 2024. Yearly fluctuations were present, but there was an overall upward trajectory particularly between 1976 and 2010. After 2010, population estimates declines slightly to 800,000 but were still higher than in 1976 (200,000).
  3. Greater White-fronted Goose
    • Overall, Lincoln estimates of population size increased from 400,000 to 3 million between 1976 and 2024. Yearly fluctuations were present, but there was an overall upward trajectory across the entire time series.

Bottom row (left to right):

  1. Lesser Snow Goose – Mid-Continent
    • Between 1976 and the mid 2000s, Lincoln estimates of population size increased steadily from 1.5 million to 14 million. After 2010, population estimates declines slightly to 5 million but were still higher than in 1976. Overall, Lincoln estimates of population size increased between 1976 and 2024.
  2. Lesser Snow Goose – Western Arctic
    • Lincoln estimates of population size were particularly sparse for this population, but the available estimates follow a loose upward trajectory from a population size of 200,000 in 1988 to nearly 2 million in 2024.
  3. Ross’s Goose
    • Between 1990 and the early 2010s, Lincoln estimates of population size increased from 200,000 to almost 4 million. After this peak, population estimates declined to 800,000 in 2024.

Comparative Observations:

  • Both populations of Lesser Snow Geese, Ross’s Goose, Greater White-fronted Goose, and Cackling Goose show an overall increase in population.
  • All species and populations showed high yearly variation in population estimates.
Graphs of Midwinter population indices for geese and swans

Figure 8.9: Midwinter population indices for geese and swans surveyed by the Midwinter Waterfowl Survey.

Long description

Figure 8.9 displays three individual side-by-side line graphs each showing a time series (1970 to 2025) tracking the Midwinter population indices (in 1,000) for three species or populations of waterfowl: Black and Western High Arctic Brant, Greater White-fronted Goose, and Tundra Swan.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1970 to 2025. The Y-axes show the Midwinter population indices, measured in units of 1,000, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the population indices.

Key patterns in the graph:

Left to right:

  • Black and Western High Arctic Brant
    • Begins in 1992, with a population index of close to 120,000. Indices fluctuate between 100,000 and 180,000, with several periods of consistent high (2010s) or low (mid 2000s and 2023 / 2024) estimates.
  • Greater White-fronted Goose
    • The graph starts around 50,000 in 1970. Between 1970 and 2023, indices increase slowly at first, but the trend accelerates in the 2000s, reaching a peak value of 900,000 in 2023.
  • Tundra Swan
    • Between 1983 and 2025, population indices fluctuate between 60,000 to 14,000, with increasing variability over time. In 1983, population indices were close to 80,000.

Comparative Observations:

  • There are no consistent overall trends between species. Each species shows a unique pattern in population indices.
  • Estimates for Black and Western High Arctic Brant and Tundra Swan have been highly variable in recent years.

8.3 Harvest of geese and swans

Goose harvest has not declined following declines in MGBH permit sales, and has instead increased since the late 1990s. Harvest of Atlantic Brant has significantly decreased since 1976. Harvest of Cackling Goose, Canada Goose, Greater White-fronted Goose, Ross’s Goose, and Snow Goose has significantly increased. Harvest of Cackling Goose, Canada Goose, Greater White-fronted Goose, Ross’s Goose, and Snow Goose has significantly increased over the past five years. Harvest of Atlantic Brant remained stable over this period. In 2024, there were 880 thousand geese harvested in Canada. Canada Geese comprised 63% of the harvest, followed by Snow Geese (15%), Cackling Geese (9.9%), Greater White-fronted Geese (9.1%), and Ross’s Geese (2.9%). There are currently no open season for swans in Canada, though there are hunting seasons in several Central and Atlantic Flyway states in the US.

Graphs of estimated harvest in Canada of geese by species

Figure 8.10: Estimated harvest in Canada of geese by species, from the National Harvest Survey (Smith, Villeneuve, and Gendron 2022). Black lines represent harvest estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals.

Long description

Figure 8.10 displays six individual line graphs, arranged in two rows of three, each showing a time series (1976 to 2024) tracking the estimated harvest (in 10,000) for six species of geese harvested in Canada.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1976 to 2024. The Y-axes show the harvest estimate, measured in units of 10,000, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate for harvest. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

Top row (left to right):

  1. Atlantic Brant
    • Harvest starts near 100 in the late 1970s and remains low (< 500) overall throughout the time series, with some localize peaks in harvest. Specifically in 1980, harvest peaked at 1,600. 
  2. Cackling Goose
    • Harvest starts near 70,000 in the late 1970s and fluctuates yearly between 60,000 and 11,000. Between 1976 and 2024, harvest slightly increased from 70,000 to 90,000.
  3. Canada Goose
    • Harvest starts near 250,000 in the late 1970s and increases steadily until the 2010s when it peaks at 700,000. Harvest declines to 500,000 between 2019 and 2020 but is still greater than the harvest in the 1970s.

Bottom row (left to right):

  1. Greater White-fronted Goose
    • Harvest starts just above 60,000 in the 1970s and generally fluctuates between 50,000 and 80,000. In the 1990s and 2020, harvest declines slightly below this range. In 2000m harvest slightly exceeds this range. Overall, there is a slight increase between 1976 and 2024.
  2. Ross's Goose
    • Harvest starts near 5,000 in the late 1970s and remains at this low level until 1995. Between 1995 and the mid 2010s, harvest increases to almost 40,000 before declining slightly to 30,000 in 2024.
  3. Snow Goose
    • Harvest starts near 10,000 in the late 1970s and fluctuates between 10,000 and 17,000 until 1997. After 1997, harvest increased slightly on average and fluctuates between 14,000 and 23,000 until 2015. From 2015 to 2024, harvest lowers back to roughly 13,000 with a significant low point of 60,000 in 2020.

Comparative Observations:

  • Atlantic Brant was the only species to show very little change in harvest over the time series.
  • Harvest in Canada Goose and Ross’s Goose increased the most, but there were marginal increases in Cackling Goose, Greater White-fronted Goose, and Snow Goose.

9 Other harvested species

9.1 Primary surveys for other harvested species

There is no unifying survey used to monitor populations of other harvested migratory game birds across Canada, although American Coot are surveyed in the WBPHS. Instead, many of these species have species-specific monitoring strategies or are monitored only at localized sites. Species-specific surveys are described in this report along with their results.

Mourning Dove, Band-tailed Pigeon, Wilson’s Snipe, rails and are monitored by the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). The BBS is an international avian survey conducted annually since 1966 in the US and Canada. It is designed to monitor trends in the relative abundance of North American breeding birds at the continental, national, and regional levels, and primarily focuses on landbirds.

Virginia Rail, Sora, and Common Gallinule are monitored by the Great Lakes Marsh Monitoring Program (GLMMP). The GLMMP is a bi-national, long-term monitoring program that has coordinated citizen scientists throughout the Great Lakes basin of Ontario and the US since 1995. The program is designed to collect information about the presence and abundance of bird and amphibian species in Great Lakes coastal and inland marshes.

Mid-continent Sandhill Cranes are monitored primarily by the Mid-continent Sandhill Crane Survey, a spring aerial transect survey in key staging areas in Nebraska, US. More than 90% of the Mid-continent Population is found in that area when this survey occurs (Dubovsky 2019). In the East, Sandhill Cranes are monitored in their fall staging grounds in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyway and by the EWS on their breeding ground in Quebec.

American Woodcock is monitored in North America using indices from the American Woodcock Singing-Ground Survey, which consists of a spring count of male courtship displays at dusk (Seamans et al. 2019). The survey covers the central and northern portions of the American Woodcock breeding range.

9.2 Population status of other harvested species

9.2.1 Mourning Dove

Mourning Dove is monitored through the BBS (Figure 9.4). Across the Canadian range, Mourning Dove has significantly increased in the short term (2013 to 2023) and long-term (1970 to 2023). Since 1970, populations in Alberta, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Ontario, Québec, and Saskatchewan have significantly increased, populations in British Columbia have significantly decreased, and populations in Manitoba have experienced little change. In the short term, populations in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan have significantly increased, populations in Québec have significantly decreased, and populations in New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Ontario have remained stable.

9.2.2 Band-tailed Pigeon

Band-tailed Pigeon is monitored through the BBS (Figure 9.4). In Canada, Band-tailed Pigeon is found only in British Columbia. Since 1970, populations in British Columbia have significantly decreased. In the short term, populations in British Columbia have remained stable.

9.2.3 Sandhill Crane

There are 3 Sandhill Crane populations in Canada: Central Valley, Mid-continent, and Eastern. The Central Valley population primarily breeds in California, but its range extends into the lower Fraser Valley and northern Vancouver Island in British Columbia. There are no surveys to monitor the Canadian portion of this population.

The Mid-continent Population breeds across Canada from eastern British Columbia to northern Ontario, south from the Prairies and north to Siberia, Alaska, the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut. Since 1982, this population has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly. The photo corrected population index in 2025 was 1.44 million Sandhill Cranes, which was 200% greater than in 2024, and the photo-corrected three-year average (2023 to 2025) was 1.06 million birds (Figure 9.1A). This estimate is 66% above the 10-year average of 870 thousand cranes.

The Eastern Population of Sandhill Crane breeds from eastern and central Ontario to Labrador and south to the lower Great Lakes. Since 1979, this population has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly. In 2024, there were 91.5 thousand Eastern Sandhill Cranes (Figure 9.1B). This is similar to the 10-year average of 91.6 thousand birds.

In Québec, the EWS monitors a large breeding area of Eastern Population of Sandhill Cranes. Since 1990, this population has significantly increased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly. In 2025, there were 13.9 (8.62 – 19.2) thousand Sandhill Crane breeding pairs in this region (Figure 9.1C). This estimate is 62% above the 10-year average of 8.6 thousand breeding pairs.

Graphs of Sandhill Crane populations

Figure 9.1: Sandhill Crane populations. A) Spring population indices for Mid-continent Sandhill Cranes on their spring staging areas (that is, Central Platte River Valley, Nebraska, and adjacent areas) (Garrettson and Seamans 2025). B) Fall population indices for Eastern Sandhill Cranes on their fall staging areas (Garrettson and Seamans 2025). C) Breeding pairs in Québec based on the EWS (estimates based on helicopter plot survey only). In panels A and B, black lines represent population indices. In panel C, black line represents breeding pair estimate, and shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval.

Long description

Figure 9.1 displays three individual line graphs, arranged one row (A – left, B – center, C – right), each showing a time series (1979 to 2025) tracking the population indices (A and B; in 100,000 and 1,000) and breeding pairs (C; in 1,000) and 1,000, respectively) for Sandhill Cranes.

Graph A shows the spring population indices for Mid-continent Sandhill Cranes on their spring staging areas. The X-axis represents the years, ranging from 1982 to 2025. The Y-axes show the population index, measured in units of 100,000, with values ranging from less than 5 to 15.

Graph B shows the Fall population indices for Eastern Sandhill Cranes on their fall staging areas. The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1979 to 2024. The Y-axes show the population index, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from less than 30 to over 90.

Graph C shows the breeding pairs in Québec based on the Eastern Waterfowl Survey. The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1990 to 2025. The Y-axes show the breeding pairs, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from 0 to 20.

The graphs feature a solid line representing the yearly estimate of the population index or the numbers of breeding pairs. In Graph C, the line is surrounded by a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in these graphs:

Graph A (left):

  • Between 1982 and the mid 2000s, the population indices remained between 300,00 and 500,000. After 2010, indices increased overall, with greater variability between years as the indices increased. Overall, population indices increased from 400,000 in 1982 to 1.4 million in 2025.

Graph B (middle):

  • Beginning in 1979, at a population index of 15,000, population indices gradually increased to a high of 110,000 by 2023.

Graph C (right):

  • Between 1990 and 2002, the number of breeding pairs was generally below 1,000. After 2002, the number of breeding pairs showed a steady increase to a high of 2,700 in 2025.

Comparative Observations:

  • All three Graphs show strong, consistent long-term increases in Sandhill Crane population on their staging areas or their breeding grounds

9.2.4 Virginia Rail

Virginia Rail is monitored through the BBS (Figure 9.4). Across the Canadian range, Virginia Rail has not changed significantly in the short term (2013 to 2023) but has significantly increased in the long term (1970 to 2023). Since 1970, populations in British Columbia have significantly increased and populations in Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec, and Saskatchewan have experienced little change. In the short term, populations in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec, and Saskatchewan have remained stable.

In Ontario, the GLMMP indicates that there was a density of 0.251 (0.212 – 0.297) Virginia Rail per monitoring station in 2024. This estimate is 23% below the 10-year average of 0.326 birds per station. The population of Virginia Rail has significantly decreased since 1995 and over the past 5 years (Figure 9.5).

9.2.5 Sora

Sora is monitored through the BBS (Figure 9.4). Across the Canadian range, Sora has not changed significantly in the short term (2013 to 2023) and long term (1970 to 2023). Since 1970, populations in New Brunswick have significantly increased and populations in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Northwest Territories, Ontario, Québec, Saskatchewan, and the Yukon have experienced little change. In the short term, populations in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Northwest Territories, Ontario, Québec, Saskatchewan, and the Yukon have remained stable.

In Ontario, the GLMMP indicates that there was a density of 0.134 (0.102 – 0.176) Sora per monitoring station in 2024. This estimate is 16% above the 10-year average of 0.116 birds per station. The population of Sora has not changed significantly since 1995 and over the past five years (Figure 9.5).

9.2.6 Common Gallinule

In Ontario, the GLMMP indicates that there was a density of 0.188 (0.147 – 0.24) Common Gallinule per monitoring station in 2024. This estimate is 6.4% above the 10-year average of 0.176 birds per station. Since 1995, the population of Common Gallinule has significantly decreased, but over the past 5 years, this population has not changed significantly (Figure 9.5).

9.2.7 American Coot

In the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS, the abundance of American Coot has not changed significantly since 1970 or over the past 5 years (Figure 9.2). In all regions of the WBPHS, populations did not show any short-term or long-term changes in abundance. In 2025, there were 1.12 (0.876 – 1.37) million American Coots in the Traditional Survey Area of the WBPHS. This estimate is 29% below the 10-year average of 1.59 million birds.

Graph of American Coot breeding population

Figure 9.2: American Coot breeding population estimates based on the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in Western Canada and the Northwestern US. Black line represents population estimate in the Traditional Survey Area, and shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval.

Long description

This line graph shows a time series (1970 to 2025) tracking the breeding population estimates (in 1,000) for American Coot surveyed in the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1970 to 2025. A break in the timeline can be observed between 2019 and 2022 as the populations were not surveyed because population surveys were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Y-axes show the abundance, measured in units of 1,000, with values ranging from 1,000 to 5,000.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate of abundance. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in this graph:

  • In the early 1970s, abundance is around 1,000,000.
  • Abundance fluctuates between 1,000,000 and 5,000,000 in multi-year cycles, although variation is more frequent in the 1980s and early 1990s.

9.2.8 American Woodcock

In Canada and in the U.S., American Woodcock are currently managed based on two regions: the Eastern Management Region and the Central Management Region. American Woodcock breeding in Manitoba and Ontario belong to the Central Management Region, while those breeding in Québec and the Maritimes are part of the Eastern Management Region. Since the inception of the survey, there have been significant long-term declines in all provinces, except Manitoba and Nova Scotia where there were no significant changes (Figure 9.3). In the last 5 years, there were significant increases in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Graphs of American Woodcock breeding population

Figure 9.3: American Woodcock breeding population indices by province based on the American Woodcock Singing Ground Survey. Black lines represent population estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals. Source: (Seamans and Rau 2019).

Long description

Figure 9.3 displays six individual line graphs, arranged in two rows of three, each showing a time series (1969 to 2025) tracking the population indices for American Woodcock in six Canadian provinces.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1969 to 2025. The Y-axes show the population index, ranging from below 5 to above 10.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly population indices. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in the graph:

Top row (left to right):

  1. Manitoba
    • Indices begin at close to 7 in 1990, decrease to 5 in the mid 1990s and remain overall stable until 2025. No strong trend.
  2. New Brunswick
    • Indices start around 10 in 1969 and drop steadily to below 5 in the mid 1980s. After this, the indices fluctuate between 5 and 7.5 until the end of the time series. Overall, indices follow an initial decrease followed by a period of stabilization.
  3. Nova Scotia
    • Indices remain close to 5 throughout the entire time series, with no directional trend.

Bottom row (left to right):

  1. Ontario
    • Indices start around 8 in 1969 and follow a stepwise decline to below 5 in 2025.
  2. Prince Edward Island
    • Indices start around 5 in 1969, generally fluctuating between 5.5 and 3 throughout the time series. Overall, there is a slight decrease as the indices end at 4 in 2025.
  3. Quebec
    • Indices start around 5, slightly increase to almost 7 in 1990 and then decrease to nearly 4 in 2025. Overall, there is a slight decrease between 1969 and 2025.

Comparative Observations:

  • Most pronounced declines in the population indices are seen in Ontario, but also in New Brunswick in the initial years of the survey.  

9.2.9 Wilson’s Snipe

Wilson’s Snipe is monitored through the BBS (Figure 9.4). Across the Canadian range, Wilson’s Snipe has not changed significantly in the short term (2013 to 2023) and long term (1970 to 2023). Since 1970, populations in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan have significantly increased, populations in New Brunswick and Québec have significantly decreased, and populations in British Columbia, Newfoundland and Labrador, Northwest Territories, Ontario, and the Yukon have experienced little change. In the short term, populations in Newfoundland and Labrador have significantly decreased and populations in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Northwest Territories, Ontario, Québec, Saskatchewan, and the Yukon have remained stable.

9.2.10 Common Murre

Common Murre is not frequently surveyed by any current monitoring program.

9.2.11 Thick-billed Murre

Thick-billed Murre is not frequently surveyed by any current monitoring program.

Graphs of Canada-wide population indices for Mourning Dove, Band-tailed Pigeon, Virginia Rail, Sora, and Wilson’s Snipe

Figure 9.4: Canada-wide population indices for Mourning Dove, Band-tailed Pigeon, Virginia Rail, Sora, and Wilson’s Snipe based on the Breeding Bird Survey. Black lines represent population indices, and shaded areas represent 95% credible intervals.

Long description

Figure 9.4 displays five individual line graphs, arranged in two rows of three (bottom row only has 2), each showing a time series (1970 to 2023) tracking the population indices for Mourning Dove, Band-tailed Pigeon, Virginia Rail, Sora, and Wilson’s Snipe based on the Breeding Bird Survey.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1970 to 2025. The Y-axes show the population index, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly population index. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% credible interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in these graphs:

Top row (left to right):

  1. Mourning Dove
    • The population index rises steadily from about 2 in 1970 to just below 5 in 2023, marking a clear, long-term increase.
  2. Band-tailed Pigeon
    • The population index starts around 12 in 1970, drops steadily to roughly 3 around 1990 and remains at this low level but continues to slowly decrease to nearly 1.5 in 2023.
  3. Virginia Rail
    • The population index starts slightly above 0.01 in 1970. In the 1980s, population indices decrease marginally before increasing to above 0.02 by 2023.

Bottom row (left to right):

  1. Sora
    • The population index starts slightly above 1 in 1970. Between 1970 and 2023, population indices fluctuate between 1 to 2 but show no directional change over this period.
  2. Wilson's Snipe
    • The population index starts slightly above 4 in 1970. Between 1970 and 2023, population indices fluctuate between 4 to 6, with short-term high and low periods, but no overall directional change.

Comparative Observations:

  • Mourning Dove and Virginia Rail, both showing marked long-term increases.
  • Band-tailed Pigeon, showed a pronounced decline early and persistent low index.
  • Wilson’s Snipe and Sora showed no directional overall change across the time series
Graphs of population indices for Virginia Rail, Sora, and Common Gallinule

Figure 9.5: Population indices for Virginia Rail, Sora, and Common Gallinule based on the Great Lakes Marsh Monitoring Program in Ontario. Black lines represent population estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals.

Long description

Figure 9.5 displays three side-by-side individual line graphs, each showing a time series (1995 to 2024) tracking the population indices (birds per monitoring station) for Virginia Rail, Sora, and Common Gallinule based on the Great Lakes Marsh Monitoring Program in Ontario.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1995 to 2024. The Y-axes show the number of birds per monitoring station, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly population index. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

Key patterns in these graphs:

Left graph: Virginia Rail

  • The number of birds per monitoring station starts near 0.4 in 1995 and gradually decreases to 0.25 in 2024.

Middle graph: Sora

  • The number of birds per monitoring station starts just above 0.1 in 1995. Between 1995 and 2024, the number of birds per monitoring station fluctuates between 0.05 and 0.25. In 2024, the number of birds per monitoring station is slightly above 0.1. Overall, no clear trend is seen over this period.

Right graph: Common Gallinule

  • The number of birds per monitoring station starts just above 0.4 in 1995 and decreases to 0.1 by the early 2010s. After 2013, the number of birds per monitoring station increase slightly to 0.2 in 2024. Overall, there is still a slight decrease between 1995 and 2024.

Comparative Observations:

  • Virginia Rail and Common Gallinule both showed overall decreases between 1995 and 2024.

9.3 Harvest of other harvested species

Harvest of American Coot, American Woodcock, Band-tailed Pigeon, and Wilson’s Snipe has significantly decreased since 1976. Harvest of Sandhill Crane (Mid-continent Population) has significantly increased over the long term and over the past 5 years. Harvest of American Coot, American Woodcock, Band-tailed Pigeon, and Wilson’s Snipe remained stable over this period. In 2024, there were 3.05 (2.35 – 3.76) thousand American Coot, 14.3 (11.6 – 17.1) thousand Sandhill Crane, 108 (40 – 195) Band-tailed Pigeon, 2.83 (2.13 – 3.54) thousand Wilson’s Snipe, and 19.3 (16.8 – 21.7) thousand American Woodcock harvested in Canada (Figure 9.6).

Mourning Dove harvest significantly increased in the 2010s, following the establishment of open seasons in Ontario in 2013 and Québec in 2016; previously only British Columbia had an open season. Over the past 5 years, Mourning Dove harvest has not changed significantly. In 2024, there were 17.3 (13.9 – 21) thousand Mourning Dove harvested in Canada, primarily in Ontario.

There are no data for murre harvest prior to 2013, although harvest restrictions implemented in the mid-1990s appear to have reduced annual harvest from approximately 750 thousand murres to approximately 250 thousand by the early 2000s (Chardine et al. 1999). In 2024, there were 18.9 (12.4 – 25.7) thousand Common Murre and 36.5 (27.7 – 45.8) thousand Thick-billed Murre harvested in Canada.

Graphs of estimated harvest in Canada of other hunted species from the National Harvest Survey

Figure 9.6: Estimated harvest in Canada of other hunted species from the National Harvest Survey (Smith, Villeneuve, and Gendron 2022). Black lines represent harvest estimates, and shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals.

Long description

Figure 9.6 displays eight individual line graphs arranged in three rows, each showing a time series (1976 to 2024) tracking the estimated annual harvest (in thousands) for different bird species harvested in Canada.

The X-axes represent the years, ranging from 1976 to 2024. The Y-axes show the harvest estimate, measured in thousands, with scales suited to each species.

The graph features a solid line representing the yearly estimate for harvest. Surrounding the line is a shaded band, which indicates the 95% confidence interval. The shaded area makes clear the range of possible values for each year, with the central line giving the best estimate.

First row (left to right):

  1. American Coot
    • Harvest starts over at over 40,000 in the late 1970s and declines steadily to below 5,000 by the early 2000s.
  2. American Woodcock
    • Harvest starts over 150,000 in the late 1970s, and declines steadily to below 20,000 in 2024.
  3. Band-tailed Pigeon
    • Harvest starts around 5,000 in the late 1970s and declines to near zero by the mid-1990s. Harvest remains minimal since then.

Second row (left to right):

  1. Common Murre
    • Harvest starts in 2013, with variable harvests fluctuating from approximately 35,000 to below 10, 000 in recent years.
  2. Mourning Dove
    • Harvest is minimal from 1976 to the early 2010s, followed by a steep increase in 2013, bringing harvest to approximately 20,000 in recent years.
  3. Sandhill Crane
    • Harvest starts below 5,000 in the late 1970s and increases above 15,000 by 2020.

Third row (left to right):

  1. Thick-billed Murre
    • Harvest starts in 2013 and hits a high peak in 2015 at over 90,000, followed by a steady decline below 30,000 by 2020.
  2. Wilson's Snipe
    • Harvest starts at around 35,000 in the early 1990s and declines steadily to near zero in recent years.

Comparative Observations:

  • Notable declines in harvest of American Coot, American Woodcock, Band-tailed Pigeon and Wilson’s Snipe since 1976.
  • Harvest of Common Murre and Thick-billed Murre display large variations.
  • Notable increase in harvest of Sandhill Crane since 1976.

10 References

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11 Appendix A

11.1 Breeding population estimate and trends of game birds from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey

Table 11.1: Breeding population estimates (in thousands), with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and trend estimates, for the Traditional Survey Area of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey of Western Canada and the Northwestern US (strata: 51, 52, 63 to 68, 70 to 72). Trends are expressed as an annual percent change. Significant trends (p < 0.05) are indicated with an asterisk [*].
Species Population size 2025 5-yr trend (2020 to 2025) 1970 to present trend
American Coot 1,120 (876 – 1,370) -3.13 (-18 – 30.2) 0.46 (-0.3 – 3.4)
American Wigeon 3,190 (2,660 – 3,730) 3.8 (-0.34 – 8.3) -0.23 (-0.48 – 0)
Blue-winged Teal 4,430 (3,990 – 4,870) -8.01 (-13.5 – -2.82)* -0.03 (-0.25 – 0.1)
Bufflehead 1,380 (1,170 – 1,600) 2.54 (-0.06 – 5.1) 1.3 (1.01 – 1.55)*
Canvasback 690 (573 – 808) 1.22 (-3.21 – 5.6) 0.36 (-0.11 – 0.6)
Common Goldeneye 826 (630 – 1,020) 7.01 (-0.14 – 14.4) 1.11 (0.6 – 1.59)*
Gadwall 2,410 (2,190 – 2,640) -4.76 (-8.7 – -0.83)* 0.79 (0.57 – 1.01)*
Green-winged Teal 2,550 (2,110 – 2,990) 0.13 (-5.46 – 5.8) 0.4 (0.11 – 0.7)*
Mallard 6,550 (6,040 – 7,070) -5.25 (-7.73 – -2.71)* -0.63 (-0.78 – -0.48)*
Merganser sp. 863 (626 – 1,100) 4.2 (-3.32 – 11.7) 1.81 (1.33 – 2.27)*
Northern Pintail 2,240 (1,910 – 2,570) 0.99 (-5.36 – 6.8) -1.92 (-2.17 – -1.66)*
Northern Shoveler 2,760 (2,440 – 3,080) -4.74 (-9.9 – 0) 0.42 (0.21 – 0.63)*
Redhead 918 (765 – 1,070) -2.49 (-8.64 – 3.6) 0.62 (0.27 – 0.93)*
Ring-necked Duck 1,530 (1,280 – 1,790) 3.19 (-2.91 – 9.1) 1.45 (0.55 – 1.91)*
Ruddy Duck 764 (569 – 960) 4.12 (-4.78 – 13.5) 1.63 (1.01 – 2.23)*
Scaup sp. 3,680 (3,270 – 4,080) -0.08 (-2.73 – 2.5) -0.75 (-0.94 – -0.56)*

11.2 Breeding population estimates and trends of ducks from the Eastern Waterfowl Survey

Table 11.2: Breeding population estimates (in thousands), with 95% credible intervals (CI) and trend estimates, for the core survey area of the Eastern Waterfowl Survey. Estimates are based on combined results of helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft surveys, except for those species monitored only by the helicopter survey (+). Trends are expressed as an annual percent change. Significant trends (p < 0.05) are indicated with an asterisk [*].
Species 2025 Breeding Population Estimate 5-yr Trend
(2020 to 2025)
1990 to 2025 Trend
American Black Duck 560 (499 – 630) 1.78 (0.53 – 3.14)* 0.52 (0.16 – 0.89)*
American Wigeon 17.7 (0.155 – 35.2) 1.08 (-2.93 – 5.7) 0.88 (-0.81 – 2.6)
Black Scoter (+) 21.4 (0 – 50.5) -2.53 (-16.2 – 12.3) 9.26 (4.46 – 14.1)*
Bufflehead 38.5 (20.5 – 56.4) 4.66 (-2.21 – 12.5) 0.08 (-1.42 – 1.6)
Common Goldeneye (+) 226 (151 – 301) -1.09 (-3.46 – 1) -0.21 (-1.11 – 0.6)
Common Merganser (+) 399 (322 – 476) 7.37 (4.33 – 10.8)* 2.19 (1.42 – 2.97)*
Goldeneye sp. 499 (377 – 689) 2.21 (-0.37 – 5.6) 0.47 (-0.34 – 1.3)
Green-winged Teal 234 (186 – 301) 0.23 (-1.19 – 2) 0.08 (-0.48 – 0.6)
Hooded Merganser (+) 675 (506 – 844) 11.8 (8.65 – 14.8)* 5.77 (4.96 – 6.54)*
Mallard 569 (394 – 886) 1.68 (-0.47 – 4.4) 1.51 (0.48 – 2.59)*
Ring-necked Duck 573 (466 – 716) 0.33 (-1.03 – 1.7) 0.37 (-0.14 – 0.9)
Scaup sp. 11.4 (1.44 – 21.4) 10.1 (-1.66 – 23.7) -0.21 (-2.91 – 2.5)
Surf Scoter (+) 84.2 (21.4 – 147) -3.38 (-8.74 – 1.8) 0.78 (-1.24 – 2.7)
White-winged Scoter (+) 1.31 (0 – 3.31) -12.5 (-24.9 – 0.5) -0.88 (-8.25 – 7)

11.3 Breeding population estimate and trends in ducks from the British Columbia Plateau Breeding Waterfowl Survey

Table 11.3: Number of breeding pairs (in thousands), with 95% credible intervals (CI) and trend estimates, for the Central Plateau of British Colombia from the Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey of the Central Interior Plateau of British Columbia. Trends are expressed as an annual percent change. Significant trends (p < 0.05) are indicated with an asterisk [*].
Species 2025 Breeding Population Estimate 5-yr Trend
(2020 to 2025)
2006 to 2025 Trend
American Wigeon 19.6 (14.4 – 24.8) 0.68 (-9.04 – 8) 1.35 (-0.63 – 3.1)
Blue-winged Teal 11.3 (6.69 – 15.9) 28.4 (-4.83 – 74.4) 5.41 (2.49 – 8.41)*
Bufflehead 51.3 (43.8 – 58.7) 1.53 (-2 – 5.3) 1.11 (0.25 – 1.86)*
Canada Goose 28.9 (23.6 – 34.2) -0.87 (-8.18 – 7.4) -0.97 (-2.16 – 0.3)
Gadwall 5.03 (1.74 – 8.32) -1.48 (-13 – 13.8) -2.03 (-4.9 – 1.1)
Goldeneye sp. 21 (15.4 – 26.7) -0.9 (-3.98 – 3.1) -1.19 (-2.17 – -0.18)*
Green-winged Teal 44.1 (33.8 – 54.4) 0.62 (-10.2 – 11.9) 0.29 (-1.26 – 1.7)
Mallard 81.3 (69.9 – 92.7) 1.09 (-2.88 – 6) -0.38 (-1.22 – 0.4)
Merganser sp. 11.3 (8.98 – 13.6) 3.32 (-2.58 – 14.2) -0.28 (-1.46 – 1)
Northern Pintail 4.92 (1.06 – 8.77) 5.43 (-17.3 – 33.3) 0.1 (-4.34 – 4.1)
Ring-necked Duck 89.2 (72.2 – 106) -0.06 (-8.66 – 8.2) 1.09 (-0.09 – 2.2)
Ruddy Duck 6.67 (3.31 – 10) 12.4 (-4.64 – 40.3) 0.97 (-2.6 – 4.8)
Scaup sp. 53.8 (33.3 – 74.3) 2.78 (-3.9 – 13.5) 0.93 (-0.96 – 2.9)

11.4 Breeding population estimate and trends in geese and ducks from Lincoln estimates

Table 11.4: Estimated population (in thousands), with 95% credible intervals (CI) and trend estimates, based on Lincoln estimates. Trends are expressed as an annual percent change. Significant trends (p < 0.05) are indicated with an asterisk [*].
Species Region Breeding Population Estimate 5-yr Trend
(2020 to 2025)
1970 to 2024 Trend
Brant Atlantic 87.6 (50.1 – 125) 2.5 (-16.2 – 24.9) -1.31 (-5.72 – 3.6)
Cackling Goose - 893 (626 – 1,160) -0.75 (-9.36 – 9) 3.05 (2.33 – 3.81)*
Greater White-fronted Goose Mid-continent 2,920 (2,070 – 3,760) 3.46 (-7.82 – 16.1) 4.1 (3.39 – 4.8)*
Lesser Snow Goose Mid-continent 5,140 (3,990 – 6,280) 3.7 (-8.01 – 16.9) 2.32 (1.61 – 3.03)*
Lesser Snow Goose Western Arctic 1,850 (1,190 – 2,510) 10.6 (-7.46 – 32.3) 4.94 (-0.77 – 10.6)
Ross’s Goose - 841 (625 – 1,060) -2.15 (-21.2 – 18.6) 2.65 (-4.82 – 10.2)
Wood Duck Eastern 4,340 (3,600 – 5,090) 0.03 (-4.69 – 4.8) 2.87 (2.43 – 3.32)*
Wood Duck Western 59.2 (8.45 – 110) 4.42 (-14.2 – 25.4) 5.3 (3.93 – 6.7)*

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2026-01-16