Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026: Headline statements

These headline statements tell a concise story about past and future changes in climate in Canada. The statements emerge from the assessment of evidence published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. The statements are cross-referenced to specific sections in chapters of the report, where the supporting evidence is found. There is high confidence or more associated with these statements, which are consistent with, and draw on, the chapter key messages.

Assessing the consequences of past and future changes in climate for people and nature was outside the scope of this report. However, several case story contributions from Indigenous Peoples to this report provide insight into the implications of climate change for communities across this land. A deep analysis of the impacts of climate change can be found in other reports within the Canada in a Changing Climate: National Assessment Process.

Headline statement 1: Canada has warmed over the past 75 years due to emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. Over this period Canada has warmed by 2.0°C and Canada’s North has warmed by 2.6°C. (2.2, 2.4, 4.2)

Headline statement 2: Canada has warmed rapidly over the past 50 years, consistent with rapid global warming. Since 1970, Canada has warmed nearly twice as fast as the global average, and the Canadian Arctic has warmed three times as fast as the global average. (2.2, 2.4, 4.2)

Headline statement 3: Annual total precipitation has increased in Canada over the past 75 years with the largest percentage increases in northern Canada. Annual total precipitation in Canada has increased much faster than for the global land area over this time frame. (2.2, 2.5)

Headline statement 4: Warming temperatures have driven wide-ranging, interconnected, and sustained changes across Canada. The changes include more extreme heat, less extreme cold, longer growing seasons, longer fire seasons, earlier peak stream flow, shorter snow and ice cover seasons, thinning glaciers, thawing permafrost, warming oceans and rising sea level. Human-caused warming is the only explanation for the collective changes observed. (2.2, 2.4, 2.5,5.3, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 6.7, 7.2, 7.4, 8.2, 8.7)

Headline statement 5: In the near term, annual average temperature in Canada is expected to rise by about 1°C from 2021 to 2040. This unavoidable warming will exacerbate climate trends that are already observed. (3.2, 3.4)

Headline statement 6: Whether warming in Canada intensifies or stabilizes in the second half of the century will be determined by the level of global greenhouse gas emissions. Warming in Canada will intensify as long as global greenhouse gas emissions continue. Temperature in Canada will stabilize only if and when global carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero. (3.2, 3.4)

Headline statement 7: The warming and associated changes in climate in Canada are effectively irreversible. Some warming-driven changes, such as sea ice loss, will stabilize if temperature stabilizes. Sea -level change, glacier melt, and permafrost thaw will continue even after surface temperatures stabilize. (3.2, 6.3, 6.5, 6.7, 7.4, 9.4)

Headline statement 8: Human-caused warming has already affected the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events in Canada. Increases in hot extremes and human heat-stress, as well as decreases in cold extremes, have been observed. These changes will intensify with additional global warming. (8.2)

Headline statement 9: Droughts and flash floods will become more frequent and severe with additional warming. Summer droughts are projected to become longer, and more intense, and occur more frequently in central and southern Canada. Increases in the frequency and intensity of atmospheric rivers (in high emissions scenarios) and of extreme rainfall will lead to more frequent and intense flash flooding. (4.5, 5.6, 5.7, 8.3)

Headline statement 10: More frequent and intense extreme fire weather is projected for most regions of Canada. Fire seasons are already longer and will lengthen further with additional global warming. (8.7)

Headline statement 11: Summer freshwater availability in southern Canada is threatened by changes in the water cycle. Many important water cycle processes are occurring earlier in spring, such as snowmelt, peak stream flow, and groundwater recharge, with risks to summer water availability. In some western Canada watersheds, declines in glacier contributions to summer streamflow have already been observed. (5.3, 5.5, 5.8, 6.2, 6.5)

Headline statement 12: Iconic landscapes are changing across Canada as snow and ice disappear. Glaciers in western Canada will largely disappear by the end of this century. Warming temperatures have shortened the snow cover season and reduced sea ice cover of all types. Permafrost thaw is transforming the land in many places across northern Canada. These changes will intensify with additional warming. (Ch.6)

Headline statement 13: Extreme high sea-level events will occur more often where local sea level is rising. Local sea level is projected to rise faster than the global average along parts of the Atlantic and western Arctic coastlines of Canada. In these areas, extreme high sea-level events will be exacerbated during periods of high storm surge and high tides. (7.4, 7.5, 7.6)

Headline statement 14: The oceans around Canada have warmed and acidified because of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. Marine heatwaves have become more frequent and intense. The oceans will continue to warm, absorb carbon dioxide, and acidify as long as air temperature and carbon dioxide continue to rise. (7.2, 7.7, 7.8)

Headline statement 15: Canada’s land and oceans are currently a carbon sink, consistent with their behaviour over recent decades (medium confidence). Canada’s oceans are expected to continue to be a sink in the future. In contrast, whether Canada’s land remains a sink or becomes a carbon source is uncertain. Increases in carbon uptake from vegetation growth on land may be offset by carbon emissions from permafrost thaw, wildfires, and other disturbances. (9.5)