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Summary of the socio-economic analysis of the potential Species at Risk Act listing of Chinook Salmon Designatable Unit 1: Southern Mainland Boundary Bay, Ocean, Fall population (Boundary Bay Chinook)

Prepared by Policy and Economic Analysis
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Region
November 17, 2025

 

Image.
Figure 1: Chinook salmon adult spawning phase (Source: Fisheries and Oceans Canada)

Region: Pacific  

Populations: Southern Mainland - Boundary Bay, Ocean, Fall

Scientific name: Oncorhynchus tshawytscha

COSEWIC Status: Threatened

SARA Status: Under consideration

Context

The Southern Mainland - Boundary Bay, Ocean, Fall population (designatable unit [DU] 1) of Chinook salmon (hereafter Boundary Bay Chinook) was assessed as threatened by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) in 2020, initiating the current Species at Risk Act (SARA) listing process.

A socio-economic analysis (SEA) has been completed to inform the current SARA listing decision for Boundary Bay Chinook. The SEA considers incremental costs and benefits relative to a baseline of activity that accounts for management measures in place, or known to be coming into force, in the absence of the proposed regulation (meaning, without versus with listing).

Baseline management and economic profiles

To create the baseline scenario for this analysis, an average of the data from 2020-2023 was used.

Chinook salmon fisheries are managed by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO). There are currently restrictions on Chinook retention in  commercial, recreational, and Food, Social, and Ceremonial (FSC) fisheries, as well as in the Five Nations rights-based sale fishery and recreational fisheries.

Management scenarios

Base case (meaning, baseline), list and do not list management scenarios were developed as part of the current listing process.Footnote 1  Management scenarios outline the likely regulatory and non-regulatory activities associated with listing Boundary Bay Chinook, and detail potential management options whether or not they are listed under SARA. Management scenarios are not binding commitments but are intended to represent realistic and feasible approaches given the information available at the time of drafting. The SEA assesses the economic impacts of mandatory and potential measures in each scenario relative to the baseline.

Under the list scenario:

SARA general prohibitions would immediately come into effect in Canada, making it illegal to kill, harm, harass, capture, take, possess, collect, buy, sell, or trade Boundary Bay Chinook. Activities affecting the species or its critical habitat may be permitted or exempted under SARA, provided certain purposes and pre-conditions are met. A recovery strategy would be developed and further measures to address known threats may be identified in a subsequent action plan. Critical habitat (the habitat necessary for the survival or recovery of Boundary Bay Chinook) would be identified, to the extent possible, in a recovery strategy and protected from destruction. Regardless of the SARA listing decision, Boundary Bay Chinook will continue to receive protection under the Fisheries Act.

To comply with SARA general prohibitions, the following restrictions and closures are anticipated:

Under the do not list scenario:

Costs of list and do not list scenarios

Impacts were assessed over a 12-year period, which is consistent with the timeframe considered in the Recovery Potential Assessment (Dionne et al. 2023) and is representative of approximately 3 generations for the population. All monetary values are expressed in real 2023 Canadian dollars, and annualized and present values are calculated using a 7% discount rate, in accordance with Treasury Board guidelines.

Total monetized costs were estimated at $92.4 – $138.7 million (present value) over the 12 year period, or $11.6 – $17.5 million per year. The breakdown of the annualized average incremental costs to interested parties are as follows:

Table 1 below provides a detailed breakdown of the costs to businesses and Canadians.

Table 1: Incremental costs (in 2023 million $, 12 years, 7% discount rate)
Sectors Present value Annualized average
Business/industry costs (lost profits)

Commercial salmon fishery*

-0.5

-0.06

Seafood processing sector

9.6

1.2

Lodge/charter recreational fishing service businesses

4.7

0.6

Other recreational fishing service businesses

29.9 to 36.2

3.8 to 4.6
Costs to Canadians

Recreational angling  (consumer surplus)

48.7 to 88.7

6.1 to 11.2

Total costs

92.4 to 138.7

11.6 to 17.5

*Some harvesters reported negative profit margins, specifically in the salmon seine and gillnet fisheries. However, vessels fishing in these fisheries are quite diversified.Footnote 3  Vessels fishing in the salmon gillnet and salmon seine fisheries only see a quarter of their revenue come from these fisheries. In the case of vessels fishing in the salmon gillnet fishery, over half of their revenues come  from halibut, prawn, and crab, which all command high profit margins. In the case of vessels fishing in the salmon seine fishery, 40% of their revenues come from profitable fisheries (halibut and sablefish fisheries).Footnote 4

It is estimated that FSC fisheries may experience a reduction of over 18,000 pieces of Chinook salmon. This is an estimate based on publicly available dataFootnote 5; as such, the actual number of pieces of Chinook salmon that may be affected by list scenario measures may vary. Non-retention of Chinook in FSC fisheries in these areas could result in social and cultural impacts. The inherent cultural significance is not assessed here and cannot be monetized.

The cost of research activities to government is unknown but is expected to be lowFootnote 6 . It is uncertain how costly habitat protection and changes to hatchery production might be. However, these costs may be covered by existing DFO and SARA program funding.

Under a do not list scenario, the baseline would persist. As such, there are no incremental costs or benefits under the do not list scenario.

Benefits of list and do not list scenarios 

Simulations of growth and recovery probabilities in the Recovery Potential Assessment for Boundary Bay Chinook show different potentials for benefits. Results suggest that it is unlikely that Boundary Bay Chinook would recover given baseline conditions. However, information was not available to assess the potential efficacy of mitigation measures, nor their potential to increase the probability of meeting the recovery target.

In the absence of specific information on recovery potential, incremental benefits cannot be estimated. Instead, a breakeven analysis was conducted to establish a range of benefits, or willingness to pay (WTP) values, that would be needed to offset the monetized costs and demonstrate a net benefit. The WTP is estimated by dividing the total incremental cost of the listing scenario by the number of Canadian householdsFootnote 7 . For the listing scenario, the benefits value would need to be $0.70 to $1.05/year, per Canadian household, to equal the monetized costs.

To validate these breakeven values, they were compared to a valuation study for Chinook protection and recovery in the United States of America (Wallmo and Lew, 2012). This study is considered representative of the potential management measures to be implemented for Boundary Bay Chinook if listed under SARA, and is the most current research in this area. This study estimated the annual WTP value of Chinook salmon recovery at CAD $51.32 per household (2023 dollars), after adjusting for inflation and exchange rateFootnote 8 .

This analysis suggests that the breakeven values of $0.70 to $1.05/year are well below the estimate in the Wallmo and Lew study,  demonstrating that benefits of recovery, if achieved, could potentially be greater than costs.

Summary

Overall, the incremental costs under the list scenario are between $92.4 and $138.7 million present value, with an annualized value of $11.6 and $17.5 million. This is within the range of “high impact,” as defined by Treasury Board guidance. There are no incremental costs or benefits under the do not list scenario. Benefits of recovery could exceed the monetized costs, provided the recovery objective is achieved.

References

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2026-01-09