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Summary of the socio-economic analysis of the potential Species at Risk Act (SARA) listing of Coho Salmon: Interior Fraser population (Interior Fraser Coho)

Prepared by Policy and Economic Analysis
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Region
December 19, 2025

Image of Coho Salmon.
Figure 1: Coho salmon adult spawning phase (Source: Fisheries and Oceans Canada)

Region: Pacific
Population: Interior Fraser River
Scientific name: Oncorhynchus kisutch
COSEWIC Status: Threatened
SARA Status: Under consideration

Context

The Interior Fraser River population (designatable unit [DU]) of coho salmon (hereafter IFR Coho) was assessed as threatened by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) in 2016, initiating the current Species at Risk Act (SARA) listing process.

A socio-economic analysis (SEA) has been completed to inform the current SARA listing decision for IFR Coho. The SEA considers incremental costs and benefits relative to a baseline of activity that accounts for management measures in place, or known to be coming into force, in the absence of the proposed regulation (that is, without versus with listing).

Baseline management and economic profiles

To create the baseline scenario for this analysis, an average of the data from 2020 to 2023 was used.

Coho salmon fisheries are managed by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO). There are currently restrictions on coho retention in commercial, recreational, and food, social, and ceremonial (FSC) fisheries, as well as in the Five Nations rights-based sale fishery.

Management scenarios

Base case (that is, baseline), list and do not list management scenarios were developed as part of the current listing process.Footnote 1   Management scenarios outline the likely regulatory and non-regulatory activities associated with IFR Coho, and detail potential management options whether or not they are listed under SARA. Management scenarios are not binding commitments but are intended to represent realistic and feasible approaches given the information available at the time of drafting. The SEA assesses the economic impacts of mandatory and potential measures in each scenario relative to the baseline.

Under the list scenario:

SARA general prohibitions would immediately come into effect in Canada, making it illegal to kill, harm, harass, capture, take, possess, collect, buy, sell, or trade IFR Coho. Activities affecting the species or its critical habitat may be permitted or exempted under SARA, provided certain purposes and pre-conditions are met. A recovery strategy would be developed and further measures to address known threats may be identified in a subsequent action plan. Critical habitat (the habitat necessary for the survival or recovery of IFR Coho) would be identified, to the extent possible, in a recovery strategy and protected from destruction. Regardless of the SARA listing decision, IFR Coho will continue to receive protection under the Fisheries Act.

To comply with SARA general prohibitions, the following restrictions and closures are anticipated:

Under the do not list scenario:

Costs of list and do not list scenarios

Incremental costs were assessed based on annual average revenues from 2020 to 2023. All monetary values are expressed in real 2024 Canadian dollars.

The breakdown of the annualized average incremental costs to interested parties are as follows:

The cost of research activities to government is unknown but is expected to be lowFootnote 2 . It is uncertain how costly habitat protection and changes to hatchery production might be. However, these costs may be covered by existing DFO and SARA program funding.

Under a Do Not List scenario, the baseline would persist. As such, there are no incremental costs or benefits under the Do Not List scenario.

Benefits of list and do not list scenarios

Simulations of growth and recovery probabilities in the recovery potential assessment for IFR Coho show that achieving the recovery target is likely possible under current environmental conditions and variability, so long as human-induced mortality is minimal and assuming impacts from the identified threats are mitigated. However, information was not available to assess the potential efficacy of mitigation measures, nor their potential to increase the probability of meeting the recovery target.

In the absence of specific information on recovery potential, incremental benefits cannot be estimated. Instead, a breakeven analysis was conducted to establish a range of benefits, or willingness to pay (WTP) values, that would be needed to offset the monetized costs and demonstrate a net benefit. The WTP is estimated by dividing the total incremental cost of the listing scenario by the number of Canadian householdsFootnote 3 . For the listing scenario, the benefits value would need to be $0.0001/year, per Canadian household, to equal the monetized costs.

To validate these breakeven values, they were compared to a valuation study for coho protection and recovery in the United States of America (Wallmo and Lew, 2015). This study is considered representative of the potential management measures to be implemented for IFR Coho if listed under SARA, and is the most current research in this area. This study estimated the annual WTP value of coho salmon recovery at CAD $73.57 per household (2024 dollars)Footnote 4 , after adjusting for inflation and exchange rateFootnote 5 .

This analysis suggests that the breakeven values of $0.0001/year are well below the estimate in the Wallmo and Lew study, demonstrating that benefits of recovery, if achieved, could potentially be greater than costs.

Summary

Overall, the incremental costs under the List scenario are within the range of “low impact,” as defined by Treasury Board guidance. There are no incremental costs or benefits under the Do Not List scenario. Benefits of recovery could exceed the monetized costs, provided the recovery objective is achieved.

References

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2026-04-23