Woodland caribou scientific review to identify critical habitat: chapter 23

Appendix 6.9

Estimates of Numbers and Trends for the Boreal Population of Woodland Caribou Provided By Jurisdictions

Note: Caribou local population estimates in the following chart may not fully account for themovement of caribou between jurisdictions within trans-boundary ranges (e.g., some caribouthat cross provincial/territorial borders may be represented more than once). Also, someof the local population size estimates and trend data are based primarily on professionaljudgement and limited data and not on rigorously collected fi eld data.

 Local Population refers to the 39 recognized discrete local populations; Unit of analysisrefers to the remaining units of which 6 units in NWT are the results of sub-dividing a largearea of relatively continuous habitat considered to be occupied by one large population intounits of analysis. Eight units in Saskatchewan represent units of analysis for multiple localpopulations within an area of relatively continuous habitat. The 4 remaining units of analysis found in parts of Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Labrador include possible multiple localpopulations within a large area of relatively continuous habitat. In the absence of defi ned localpopulations and units of analysis for these areas, the extent of occurrence was considered tocomprise the unit of analysis for these 4 units.

 

 

map # Local Population or
Unit of analysis
Year of
Census
Extent of Survey
Coverage
Local Population
Size
Estimate
Confidence Limits Current Local
Population Trend
Cross-Jurisdictional
1 AB/BC Chinchaga

AB – Annual

BC - 2004

AB – Prescise pop.

Trend estimate only

(AB does not

enumerate caribou)

BC - Incomplete

250-300

(includes

former

Hotchkiss

Local

Population)

AB- Size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data
BC – Average based on several different extrapolations from partial inventory coverage
AB - Rapidly decline (Mean = 0.93 during 2002-2006; Range=0.80-1.06) BC – Suspected Declining based on professional judgement
2 AB/NWT Bistcho

AB – 2005

NWT -

unknown

AB – Prescise pop.

Trend estimate only

(AB does not

enumerate caribou)

NWT – Incomplete

300 AB- Size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data
NWT – Estimates based on minimum numbers observed from flights
Suspected declining based on professional judgement agreed to by both jurisdictions
3

AB/NWT Steen River \

Yates

AB – 2005

NWT -

unknown

AB – Prescise pop.

Trend estimate only

(AB does not

enumerate caribou)

NWT - unknown

300 AB- Size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data
NWT – unknown
Unknown

 

 

 

 

 

map # Local Population or
Unit of analysis
Year of
Census
Extent of Survey
Coverage
Local Population
Size
Estimate
Confidence
Limits
Current Local
Population Trend

Northwest Territories

Reported data: Estimates for the units representing continuously distributed local population were derived from density estimates surrounding collared animals, and then extrapolated to larger geographic areas, or for the North Slave region, a density estimate was developed from aerial surveys. Reported trends are expert opinion from NWT based on size estimates over time.

4 NWT Inuvialuit 2005 Incomplete Unknown Unknown Unknown
5 NWT Gwich’in 2005 Incomplete 500 The population estimate is based on extrapolation of densities from minimum numbers observed from other areas in NWT with collared animals Increasing based on professional judgement
6 NWT Sahtu 2005 Incomplete 2000 The population estimate is based on extrapolation of densities from minimum numbers observed from other areas in NWT with collared animals Unknown
7 NWT North Slave 2005 Incomplete 700 The population estimate is based on extrapolation of densities from minimum numbers observed from other areas in NWT with collared animals Unknown
8 NWT Dehcho (N/SW) 2005 Incomplete 2000 The population estimate is based on extrapolation of densities from minimum numbers observed from other areas in NWT with collared animals likely decline based on professional judgement
9

NWT South Slave/SE

Dehcho

2005 Incomplete 600 The population estimate is based on extrapolation of densities from minimum numbers observed from other areas in NWT with collared animals likely declining based on recruitment and cow survival–based on 5 years of trend data

 

 

 

map #

Local Population or

Unit of analysis

Year of

Census

Extent of Survey

Coverage

Local

Population

Size

Estimate

Confidence Limits

Current Local

Population Trend

British Columbia
10 BC Maxhamish 2004 Incomplete 306 Average based on several different extrapolations from partial inventory coverage Unknown
11 BC Calendar 2004 Incomplete

291 (best

estimate)

Average based on several different extrapolations from partial inventory coverage Unknown
12 BC Snake Sahtaneh 2004 Incomplete

365 (best

estimate)

Average based on several
different extrapolations from
partial inventory coverage

Suspected Declining

Report for the Snake Satenah

had 94% adult female survival

and calf recruitment of 5-9

calves/100 cows which is

essentially a lambda of 1, but

the low calf recruitment

concluded that the local

population was suspected

declining. However, the study

was too short to make any firm

conclusions.

13 BC Parker Core 2007 Incomplete

24 (best

estimate)

Average based on several
different extrapolations from
partial inventory coverage
Unknown
14 BC Prophet Core 2004 Incomplete

54 (best

estimate)

Average based on several
different extrapolations from
partial inventory coverage
Unknown
Alberta
15 AB Deadwood 2005

Local population trend

estimate (AB does not

enumerate caribou)

40 Local population size
estimate based on
professional judgement and
available field data

Suspect declining. Local

population trend not measured.

16 AB Caribou Mountains Annual

Local population trend

estimate (AB does not

enumerate caribou)

400-500 Local population size
estimate based on
professional judgement and
available field data

Rapidly declining (mean=

0.92 during 1995 – 2007

Range = 0.73 – 1.14)

17 AB Red Earth Annual

Local population trend

estimate (AB does not

enumerate caribou)

250-350 Local population size
estimate based on
professional judgement and
available field data

Rapidly declining (mean=

0.94 during 1995 – 2007

Range = 0.81 – 1.30)

18

AB West Side

Athabasca River

Annual

Local population trend

estimate (AB does not

enumerate caribou)

300-400 Local population size
estimate based on
professional judgement and
available field data

Declining (mean= 0.99

during 1993 – 2007; range =

0.83 – 1.14)

19 AB Richardson  

Local population trend

estimate (AB does not

enumerate caribou)

<100 Local population size
estimate based on
professional judgement and
available field data

Unknown. Local population

trend not measured.

20

AB East Side

Athabasca River

Annual

Local population trend

estimate (AB does not

enumerate caribou)

150-250 Local population size
estimate based on
professional judgement and
available field data

Declining (mean= 0.95

during 1993 – 2007; range =

0.80 – 1.08)

21

AB Cold Lake Air

Weapons Range

Annual

Local population trend

estimate (AB does not

enumerate caribou)

100-150 Local population size
estimate based on
professional judgement and
available field data

Rapidly declining (mean=

0.93 during 1998 – 2007;

range = 0.75 – 1.05)

22 AB Nipisi     60-70   Unknown
23 AB Slave Lake Annual

Local population trend

estimate (AB does not

enumerate caribou)

75 Local population size
estimate based on
professional judgement and
available field data
Unknown
24 AB Little Smoky Annual

Local population trend

estimate (AB does not

enumerate caribou)

80 Local population size
estimate based on
professional judgement and
available field data

Rapidly declining (mean=

0.89 during 1999 – 2007

Range = 0.77 – 1.04)

 

 

 

map #

Local Population or

Unit of analysis

Year of

Census

Extent of Survey

Coverage

Local

Population

Size

Estimate

Confidence Limits

Current Local

Population Trend

Saskatchewan

Data reported: The survey used by Saskatchewan Wildlife Branch in the 1980s and early 1990s was one developed by government staff based on advice from some caribou researchers at the time. Surveys were conducted in late November or early December (but were never successful for a variety of reasons). Staff then chose to fly as soon as possible after a fresh snowfall, conducting a transect survey each morning using tightly spaced lines to pick up fresh caribou signs and record. Each afternoon staff would return with a helicopter to search out the sign, locate, count and sex/age the animals. In a survey in 1992, a helicopter was used for everything and simply went off transect each time fresh caribou signs were encountered - following up the sign, recording it, and returning to transect. Sunny days with shadows to show up the tracks were preferrable in contrast to a typical moose survey. Staff also stratified survey areas for the southern ones that were off the shield. In retrospect minimum counts were obtained rather than total local population estimates, and no attempts were made to define confidence limits. (pers comm. T.Trottier)

25 SK Davy-Athabasca 2006 N/A 310

Estimate based on habitat

based on a density estimate

of 0.031 (Al Arsenault pers.

Comm.)

Unknown
26 SK Clearwater 2006 N/A 425

Estimate based on habitat

based on density estimate of

0.036 (average of density

estimates from two adjacent

WCMUs)

Unknown
27 SK Highrock-Key 2006 Incomplete 1060

Estimate based on habitat

surveys of portions of range

based on density estimate of

0.041 (average of two

surveys)

Unknown
28 SK Steephill-Foster 2006 Incomplete 1075

Estimate based on habitat

and aerial surveys of

portions of range and aerial

survey in late 1980s based

on density estimate of 0.033

Unknown
29 SK Primrose-Cold Lake 2006 Incomplete 350

Estimate based on habitat

and aerial surveys in early

1990s, and data collected by

Alberta based on density

estimate of 0.047(average of

two surveys)

Unknown
30

SK Smoothstone-

Wapawekka

2006 Incomplete 700

Estimate based on habitat

and previous aerial surveys

of portions of range in early

1990s, and documented

range recession based on

density estimate of 0.027

(average of three surveys)

Declining with habitat change

based on professional

judgement

31

SK Suggi-Amisk-

Kississing

2006 Incomplete 430

Estimate based on habitat

and previous aerial surveys

of portions of range in late

1980s based on density

estimate of 0. 055 (average

of two surveys)

Unknown
32 SK Pasquia-Bog 2006 Incomplete 30

Estimate based on recent

genetic work cooperative

with Manitoba. Documented

range recession. based on

density estimate of 0.012 (Al

Arsenault pers. Comm.)

Threat of decline

based on professional

judgement

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