Express Entry and Labour Market Outcomes of Economic Immigrants

Research and Knowledge Mobilization
Planning and Research
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada
September, 2026

Executive Summary

Since 2015, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada has managed applications for the Federal High Skilled programs (the Federal Skilled Worker program, Canadian Experience Class and the Federal Skilled Trades program) and a portion of the Provincial Nominee Program through the Express Entry (EE) system. Candidates who meet the requirements of at least one of the three Federal High Skilled programs are entered into a pool and assigned a score using the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS). The CRS ranks candidates based on factors such as official language proficiency, education, and work experience that are known to predict positive long-term economic outcomes, including higher employment rates and earnings. Top-ranking candidates are invited to apply for permanent residence through regular invitation rounds, which are publicly documented online.

This research examined the labour market performance of EE immigrants and assessed whether the CRS effectively identifies applicants with strong labour market potential. Using data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) and the linked IMDB–2021 Census, the studies examined employment incidence, employment income, weekly wages, and occupational mobility among EE immigrants, compared outcomes with non-EE economic immigrants,^{Footnote 1} and assessed how CRS selection factors are associated with short- and medium-term labour market outcomes (five to six years post-admission).^{Footnote 2} Together, these four studies provide a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of Express Entry and the predictive value of CRS selection factors.

This evidence supports the development of economic immigration programs that admit skilled workers with strong potential for success in the Canadian labour market, helping to inform potential changes to EE.

Key Findings

1. Express Entry immigrants consistently achieve stronger labour market outcomes

Across all four studies, EE immigrants consistently outperform non-EE economic immigrants on a wide range of labour market outcomes. Compared with non-EE immigrants, EE immigrants are more likely to be employed, earn higher employment income, and receive substantially higher weekly wages. EE immigrants also demonstrate stronger occupational outcomes, including higher occupational retention and lower rates of downward occupational mobility. These advantages are generally observed across admission cohorts and across many demographic and labour market characteristics, indicating that the Express Entry system is effective in selecting immigrants with stronger labour market potential.

2. Core human capital factors are consistently associated with stronger labour market outcomes

Core human capital factors, particularly official language proficiency, education, and Canadian work experience, are consistently associated with stronger labour market outcomes.

Higher first official language proficiency is associated with higher employment incidence, higher employment income and weekly wages, and stronger occupational retention. The strongest outcomes are generally observed among applicants with high language proficiency.

Education has a relatively modest association with employment incidence in the short run but is consistently associated with higher employment income and weekly wages among employed immigrants. Applicants with higher educational attainment also demonstrate stronger occupational retention, suggesting that education contributes more to earnings and occupational success than to employment incidence.

Canadian work experience is also associated with stronger post-admission labour market outcomes. Applicants with more Canadian work experience generally achieve higher employment income and wages, and stronger occupational outcomes than those with less or no Canadian work experience.

3. Strong pre-admission employment earnings predict stronger post-admission labour market outcomes

Pre-admission employment earnings are among the strongest predictors of post-admission labour market success. Applicants with higher pre-admission employment earnings are more likely to have employment income after becoming permanent residents, earn substantially higher employment income and weekly wages, and are more likely to remain in their intended occupations. Conversely, applicants with very low pre-admission employment earnings often experience poorer labour market outcomes than those with no pre-admission employment earnings, suggesting that the quality of pre-admission labour market experience is more important than simply having Canadian work experience.

4. Occupation characteristics and job offers provide additional information about labour market outcomes

Applicants working in higher-skilled occupations generally achieve stronger labour market outcomes. Occupations classified as TEER 0 and TEER 1 are associated with greater employment incidence, higher employment income, stronger wage outcomes, and better occupational retention than lower-skilled occupations. Immigrants who remain in their occupations also earn substantially more than those who change occupations, even when they move to occupations at the same or a higher skill level. These findings suggest that successful occupational matching contributes importantly to labour market success.

Job offers show a more nuanced relationship with post-admission labour market outcomes. After controlling for other applicant characteristics, job offers are associated with modestly higher post-admission earnings among employed immigrants with especially strong outcomes observed for those holding job offers in senior management. However, the predictive value of job offers appears to be concentrated in specific outcome measures and occupational categories, whereas core human capital factors demonstrate more consistent associations across a broader range of labour market outcomes.

5. Several CRS bonus factors have limited associations with labour market outcomes

Several CRS bonus point factors show weak associations with post-admission labour market outcomes. After controlling for other applicant characteristics, siblings in Canada, Canadian education bonus points, French language bonus points, and spouse-related characteristics generally have limited or no positive association with short- to medium-term labour market outcomes, suggesting they contribute relatively little to predicting labour market success. However, because Express Entry has been in place only since 2015, longer follow-up periods are needed to assess whether these factors are associated with long-term labour market outcomes.