Pandemic era impacts on provisional federal community status forecasts
Research Highlights: Pandemic era impacts in 10-year population forecasts were evidenced across day and full parole as well as statutory release.
Publication
No RIB-22-21
2023
Research in Brief - PDF
Why we are doing this study
Over the course of two recent fiscal years (2020-21 and 2021-22), marked by the COVID-19 pandemic era, the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) experienced an unprecedented decline in the federal community supervision (-903 or 9.6%) populationFootnote 1. Consequently, a pause occurred in the annual forecasting exercise. Then, in 2022 new 10-year community supervision population projections were estimated to fiscal year-end 2031-32.Footnote 2
What we did
Weekly snapshots of community supervision counts from 1990-91 to year-end 2021-22 was derived from CSC's Offender Management System. Community status projections for day parole, full parole, and statutory release were estimated to 2031-32 for men and women combined. SAS / ETS software was used for analyzing univariate time series data and to select the best-fitting model.
What we found
As tabled below, on 29 March 2022, the actual count on day parole was 1,396 a decline of -167 or 10.7% over the pandemic period from 1,563. For 2031-32, the 10-year forecast for day parole is estimated to be 1,352, a decrease by 2031-32 of 44 or 3.2%. With the exception of the Atlantic region, all others are projected to decline and the total on day parole is estimated to be 211 or 13.5% below the pre-pandemic population.
In relation to full parole, at fiscal year-end 2021-22 the actual count was 4,130, a decline of -442 or 9.7% over the pandemic period from 4,572. By year-end 2031-32, the full parole is estimated to be 3,735, a slight decrease of 395 or 9.6%. All regions are projected to decrease by 2031-32 and the total on full parole is estimated to be 837 or 18.3% below the pre-pandemic population.
With respect to statutory release, at fiscal year-end 2021-22 the actual count was 2,475, a decline of -258 or 9.4% over the pandemic period from 2,733. By year-end 2031-32, the statutory release population is estimated to be 2,499, a relatively small Increase of 24 or 1.0%. With the exception of the Atlantic and Prairies regions, all others by 2031-32 are projected to decrease but the total number on statutory release is estimated to be 234 or 8.6% below the pre-pandemic population.
| Day Parole | Atlantic | Quebec | Ontario | Prairies | Pacific | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19-20 | 153 | 324 | 390 | 375 | 321 | 1,563 |
| 21-22 | 136 | 259 | 423 | 297 | 281 | 1,396 |
| 31-32 | 151 | 239 | 413 | 281 | 278 | 1,352 |
| Net | +15 | -20 | -10 | -16 | -3 | -44 |
| Change | 11.0% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 1.1% | 3.2% |
| Full Parole | Atlantic | Quebec | Ontario | Prairies | Pacific | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19-20 | 519 | 1,175 | 1,225 | 1,006 | 647 | 4,572 |
| 21-22 | 474 | 963 | 1,237 | 840 | 616 | 4,130 |
| 31-32 | 433 | 816 | 1,159 | 755 | 567 | 3,735 |
| Net | -41 | -147 | -78 | -85 | -49 | -395 |
| Change | 8.6% | 15.3% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 9.6% |
| Statutory Release | Atlantic | Quebec | Ontario | Prairies | Pacific | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19-20 | 200 | 595 | 785 | 809 | 344 | 2,733 |
| 21-22 | 198 | 468 | 776 | 717 | 316 | 2,475 |
| 31-32 | 203 | 499 | 801 | 670 | 319 | 2,499 |
| Net | -5 | +31 | +25 | -47 | +3 | +24 |
| Change | 2.3% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% |
What it means
During the COVID-19 pandemic period there was a significant decline in both the federal institutional and community supervision populations. While the community supervision population is projected to decrease over a 10-year horizon, it appears that by 2031-32 the day and full parole populations will be lower whereas the statutory release population will be roughly the same.
For more information
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Prepared by: Larry Motiuk and Ben Vuong