Pandemic era impacts on provisional federal residency forecasts
Research Highlights: Pandemic era impacts in 10-year population forecasts were evidenced for community residency.
Publication
No RIB-22-22
2023
Research in Brief - PDF
Why we are doing this study
Over the course of two recent fiscal years (2020-21 and 2021-22), marked by the COVID-19 pandemic era, the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) experienced an unprecedented decline in the federal community supervision (-903 or 9.6%) populationFootnote 1. A pause occurred in the annual forecasting exercise and in 2022 new 10-year community supervision population projections were estimated to fiscal year-end 2031-32.Footnote 2
What we did
Weekly snapshots of community residency counts from 1990-91 to year-end 2021-22 was derived from CSC's Offender Management System. On 29 March 2022, residency was a condition for a total count of 2,555 or 30% of those 8,503 recorded to be on community supervision. More specifically, 1,396 (54.6%) were on Day Parole, 58 (2.3%) were on Full Parole with residency, 803 (31.4%) were on Statutory Release with residency and 298 (11.7%) were on Long Term Supervision with residency. The Community residency projections for day parole, full parole with residency, statutory release with residency and long term supervision with residency were estimated to 2031-32 for men and women combined. SAS / ETS software was used for analyzing univariate time series data and to select the best-fitting model.
What we found
As tabled below, on 29 March 2022, the actual count on community residency was 2,555 a decline of -116 or 4.3% over the pandemic period from 2,671. For 2031-32, the 10-year forecast for community residency is estimated to be 2,386, a decrease by 2031-32 of -169 or 6.6%. With the exception of the Atlantic region, all others are projected to decline.
| Year | Atlantic | Quebec | Ontario | Prairies | Pacific | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19-20 | 230 | 560 | 749 | 594 | 538 | 2,671 |
| 21-22 | 208 | 519 | 788 | 525 | 515 | 2,555 |
| 31-32 | 228 | 450 | 771 | 455 | 482 | 2,386 |
| Net | +20 | -69 | -17 | -70 | -33 | -169 |
| Change | 9.6% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% |
What it means
For the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic period there was a significant decline in both the federal institutional and community supervision populations. Notwithstanding the community supervision population is projected to decrease over a 10-year horizon, it appears that by 2031-32 those requiring residency will be fewer.
For more information
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Prepared by: Larry Motiuk and Ben Vuong