Post-pandemic Provisional Federal Security Level Forecasts
Research Highlights: Post-pandemic changes in 10-year population forecasts were manifested for men across maximum, medium and minimum security.
Why we are doing this study
Every year, the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) updates its provisional federal population forecasts using a robust methodology developed decades ago. However, over the course of two recent fiscal years (2020-21 and 2021-22), marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, CSC experienced an unprecedented trend break in the historical time series with a major decline in the federal custody (-1,392 or 10.1%) populations.Footnote 1 Consequently, a pause had occurred in the forecasting exercise during the pandemic era. Then, in 2022 new
10-year in-custody security level provisional projections were estimated to fiscal year-end.Footnote 2
Publication
What we did
A database of weekly snapshots of institutional counts from 1990-91 to year-end 2022-23 was derived from CSC's Offender Management System. Security level projections for maximum-, medium, and minimum-security were estimated only for men as the women security level distributions were deemed too low for forecasting models. SAS/ETS software was used for analyzing univariate time series data and to select the best-fitting model.
What we found
As tabled below, for men in-custody on 29 March 2023, the actual count in maximum security was 1,596, while a slight increase and change in direction post pandemic. For 2032-33, the 10-year forecast for men in maximum-security is estimated to be 1,693, an increase of 94 or 5.9%. With the exception of the Quebec and Prairies regions, all others are projected to grow.
In relation to medium-security, at fiscal year-end 2022-23 the actual count was 6,883, also a relatively large increase over one year post pandemic. By year-end 2032-33, the medium security population is estimated to be 7,325, an increase of 442 or 6.4%. With the exception of the Pacific region, all others are projected to increase.
With respect to minimum-security, at fiscal year-end 2022-23 the actual count was 2,006, also a substantial increase over one year post pandemic period. By year-end 2031-32, the minimum population is estimated to be 2,340, a substantial Increase of 334 or 16.7%. All regions are projected to increase.
| Maximum | Atl. | Que. | Ont. | Pra. | Pac. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21-22 | 139 | 416 | 269 | 433 | 333 | 1,590 |
| 22-23 | 132 | 428 | 321 | 391 | 327 | 1,599 |
| 32-33 | 135 | 403 | 436 | 342 | 377 | 1,693 |
| Net | +3 | -25 | +115 | -49 | +50 | +94 |
| Change | 2.3% | 5.8% | 35.8% | 12.5% | 15.3% | 5.9% |
| Medium | Atl. | Que. | Ont. | Pra. | Pac. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21-22 | 584 | 1,411 | 1,793 | 2,004 | 810 | 6,602 |
| 22-23 | 744 | 1,464 | 1,893 | 1,967 | 815 | 6,883 |
| 32-33 | 811 | 1,627 | 1,969 | 2,163 | 755 | 7,325 |
| Net | +67 | +163 | +76 | +196 | -60 | +442 |
| Change | 9.0% | 11.1% | 4.0% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% |
| Minimum | Atl. | Que. | Ont. | Pra. | Pac. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21-22 | 148 | 313 | 474 | 665 | 203 | 1,803 |
| 22-23 | 139 | 331 | 588 | 733 | 215 | 2,006 |
| 32-33 | 169 | 403 | 688 | 828 | 252 | 2,340 |
| Net | +30 | +72 | +100 | +95 | +37 | +334 |
| Change | 21.6% | 21.8% | 17.0% | 13.0% | 17.2% | 16.7% |
What it means
Although pandemic period saw a significant decline in the federal men in-custody population, it appears that the institutional population is quickly rebounding back to pre-pandemic levels. While the men in-custody is projected to increase over a 10-year horizon, it appears that by 2032-33 the maximum-, medium-, and minimum-security men populations will have grown.
For more information
For questions and/or more information, please email the Research Branch. You can also visit the Research Publications section for a full list of reports and one-page summaries.
Prepared by: Larry Motiuk and Ben Vuong
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