Post-pandemic Provisional Federal Community Status Forecasts
Research Highlights: Post-pandemic changes in 10-year population forecasts were evidenced across day, full parole and statutory release.
Why we are doing this study
Over the course of two recent fiscal years (2020 to 2021 and 2021 to 2022), marked by the COVID-19 pandemic era, the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) experienced an unprecedented decline in the federal community supervision (-903 or 9.6%) population1. Consequently, a pause occurred in the annual forecasting exercise. Then, in 2022 new 10-year community supervision population projections were estimated to fiscal year-end 2031 to 2032.2
Publication
What we did
Weekly snapshots of community supervision counts from 1990 to 1991 to year-end 2022 to 2032 was derived from CSC’s Offender Management System. Community status projections for day parole, full parole, and statutory release were estimated to 2032 to 2033 for men and women combined. SAS / ETS software was used for analyzing univariate time series data and to select the best-fitting model.
What we found
As tabled below, on 29 March 2023, the actual count on day parole was 1,471 an increase of 75 or 5.4% over the previous year from 1,396. For 2032 to 2033, the 10-year forecast for day parole is estimated to be 1,470, a negligible decrease of 1. With the exception of the Atlantic and Prairie regions, all others are projected to decline and the total on day parole is estimated to be slightly above.
In relation to full parole, at fiscal year-end 2022 to 2023 the actual count was 4,036, a decline of -94 or 2.3% over the previous year from 4,130. By year-end 2032 to 2033, the full parole is estimated to be 3,910, a projected decrease of 126 or 3.1%. All regions are projected to decrease by 2032 to 2033.
With respect to statutory release, at fiscal year-end 2022 to 2023 the actual count was 2,318, a decline of -157 or 6.3% over the previous period from 2,475. By year-end 2032 to 2033, the statutory release population is estimated to be 2,240, a decrease of 78 or 3.4%. With the exception of the Atlantic region, all others by 2032 to 2033 are projected to decrease.
Federal Community Status Forecasts to 2032 to 2033
Day Parole |
Atl. |
Que. |
Ont. |
Pra. |
Pac. |
Total |
21 to 22 |
136 |
259 |
423 |
297 |
281 |
1,396 |
22 to 23 |
123 |
317 |
378 |
343 |
310 |
1,471 |
32 to 33 |
131 |
312 |
375 |
347 |
309 |
1,470 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net |
+8 |
-5 |
-3 |
+4 |
-1 |
-1 |
Change |
6.5% |
1.6% |
0.8% |
1.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
Full Parole |
Atl. |
Que. |
Ont. |
Pra. |
Pac. |
Total |
21 to 22 |
474 |
963 |
1,237 |
840 |
616 |
4,130 |
22 to 23 |
451 |
983 |
1,191 |
817 |
594 |
4,036 |
32 to 33 |
442 |
942 |
1,139 |
793 |
593 |
3,910 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net |
-9 |
-41 |
-52 |
-24 |
-1 |
-126 |
Change |
2.0% |
4.2% |
4.4% |
2.9% |
0.2% |
3.1% |
Statutory Release |
Atl. |
Que. |
Ont. |
Pra. |
Pac. |
Total |
21 to 22 |
198 |
468 |
776 |
717 |
316 |
2,475 |
22 to 23 |
172 |
447 |
780 |
661 |
258 |
2,318 |
32 to 33 |
178 |
424 |
742 |
643 |
249 |
2,240 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net |
+6 |
-23 |
-38 |
-18 |
-9 |
-78 |
Change |
3.5% |
5.1% |
4.9% |
2.7% |
3.5% |
3.4% |
Note: Regional and Total forecasts are run separately so numbers will vary.
What it means
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic period there was a significant decline in both the federal institutional and community supervision populations. While the community supervision population is still projected to decrease over a 10-year horizon, it appears that relative to 2022 to 2023 by 2032 to 2033 the day parole and full parole populations as well as the statutory release populations will be lower.
For more information
Please e-mail the Research Branch. You can also visit the Research Publications section for a full list of reports and one-page summaries.
Prepared by: Larry Motiuk and Ben Vuong
Footnotes
1 Pandemic Era Impacts on the Federal Supervision Populations: RIB 22-05;
2 Pandemic Era Impacts on Provisional Federal Population Forecasts: RIB 22-19
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