Annex 6: Key studies referenced in the report

Key Finding(s)

• Over time, there is a natural delay of 10 to 12 months between Unemployment Rate (UR) and LTUR cycles. The LTUR fluctuates significantly more on a monthly basis than the UR.
• By gender, men had a higher LTUR than women in 62 of the 68 quarters of the reference period. In addition, the gender gap was more pronounced during the 2008‑09 recession and the oil crisis, but was smaller during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that industry factors could explain gender differences.
• In terms of age group, the older population (55+ years of age) had the highest LTUR in all 68 quarters of the reference period. Over the years, the older population accounted for an increasing share of the LTU. While this group's share of labour force and unemployed increased over the years, its share of LTU increased at an even higher rate. This may be linked to factors surrounding changing skill demands and skill mismatches in older individuals.
• Among provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador and Ontario have consistently shown high rates of LTUR during the reference period. Alberta and Saskatchewan have had high LTURs since the oil crisis of the mid-2010s.

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Author(s), Year

ESDC: Labour Market Information Directorate, 2024

Objective(s)

This study investigates the job search methods of Canadian unemployed workers, understands the determining factors behind these methods, and examines their effectiveness in terms of re-employment from 2015 to 2022.

Key Finding(s)

The most preferred job search methods of Canadian job seekers have mainly remained the same, but they have embraced more diversified strategies over time.

• Between 2015 and 2022, the top 3 job search methods were (i) looking at job ads, (ii) contacting employers directly, and (iii) answering job ads.
• From 2015 to 2022, the proportion of job seekers employing lower levels of job search intensity diminishes. For instance, the percentage of individuals utilizing a single method decreased from 43.3% to 32.9%, whereas those employing 3 methods increased from 15.9% to 20.8%.

Job search methods and job search intensity vary by socio-demographic characteristics.

• Gender differences were observed in job search methods, with fewer women than men contacting employers directly. Younger individuals, notably those aged 15-44, demonstrated higher job search intensity by combining multiple methods. Additionally, higher educational attainment was associated with increased job search intensity.

The most effective job search methods for all job searchers are checking with unions and contacting employers directly.

• Checking with unions and contacting employers directly are associated with the highest probability of success, increased likelihoods of 4.5% and 3.4%, respectively.
• The likely effectiveness of various job search methods differs based on EI eligibility status. Some practical techniques, such as answering job ads and contacting private employment agencies are not associated with a higher likelihood of success for those eligible for EI.

Availability

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Author(s), Year

ESDC: Employment Insurance Policy Directorate, 2024

Objective(s)

This study examines the impacts of the 2 different sets of EI temporary measures introduced in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on access to EI benefits and level of additional income support provided to workers, and estimates the additional cost generated by the EI temporary measures.

Key Finding(s)

During the first set of EI temporary measures (claims established September 27, 2020 to September 25, 2021):

• 12.7% of regular claims and 9.6% of special benefit claims would not have been able to qualify without the temporary measures.
• 64.6% of regular claims and 53.7% of special benefit claims had a higher weekly benefit rate than what they would have received without the temporary measures.
• 45.4% of all regular claims used more weeks of regular benefits than what they would have been entitled to without the temporary measures; 22.5% of all regular claims exhausted the 50 weeks of regular benefits.

During the second set of EI temporary measures (claims established September 26, 2021 to September 24, 2022):

• 13.3% of regular claims and 5.2% of special benefit claims would not have been able to qualify without the temporary measures.
• 9.5% of regular claims and 9.0% of special benefit claims benefitted from the minimum $300 weekly benefit rate measure (claims established between September 26, 2021 and November 20, 2021).

The total estimated additional cost for the main temporary measures is $20.6B: $19.3B for the first set of measures and $1.3B for the second set of measures.

• The largest additional cost is associated with the minimum $500 weekly benefit rate measure with $9.9B for regular claims and $933M for special benefits claims. The maximum 50 weeks of regular benefits measure has an additional cost of $4.6B.

Availability

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Key Finding(s)

• The share of FS recipients has decreased from 6.0% in 2007 to 2.0% in 2022. Adjusting the maximum net family income threshold for inflation would increase the share of claimants by 2.2 percentage points (p.p.) on average per year over the study period (from 1.5 p.p. in 2007 to 2.9 p.p. in 2022).
• Potential new recipients would be more likely to be older, male, have fewer children, work in the manufacturing and construction industries and be less likely to be single.
• The average weekly FS top-up has increased from $40 in 2007 to $43 in 2022. If FS was adjusted for inflation, the average weekly FS benefit would have increased to $46 in 2022. The average FS benefits would increase the most for women, recipients starting with sickness or maternity/parental benefits, recipients who were single, recipients under 30 years old, recipients in the Service industry, and recipients residing in the Atlantic provinces.
• On average, only 51.8% of claimants with children under Low-Income Measures were eligible to receive the FS. This share decreased over the study period, from 61.0% in 2007 to 30.7% in 2021. If the threshold was adjusted for inflation, the share of claimants with children under the LIM eligible to the FS would increase to 61.8% in 2021.

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Author(s), Year

ESDC: Evaluation Directorate, 2021

Objective(s)

This study examines the characteristics of employers and employees who take part in the Supplemental Unemployment Benefit (SUB) Program and their utilization of Employment Insurance benefits.

Key Finding(s)

• Between 2008 and 2017, the number of firms with an active registered SUB plan increased from 5,714 to 7,782-an annual average of around 6,800 active firms-which represents a little over 0.5% of all firms in Canada.
• Registered SUB plans for illness, injury or quarantine account for around 63% of all plans while SUB plans for temporary stoppage of work, training or plans where there are a combination of top-up plans account for around 10%, 7% and 20% respectively.
• Overall, EI claims which receive top-up payments through registered SUB plans account for around 3% of all EI claims or between 40,000 and 60,000 claims per year. However, the analysis found that only 13% of EI claims from firms with registered SUB plans received top-up payments.
• Claimants who receive top-up payments for regular benefit claims are more likely to return to the same firm after a claim as compared to those who worked for non-SUB firms. A positive relationship is observed between job tenure and SUB claim whereby individuals tend to stay with an employer longer if they are part of a SUB firm.

Availability:

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Author(s), Year

ESDC: Evaluation Directorate, 2024

Objective(s)

This study examines the effect of the elimination of the provisions that new entrants and re-entrants (NEREs) were subject to prior to July 3, 2016.

Key Finding(s)

• Before the end of the provisions, there were about 100,000 NERE claimants who had 910 insurable hours or more per year and approximately 3,000 claimants who had less (based on the administrative data).
• In comparison, from 2017 to 2019, the number of NERE claimants with at least 910 insurable hours substantially decreased. This could indicate a decrease in the number of hours worked by some NERE claimants after the end of the provisions.
• In general, compared to non-NERE claimants and seasonal claimants, NERE claimants were slightly younger, had a lower probability to have been working in unionized employment before their claim, and were more likely to be single.
• NERE claimants with less than 910 insurable hours were more likely to be women and had a lower level of education compared to NERE claimants with 910 insurable hours and more.
• Additional EI regular benefits paid (from 2017 to 2019) associated with the end of the NERE provisions were estimated to be around $155M to $230M annually, using various assumptions. Over a 10-year period, this could represent about one-third to two-thirds of the $3.2B initially estimated at the time of the amendment.
• A statistical analysis shows that the probability of re-claiming EI regular benefits at least once within the 5 years following an initial EI regular claim was not significant for laid-off workers with around 490 prequalifying hours.

Availability

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Author(s), Year

ESDC: Employment Insurance Policy Directorate, 2024

Objective(s)

This study examines the extent to which part-time ROEs are used to establish EI claims for regular benefits.

Key Finding(s)

• On average, there were 8.4 million job separation incidences with an ROE issued in the Canadian workforce per year over the 2001‑2022 period. Among them, 61.1%, or 5.1 million, were associated with a part-time job.
• Valid reason: Among the 5.1 million part-time ROEs per year, more than one third (34.8%, or 1.8 million) were due to short of work (or layoff), compared to 51.7% among full-time ROEs.
• Sufficient insurable hours: Among the 1.8 million layoff part-time ROEs, about 43.0% have sufficient hours, compared to 78.9% layoff full-time ROEs with sufficient insurable hours:
• About one quarter (25.4%) had sufficient insurable hours on their own and 17.6% didn't have sufficient insurable hours on their own but had other valid ROEs to consolidate to reach sufficient combined insurable hours in the qualifying period.
• Among the 5.1 million part-time ROEs, about 8.5% were used to establish EI regular claims. In terms of eligible part-time ROEs, 56.5% were used to establish EI regular claims, compared to 47.1% of eligible full-time ROEs used to establish EI regular claims.
• Over time, the share of part-time ROEs over all ROEs trended up. The share of part-time ROEs that were eligible to be used to establish EI regular claims decreased. The share of part-time ROEs that were used to establish EI regular claims decreased.
• The share of part-time ROEs that were eligible and that were used to establish EI regular claims exhibited counter-cyclical patterns: they increased at the onset of 2008/09 recession and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Availability

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Author(s), Year

ESDC: Employment Insurance Policy Directorate, 2024

Objective(s)

This study provides a profile of the part-time workforce and how it has evolved over the 1976‑2021 period, as well as a brief analysis of the Employment Insurance take-up among part-time workers.

Key Finding(s)

• Between 1976 and 2021, the number of part-time workers grew from 0.8 million to 2.1 million. The growth in the number of part-time workers was faster than that of full-time workers. In 2021, part-time workers represented 12.9% of total employment.
• The share of part-time workers among total employment exhibited counter-cyclical patterns, with the exception of the COVID-19 pandemic where the part-time share decreased as economic lockdowns hit the part-time workforce hardly.
• The part-time share for women has always been higher than that for men, however, the gender gap had been gradually closing.
• Over time, less workers had worked part-time involuntarily. In 2021, 32.0% of part-time workers were working part-time involuntarily, down from 41.5% in 1997.
• In 2021, the services-producing sectors accounted for 91.8% of the part-time workforce, with the Accommodation and food services industry having the highest part-time share over all employed in the industry (32.1%).
• Part-time workers were more likely to work in occupations at lower skill levels. However, since 1987, part-time workers shifted from lower skill occupations to higher skill and management occupations.
• The part-time share of youth was the most volatile in all economic downturns and during the pandemic, since they were more likely to work in part-time jobs (25.4%), and usually worked in lower-skilled occupations in services sectors.
• Since 2000, the EI take-up rate has been consistently lower for individuals who separated from part-time jobs than that of those who separated from full-time jobs, mainly because they work less hours. The EI take-up rate decreased from 6.8% in 2000 to 4.6% in 2019, compared to a 24.3% average for those who separated from full-time jobs.

Availability

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Author(s), Year

ESDC: Employment Insurance Policy Directorate, 2023

Objective(s)

This study examines the use of the Skills Boost pilot since its inception in 2018 and how participants compared to EI Part II non-apprentices and EI regular claimants overall.

Key Finding(s)

• From 2018 to 2022, 3,420 long-tenured workers got permission from Service Canada to continue receiving their EI regular benefits while pursuing self-funded full-time training under the Skills Boost initiative. This represents around 0.3% of long-tenured workers claiming EI regular benefits each year. They collected a total of $53.9 million in EI benefits over the 4 fiscal years examined.
• When comparing Skills Boost participants to EI Part II non-apprentices (EI regular benefit claimants who got permission under the Section 25 of the EI Act to continue receiving EI benefits while being in full-time training):
• Skills Boost participants are generally older. By definition a long-tenured worker has to have worked several years, which could partly explain the age difference among the 2 groups.
• The gender breakdown is similar between the 2 groups. In contrast, there is a higher share of women in both groups than among the overall EI regular claimants.
• In terms of regions, there are relatively fewer Skills Boost participants from the Atlantic provinces, while they are relatively more participants from Alberta.
• Participants came from a large variety of sectors. However, Manufacturing, Construction, and Retail trade industries accounted for the highest shares of participants for both groups.
• In terms of income one-year before claiming EI, Skills Boost participants had, on average, significantly higher employment income. By definition, they have worked several years which could partly explain their higher employment income.

Availability

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Author(s), Year

ESDC: Evaluation Directorate, 2022

Objective(s)

This evaluation assesses the Employment Insurance (EI) maternity and parental benefits for employed workers in terms of access, usage, effects, and program delivery from January 2006 to December 2019.

Key Finding(s)

• From 2006 to 2019, close to 72% of female parents and 81% of male parents were covered by the EI program. Of them, about 90% were eligible for maternity and parental benefits. These rates were lower than those observed under the Québec Parental Insurance Plan, which has a lower entrance requirement.
• The participation rate of male parents was relatively low over the study period (below 13%). However, early results indicate that the recent changes to parental benefits significantly increased the rate. The rate increased from 13.6% in 2016 to 18.1% in 2019. This rate was significantly lower than the one observed for male parents under the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan, which has more generous benefits.
• The vast majority (85%) of new parental benefit claimants opted for standard parental benefits. Those who opted for extended parental benefits were more likely to be high-income earners, have higher family income, in couples, working in large organizations, and receiving a top-up.
• Following recent policy changes to parental benefits, the sharing of parental benefits increased from 14.5% in 2017 to 19.9% in 2019. However, key informants still believe that employers' perceptions on parental leave tend to differ by gender. This is due to a cultural stigma within the workplace attached to men taking leave.
• More female claimants than male claimants served the waiting period in 2019 (159,000 and 25,000 respectively). This is because female claimants typically access maternity benefits first. As a result, a greater number of female than male claimants (14,100 compared to 1,800) had their first few weeks of benefits clawed back. This was due to earnings during the waiting period.
• Claimants who have lost their job before the birth/adoption of their child were less likely to access their full parental benefit entitlements. This is due to the 50-week maximum rule when regular and special benefits are combined. On average, each year of the studied period, 3,300 female claimants were impacted by the 50-week rule. This was compared to less than 500 male claimants. This is due to the combination of regular, maternity and/or parental benefits.
• Longer maternity and parental benefits duration increased the likelihood for female claimants to work for the same employer after their parental leave, while the likelihood decreased for their partners. However, for all claimants, the likelihood of having higher future employment income decreased the longer they claimed benefits.
• Overall, the delivery (application process) of EI maternity and parental benefits was deemed effective. There was limited awareness of potential impacts on businesses of the recent changes.

Availability

This report is available at: Evaluation of the Employment Insurance Maternity and Parental Benefits - Canada.ca

Author(s), Year

ESDC: Evaluation Directorate, 2018

Objective(s)

The report describes the impact of the 2016 extension of the maximum duration on compassionate care benefits usage, and presents a socio-economic profile of individuals who applied for and received the benefits.

Key Finding(s)

• In 2015‑16, most compassionate care applicants were caring for their mother or father (58.1 %), followed by a spouse or partner (27.5%).
• On average, 8.7 weeks of benefits were paid in 2015‑16 compared to 4.8 in 2010‑11.

• Approximately one third of compassionate care applicants did not receive benefits. The main reason for not receiving the benefits was that the applicants received other employment insurance benefits, followed by the absence of the medical certificate.
• Applicants in British Columbia and Territories were statistically significantly more likely to have their applications approved.
• Multivariate analysis suggests that the probability of not using all weeks available to the claimants is mainly explained by the mortality of care recipients. However, the impact of the mortality on this probability is mitigated by the extension of the benefits duration from 6 to 26 weeks.

Availability

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Author(s), Year

ESDC: Evaluation Directorate, 2024

Objective(s)

This study informs the characteristics of individuals who had their EI premiums refunded from 2006 to 2021 based on the fixed $2,000 threshold set in 1997. It also provides the profile of individuals who would have received a refund had the fixed threshold been indexed based on inflation or the lowest provincial minimum wage.

Key Finding(s)

• While the total number of individuals with employment income steadily increased from 2006 to 2021, the number of individuals who were eligible for the EI premium refund decreased. As a result, the share of workers eligible for the EI premium refund decreased from 4.2% in 2006 to 3.1% in 2021. Furthermore, the average refund amount decreased from $18 in 2006 to $15 in 2021 as a result of the EI premium rate decreasing over this period.
• Since 2006, the average age of low-income earners eligible for the EI premium refund has increased. The analysis also showed that if the $2,000 threshold had been indexed for inflation, younger low-income earners would have benefited the most from its indexation. In addition, a higher proportion of individuals with low total income as well as individuals with a spouse with low total income would have received the EI premium refund.
• In terms of the characteristics that effect the probability of an individual being eligible for the EI premium refund based on the simulated inflation and minimum wage indexed thresholds, the regression analysis found:
• Low-income earners aged under 20 were 2.8 percentage points more likely to be in the inflation group and 3 percentage points more likely to be in the minimum wage group compared to the current group.
• Students were 3.8 percentage points more likely to be in the inflation group and 6.6 percentage points more likely to be minimum wage group compared to the current group.
• Low-income earners who paid union dues and who worked in regions with a higher unemployment rate were more likely to be in either the inflation or minimum wage group compared to the current group.

Availability

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Author(s), Year

Office of the Chief Actuary, 2022

Objective(s)

The purpose of this report is to provide the Commission with all the information prescribed under section 66.3 of the EI Act. Pursuant to this section, the Chief Actuary shall provide the Commission with a report that sets out: i) the forecast premium rate for the following year and a detailed analysis in support of the forecast; ii) the calculations performed for the purposes of sections 4 and 69 of the EI Act; iii) the information provided under section 66.1; and iv) the source of the data, the actuarial and economic assumptions and the actuarial methodology used.

Key Finding(s)

• The 2023 Maximum Insurable Earnings (MIE) was $61,500 or a 2.0% increase from the 2022 MIE of $60,300.
• The 2023 estimated cost savings to the EI program that are generated by employer sponsored qualified wage-loss plans were $1,345 million.

Availability

This report is available at: 2023 Actuarial Report - Employment insurance premium rate (osfi-bsif.gc.ca)

Author(s), Year

ESDC: Evaluation Directorate, 2024

Objective(s)

This study informs the profile of the long-term unemployed (LTU) and examines the likelihood of EI regular claimants becoming LTU. It assesses the impact of EI-funded skills training on LTU.

Key Finding(s)

• Overall, the proportion of EI regular claimants becoming LTU is 4%.
• Using marginal effect from regression model estimation, older women (+24.7 p.p.), older men (+22.5 p.p.), Indigenous individuals (+10.3 p.p.), and those with weaker labour market attachment (+10.4 p.p) are more likely to become LTU. The likelihood also increased during the 2008 recession (+5.1 p.p).
• Previous participation in Labour Market Development Agreements (LMDA) interventions reduce the risk of becoming LTU by about 2 p.p.
• Participation rates in LMDA Skills Development (SD) intervention are higher for LTU (7%) than EI regular claimants (3%).
• Net impact analysis results show that, in the 4-year period following the receipt of SD interventions, relative to similar non-participants, LTU participants saw an average annual increase of about $5,710 in employment income and an increase of about 21 p.p. in incidence of employment.

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