Historical Christmas snowfall data
Will your Christmas be white and snowy?
Check the Environment and Climate Change Canada weather forecast. Since the weather forecast covers the next seven days, you can get the forecast for Christmas Day starting on December 19.
For those who can't wait, Environment and Climate Change Canada has analyzed 65 years of weather records for 45 major centres across Canada, and calculated the probability of having a white snow-covered Christmas Day.
The following table charts the amount of snowfall recorded for major cities across Canada from 1955-2019. From this, a probability can be made to determine if a white Christmas will occur for the current year.
| City | % Chance (65 years) 1955-2019 |
% Chance Recent 1998-2019 |
% Chance Early 1963-1984 |
Change in frequency (%) (Recent-Early) |
Perfect Christmas (%) 1955-2007 |
Snow depth Recent 1998-2019 |
Snow depth Early 1963-1984 |
Change in snow depth (cm) (Recent-Early) |
Number of green Christmases Recent 1987-2019 |
Number of green Christmases Past 1955-1986 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon | 94 | 95 | 95 | 0 | 28 | 17 | 14 | 3 |
3 | 1 |
| Barrie* | 75 | 68 | 94 |
-26 |
n/a | 17 | 17 |
0 |
9 |
n/a |
| Buttonville** | 53 | 50 | 58 |
-8 |
n/a | 5 |
3 |
2 |
15 |
n/a |
| Calgary | 60 |
64 | 73 | -9 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
-1 |
13 | 13 |
| Charlottetown | 77 | 55 | 91 | -36 | 48 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 12 | 3 |
| Edmonton | 88 | 86 | 100 | -14 | 20 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 6 | 2 |
| Fredericton | 74 | 45 |
86 | -41 | 30 | 6 |
21 | -15 | 14 | 3 |
| Goose Bay | 98 | 95 | 100 | -5 | 53 | 44 | 66 | -22 | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Prairie | 86 | 82 | 100 | -18 | 26 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 6 |
2 |
| Halifax | 54 | 41 | 64 | -23 | 24 | 2 | 10 |
-8 | 18 | 11 |
| Hamilton | 60 | 59 |
64 | -5 |
26 | 6 |
5 | 1 |
13 | 13 |
| Iqaluit | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 51 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamloops | 51 | 50 | 55 | -5 |
25 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 17 | 15 |
| Kelowna | 63 | 55 | 77 | -22 | 26 | 5 | 10 |
-5 | 14 | 10 |
| Kenora | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 43 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 0 | 0 |
| Kitchener-Waterloo | 68 | 55 | 77 | -22 | 45 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 12 |
4 |
| Lethbridge | 49 |
45 |
55 | -10 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
0 |
17 | 16 |
| London | 66 | 50 | 77 |
-27 | 33 | 8 | 10 |
-2 | 14 | 8 |
| Medicine Hat | 57 | 55 | 73 | -18 | 17 | 4 | 7 |
-3 | 16 | 13 |
| Moncton | 74 | 68 | 82 | -14 | 40 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 10 | 7 |
| Montreal | 75 | 68 |
82 | -14 | 25 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 10 |
6 |
| Ottawa | 80 | 73 | 82 | -9 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 7 |
6 |
| Prince George | 91 | 86 |
100 | -14 | 40 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 5 |
1 |
| Penticton | 31 | 27 |
36 | -9 | 11 | 3 | 5 |
-2 | 23 | 22 |
| Quebec | 97 | 91 | 100 | -9 | 60 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 2 | 0 |
| Regina | 88 |
82 |
91 | -9 |
38 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 6 |
2 |
| Saint John | 58 |
41 | 68 |
-27 | 36 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 18 | 9 |
| Sarnia | 57 | 36 |
82 | -46 | 19 | 4 | 9 |
-5 | 21 | 6 |
| Saskatoon | 92 | 82 | 100 | -18 | 22 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 5 |
0 |
| St. John's | 66 | 68 | 55 | 13 | 24 | 9 |
9 | 0 |
10 | 12 |
| Sault Ste Marie*** | 90 |
86 | 95 | -9 | 69 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 5 | 1 |
| Stephenville | 82 | 73 | 91 | -18 | 64 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 9 | 3 |
| Sudbury | 94 | 91 | 100 | -9 | 46 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 3 | 1 |
| Sydney | 58 | 45 | 68 | -23 | 46 | 5 | 11 |
-6 | 17 | 10 |
| Thunder Bay | 97 | 95 | 100 | -5 | 38 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 2 | 0 |
| Timmins | 98 | 95 | 100 | -5 | 46 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 1 | 0 |
| Toronto City | 45 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 9 | 5 | 5 |
0 |
21 | 15 |
| Toronto (GTA) | 51 | 41 | 64 | -23 | 13 | 5 | 6 |
-1 |
19 | 13 |
| Vancouver | 9 |
9 |
9 |
0 |
4 | 3 | 2 |
1 |
29 | 30 |
| Victoria | 11 | 14 | 9 |
5 |
6 | 2 | 1 |
1 |
28 | 30 |
| Whitehorse | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 27 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 0 | 0 |
| Wiarton | 80 | 73 | 86 |
-13 | 54 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 8 |
5 |
| Windsor | 45 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
16 |
| Winnipeg | 98 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 1 |
1 | 0 |
| Yellowknife | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 27 | 26 | 23 | 3 |
0 | 0 |
| Averages | 72% | 66% | 79% | 12% | 31% | 11 | 16 | -5 | 11 | 7 |
* Data compiled from a shorter period: 1980-2019
** Data compiled from a shorter period: 1986-2019
*** Data compiled from a shorter period: 1961-2019
Definitions
- % Chance: probability of a white Christmas (snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning at 7 a.m. EST) for full period of 65 years from 1955-2019
- % Chance Recent Period: for children today based on period 1998-2019 (22 years)
- % Chance Early Period: for parents today when they were children based on period 1963-1984 (22 years)
- Perfect Christmas: snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning and snow in the air sometime Christmas day, i.e., a measurable snowfall on Christmas based on period 1955-2007
- Snow depth Recent Period: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1998 to 2019
- Snow depth Early Period: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1963 to 1984
- Number of green Christmases: for the 33-year period 1987-2019 inclusive
- Number of green Christmases: for the 32-year period 1955-1986 inclusive
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