Historical Christmas snowfall data

Will your Christmas be white and snowy?

Chance of white christmas

Check the Environment and Climate Change Canada weather forecast. Since the weather forecast covers the next seven days, you can get the forecast for Christmas Day starting on December 19.

For those who can't wait, Environment and Climate Change Canada has analyzed 65 years of weather records for 45 major centres across Canada, and calculated the probability of having a white snow-covered Christmas Day.

The following table charts the amount of snowfall recorded for major cities across Canada from 1955-2019. From this, a probability can be made to determine if a white Christmas will occur for the current year.

Amount of snowfall recorded (in centimetres) for major cities across Canada from 1955 - 2019
City % Chance
(65 years) 1955-2019
% Chance
Recent

1998-2019
% Chance
Early

1963-1984
Change in
frequency (%)
(Recent-Early)
Perfect
Christmas
(%)
1955-2007
Snow depth
Recent

1998-2019
Snow depth
Early

1963-1984
Change in
snow depth (cm)
(Recent-Early)
Number of
green Christmases

Recent
1987-2019
Number of
green Christmases

Past
1955-1986
Brandon 94 95 95 0 28 17 14 3
3 1
Barrie* 75 68 94
-26
n/a 17 17
0
9
n/a
Buttonville** 53 50 58
-8
n/a 5
3
2
15
n/a
Calgary 60
64 73 -9 4 5 6
-1
13 13
Charlottetown 77 55 91 -36 48 8 16 -8 12 3
Edmonton 88 86 100 -14 20 12 17 -5 6 2
Fredericton 74 45
86 -41 30 6
21 -15 14 3
Goose Bay 98 95 100 -5 53 44 66 -22 1 0
Grand Prairie 86 82 100 -18 26 17 23 -6 6
2
Halifax 54 41 64 -23 24 2 10
-8 18 11
Hamilton 60 59
64 -5
26 6
5 1
13 13
Iqaluit 100 100 100 0 51 16 20 -4 0 0
Kamloops 51 50 55 -5
25 5 12 -7 17 15
Kelowna 63 55 77 -22 26 5 10
-5 14 10
Kenora 100 100 100 0 43 20 33 -13 0 0
Kitchener-Waterloo 68 55 77 -22 45 7 9 -2 12
4
Lethbridge 49
45
55 -10 6 6 6
0
17 16
London 66 50 77
-27 33 8 10
-2 14 8
Medicine Hat 57 55 73 -18 17 4 7
-3 16 13
Moncton 74 68 82 -14 40 9 21 -12 10 7
Montreal 75 68
82 -14 25 8 16 -8 10
6
Ottawa 80 73 82 -9 35 18 17 1 7
6
Prince George 91 86
100 -14 40 14 20 -6 5
1
Penticton 31 27
36 -9 11 3 5
-2 23 22
Quebec 97 91 100 -9 60 24 43 -19 2 0
Regina 88
82
91 -9
38 12 14 -2 6
2
Saint John 58
41 68
-27 36 4 12 -8 18 9
Sarnia 57 36
82 -46 19 4 9
-5 21 6
Saskatoon 92 82 100 -18 22 10 13 -3 5
0
St. John's 66 68 55 13 24 9
9 0
10 12
Sault Ste Marie*** 90
86 95 -9 69 17 24 -7 5 1
Stephenville 82 73 91 -18 64 15 22 -7 9 3
Sudbury 94 91 100 -9 46 18 21 -3 3 1
Sydney 58 45 68 -23 46 5 11
-6 17 10
Thunder Bay 97 95 100 -5 38 11 23 -12 2 0
Timmins 98 95 100 -5 46 26 48 -22 1 0
Toronto City 45 41 50 -9 9 5 5
0
21 15
Toronto (GTA) 51 41 64 -23 13 5 6
-1
19 13
Vancouver 9
9
9
0
4 3 2
1
29 30
Victoria 11 14 9
5
6 2 1
1
28 30
Whitehorse 100 100 100 0 27 18 27 -9 0 0
Wiarton 80 73 86
-13 54 13 18 -5 8
5
Windsor 45 50 50 0
4 4 3 1 20
16
Winnipeg 98 100 100 0 11 15 14 1
1 0
Yellowknife 100 100 100 0 27 26 23 3
0 0
Averages 72% 66% 79% 12% 31% 11 16 -5 11 7

* Data compiled from a shorter period: 1980-2019
** Data compiled from a shorter period: 1986-2019
*** Data compiled from a shorter period: 1961-2019

Definitions

  • % Chance: probability of a white Christmas (snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning at 7 a.m. EST) for full period of 65 years from 1955-2019
  • % Chance Recent Period: for children today based on period 1998-2019 (22 years)
  • % Chance Early Period: for parents today when they were children based on period 1963-1984 (22 years)
  • Perfect Christmas: snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning and snow in the air sometime Christmas day, i.e., a measurable snowfall on Christmas based on period 1955-2007
  • Snow depth Recent Period: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1998 to 2019
  • Snow depth Early Period: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1963 to 1984
  • Number of green Christmases: for the 33-year period 1987-2019 inclusive
  • Number of green Christmases: for the 32-year period 1955-1986 inclusive
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