Historical Christmas snowfall data

Will your Christmas be white and snowy?

Chance of white christmas

Check the Environment and Climate Change Canada weather forecast. Since the weather forecast covers the next seven days, you can get the forecast for Christmas Day starting on December 19.

For those who can't wait, Environment and Climate Change Canada has analyzed 63 years of weather records for 45 major centres across Canada, and calculated the probability of having a white snow-covered Christmas Day.

The following table charts the amount of snowfall recorded for major cities across Canada from 1955-2017. From this, a probability can be made to determine if a white Christmas will occur for the current year.

Amount of snowfall recorded (in centimetres) for major cities across Canada from 1955 - 2017
City % Chance
1955-2017
% Chance
now

1994-2017
% Chance
before

1965-1984
Change in
frequency
over 30 yr (%)
Perfect
Christmas

1955-2007
Snow depth
now

1994-2017
Snow depth
past

1965-1984
Change in
snow depth
over 30 yr (cm)
Number of
green Christmases

1986-2017
Number of
green Christmases

1955-1985
Brandon 94 95 95 0 28 16 12 4 3 1
Barrie* 74 65 n/a n/a n/a 18 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Buttonville** 56 55 n/a n/a n/a 6 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Calgary 59 60 70 -10 4 5 5 0
14 12
Charlottetown 78 55 90 -35 48 8 15 -7 11 3
Edmonton 87 85 100 -15 20 12 17 -5 6 2
Fredericton 76 50 85 -35 30 7 22 -16 12 3
Goose Bay 98 95 100 -5 53 42 64 -22 1 0
Grand Prairie 86 80 100 -20 26 17 23 -6 7 2
Halifax 54 40 65 -25 24 2 9 -7 19 10
Hamilton 62 65 65 0 26 7 5 2 12 12
Iqaluit 100 100 100 0 51 17 20 -3 0 0
Kamloops 52 55 55 0 25 5 11 -6 16 14
Kelowna 63 55 75 -20 26 5 8 -3 14 9
Kenora 100 100 100 0 43 21 31 -10 0 0
Kitchener-Waterloo 69 55 73 -18 45 7 9 -2 9 4
Lethbridge 51 50 55 -5 6 6 5 1 16 15
London 68 55 80 -25 33 8 9 -1 12 8
Medicine Hat 57 55 75 -20 17 4 6 -2 16 11
Moncton 73 65 80 -15 40 9 21 -12 10 7
Montreal 76 70 85 -15 25 8 17 -9 9 6
Ottawa 81 75 85 -10 35 19 18 1 6 6
Prince George 92 90 100 -10 40 15 20 -5 4 1
Penticton 32 30 35 -5 11 3 4 -1 22 21
Quebec 97 90 100 -10 60 25 45 -20 2 0
Regina 90 90 95 -5 38 13 14 -1 4 2
Saint John 60 45 70 -25 36 4 12 -8 16 9
Sarnia 59 40 85 -45 19 4 7 -3 20 6
Saskatoon 94 85 100 -15 22 10 12 -2 4 0
St. John's 65 65 50 15 24 8 9 -1 10 12
Sault Ste Marie*** 89 85 95 -10 69 17 24 -7 5 1
Stephenville 81 70 90 -20 64 15 22 -7 9 3
Sudbury 94 90 100 -10 46 17 21 -4 3 1
Sydney 59 45 65 -20 46 5 9 -4 16 10
Thunder Bay 97 95 100 -5 38 11 23 -12 2 0
Timmins 98 95 100 -5 46 26 48 -22 1 0
Toronto City 46 45 50 -5 9 5 4 1 20 14
Toronto (GTA) 52 45 65 -20 13 5 5 0 18 12
Vancouver 10 10 5 5 4 3 1 2 27 29
Victoria 11 15 5 10 6 2 0 2 27 29
Whitehorse 100 100 100 0 27 18 28 -10 0 0
Wiarton 81 75 90 -15 54 14 18 -4 7 5
Windsor 46 55 50 5 4 4 3 1 19 15
Winnipeg 98 100 100 0 11 15 12 3 1 0
Yellowknife 100 100 100 0 27 26 24 2 0 0
Averages 73% 68% 79% 11% 31% 11 16 -5 10 7

* Data has a shorter period: 1980-2015
** Data has a shorter period: 1986-2015
*** Data has a shorter period: 1961-2015

Definitions

  • % Chance: probability of a white Christmas (snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning at 7 a.m. EST) for full period of 63 years
  • % Chance now: for children today based on period 1996-2017
  • % Chance before: for parents today when they were children based on period 1965-1984
  • Perfect Christmas: snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning and snow in the air sometime Christmas day, i.e., a measurable snowfall on Christmas based on period 1955-2007
  • Snow depth now: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1994 to 2017
  • Snow depth past: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1965 to 1984
  • Number of green Christmases: for the 31-year period 1986-2017 inclusive
  • Number of green Christmases: for the 32-year period 1955-1985 inclusive
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