Historical Christmas snowfall data

Will your Christmas be white and snowy?

Chance of white christmas

Check the Environment and Climate Change Canada weather forecast. Since the weather forecast covers the next seven days, you can get the forecast for Christmas Day starting on December 19.

For those who can't wait, Environment and Climate Change Canada has analyzed 61 years of weather records for 45 major centres across Canada, and calculated the probability of having a white snow-covered Christmas Day.

The following table charts the amount of snowfall recorded for major cities across Canada from 1955-2015. From this, a probability can be made to determine if a white Christmas will occur for the current year.

Amount of snowfall recorded (in centimetres) for major cities across Canada from 1955 - 2015
City % Chance
1955-2015
% Chance
now

1994-2015
% Chance
before

1965-1984
Change in
frequency
over 30 yr (%)
Perfect
Christmas

1955-2007
Snow depth
now

1994-2015
Snow depth
past

1965-1984
Change in
snow depth
over 30 yr (cm)
Brandon 93 90 95 5 28 18 12 -6
Barrie* 72 60 n/a n/a n/a 16 n/a n/a
Buttonville** 53 50 n/a n/a n/a 5 n/a n/a
Calgary 57 55 70 15 4 5 5 1
Charlottetown 77 50 90 40 48 8 15 7
Edmonton 87 80 100 20 20 12 17 5
Fredericton 75 45 85 40 30 7 22 16
Goose Bay 98 95 100 5 53 37 64 28
Grand Prairie 85 80 100 20 26 17 23 7
Halifax 56 40 65 25 24 2 9 7
Hamilton 61 55 65 10 26 6 5 0
Iqaluit 100 100 100 0 51 18 20 1
Kamloops 51 50 55 5 25 5 11 5
Kelowna 62 50 75 25 26 4 8 4
Kenora 100 100 100 0 43 22 31 9
Kitchener-Waterloo 67 55 73 18 45 6 9 3
Lethbridge 49 45 55 10 6 6 5 -1
London 67 50 80 30 33 7 9 2
Medicine Hat 56 50 75 25 17 5 6 2
Moncton 72 60 80 20 40 10 21 11
Montreal 75 65 85 20 25 8 17 9
Ottawa 80 70 85 15 35 17 18 2
Prince George 92 90 100 10 40 15 20 5
Penticton 30 25 35 10 11 3 4 2
Quebec 97 90 100 10 60 23 45 22
Regina 92 90 95 5 38 14 14 0
Saint John 59 40 70 30 36 4 12 8
Sarnia 59 35 85 50 19 4 7 3
Saskatoon 95 85 100 15 22 10 12 2
St. John's 64 60 50 -10 24 8 9 1
Sault Ste Marie*** 89 80 95 15 69 16 24 8
Stephenville 80 65 90 25 64 15 22 7
Sudbury 93 90 100 10 46 19 21 3
Sydney 59 40 65 25 46 5 9 5
Thunder Bay 97 90 100 10 38 12 23 11
Timmins 98 95 100 5 46 29 48 18
Toronto City 44 35 50 15 9 4 4 0
Toronto (GTA) 51 35 65 30 13 4 5 2
Vancouver 10 15 5 -10 4 4 1 -3
Victoria 10 15 5 -10 6 3 0 -2
Whitehorse 100 100 100 0 27 19 28 9
Wiarton 80 70 90 20 54 13 18 5
Windsor 44 45 50 5 4 4 3 -1
Winnipeg 98 95 100 5 11 15 12 -3
Yellowknife 100 100 100 0 27 26 24 -2

* Data has a shorter period: 1980-2015
** Data has a shorter period: 1986-2015
*** Data has a shorter period: 1961-2015

Definitions

  • % Chance:  probability of a white Christmas (snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning at 7 a.m. EST) for full period of 61 years
  • % Chance now:  for children today based on period 1996-2015
  • % Chance before:  for parents today when they were children based on period 1965-1984
  • Perfect Christmas:  snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning and snow in the air sometime Christmas day, i.e., a measurable snowfall on Christmas based on period 1955-2007
  • Snow depth now:  average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1994 to 2015
  • Snow depth past: average depth of snow on the ground (cm) on Christmas morning from 1965 to 1984
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