CIMM - Temporary Resident Targets - December 4, 2025

Key Messages

• Temporary residents play an important role in supporting Canada’s economy and shaping our cultural fabric. However, the number of people working and studying temporarily in Canada has to align with the evolving needs of the country’s labour market, housing supply, and welcoming capacity.
• The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan takes a balanced approach that meets labour market needs, supports Canadian workers, protects access to housing and healthcare, while keeping immigration levels sustainable.
• Overall arrival targets for new temporary residents have been reduced from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026 and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
• These targets support the government’s commitment to reduce the share of non-permanent residents in Canada to less than 5% of the population by the end of 2027.
• Across all three years, close to 60% of new arrivals will be workers with the remaining 40% being international students. This reflects a focus to support the labour market while also attracting the best talent in the world to complement Canada’s workforce and help build our economy.

Key Facts and Figures

• Temporary resident targets under the 2026-2028 Levels Plan have been set to achieve the government’s commitment of reducing the Canada’s temporary population to less than 5% by the end of 2027.
• To advance this important commitment, overall arrival targets for new temporary residents have been reduced from 673,650 to 385,000 in 2026 and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
• In 2026, targets for workers under the 2026-2028 Levels Plan include:
  • 170,000 in the International Mobility Program (IMP); and
  • 60,000 in the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program.
• Student arrivals decrease from 305,000 to 155,000 in 2026 and 150,000 in 2027 and 2028, across all three years.
• The balance between workers and students reflects the need to support the labour market while attracting top talent from across the world to help build Canada’s economy.
• Across 2026, 2027 and 2028 workers make up close to 60% of all TR arrivals and are prioritized to help meet critical labour market needs and to support Canada’s ambitious agenda for talent attraction.
• In recognition of the role temporary workers play in some sectors of the economy, the Plan will also consider industries and sectors impacted by tariffs and the unique needs of rural and remote communities.
• Early action to reduce arrivals for temporary residents have been successful – new temporary foreign worker arrivals are down by approximately 48% this year and new international student arrivals also declined by approximately 60% compared to 2024.
• These measures, combined with reduced TR targets, mean that Canada is on track to achieve the less than 5% commitment by the end of 2027.

Who is included in TR Targets?

• The Levels Plan sets targets for new temporary resident arrivals, and more specifically, for international students and temporary workers admitted under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program or the International Mobility program.
• Targets are set for new study and work permits only (i.e., new people arriving as temporary residents each year). They do not include those who stay through a permit extension or change their status while in Canada to a different permit, to avoid double counting individuals.
• Targets exclude short term visitors with temporary resident visas (TRV) and electronic travel authorizations (eTA), and seasonal workers (who remain in Canada for less than 270 days) because these workers do not remain in Canada for a long period of time or at the end of the calendar year, and are not included in Statistics Canada’s year-end population estimates.
• Asylum claimants are not part of the Levels Plan, as the Government cannot control admissions volumes in the same manner it does for most immigration programs. To achieve the less than 5% commitment, estimated asylum claimant numbers are taken into account as part of the methodology and calculations used to set targets for students and workers.
• To set the TR target and achieve the less than 5% goal, the department developed a methodology to assess a number of variables. These include exit rates such as when permits expire or when people transition to PR status, permit renewal rates, approval rates, and other factors.
• International student targets for new arrivals align with the 2026 international student permit issuance target.

Arrivals and stock in 2025:

• There has been 308,880 fewer temporary resident arrivals between January and September 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
  • 150,220 fewer students arrived
  • 158,660 fewer workers arrived
• 100,580 new students arrived between January and September 2025.
• 171,815 new workers arrived between January and September 2025.
• Total permit holders in Canada as of September 30, 2025 include:
  • 473,860 people who hold a study permit
  • 1,494,900 people who hold a work permit
  • 251,300 people who hold a both a work and study permit.

Temporary Resident Reduction Measures

• Throughout 2024 and early 2025, a series of measures were introduced to decrease the number international students and temporary foreign workers coming to Canada.
• Under the International Mobility Program, the following program changes were introduced. As of January 21, 2025:
  • For family members of international students, access to open work permits was limited to spouses of those enrolled in master’s programs of 16 months or more, doctoral programs, certain professional or pilot programs.
  • For family members of temporary workers, access to open work permits is now limited to spouses of temporary workers employed in management or professional occupations (e.g., C-suite executives, scientists), or in sectors or jobs linked to government priorities.
• In fall 2024, the eligibility criteria for Post-Graduation Work Permits was also updated to better align the program with economic objectives. Changes included introducing minimum language requirements for all applicants and a field of study requirement for all graduates except those completing bachelor’s, master’s or doctoral degree programs.
• To stabilize the international student population, an intake cap was also established on most study permit applications in January 2024. A further 10% reduction from the 2024 study permit issuance target was introduced in 2025, decreasing the cap from 485,000 to 437,000 permits issued.
• To improve program integrity and ensure the Temporary Foreign Worker Program remains responsive to Canada labour market needs, Employment and Social Development Canada also introduced a number of tightening measures, including:
  • expanding employer recruitment obligations to include asylum seekers;
  • reducing LMIA validity periods and limiting employment durations;
  • reducing the cap from 20% to 10% of low-wage temporary workers that can be employed at a worksite;
  • refusing to process applications in census metropolitan areas with an unemployment rate of 6% or higher; and
  • raising the minimum wage threshold to access the High-Wage Stream, which has stricter requirements.

Macroeconomic Context:

• Despite a recent loosening in the labour market, long-term sectoral occupational shortages remain significant – particularly in roles requiring post-secondary education in health care, education and construction– due to persistent skills gaps and other structural factors (e.g. population aging).
  • Temporary residents play a role in filling these gaps, particularly when there are pressing needs.

Rising Unemployment Rates: Pronounced Impacts on Youth and Newcomers

• Canada’s economy showed early signs of recovery in 2025, but trade disruptions reversed momentum, leading to a rise in unemployment to 7.1% by August 2025. Youth and newcomers were disproportionately affected, with youth unemployment reaching 14.5% and newcomer unemployment remaining elevated at 11.4%.
• The current economic environment (slow growth from overall economic uncertainty) impacting the labour demand in the main industries (retail trade, accommodation and food services) where youth and newcomers typically find employment.

Temporary Foreign Worker Labour Market Trends:

• Temporary foreign workers (TFWs) are increasingly concentrated in low-paying and low-skilled sectors, with notable reliance in industries such as agriculture and accommodation and food services.
• Within the agricultural sub-sector, the workforce is dependent on newcomers (40% of workers in the sector are immigrants), whereby this labour force is critical to food security.
• Statistic Canada recent studies shows roughly 55% of international students are working very few or no hours.
• Recent Bank of Canada research shows that both the number of immigrants and the characteristics of those arriving play a critical role in shaping labour market outcomes. Findings show that a shift toward younger, less experienced temporary residents from lower-income countries could have widened wage gaps between temporary and Canadian-born workers and lowered aggregate wages.
• During consultations for Levels Planning, employers and communities noted that temporary workers can also help complement domestic workforce, including by selecting skillset that is otherwise unavailable in Canada.

Regional, Rural vs Urban Impacts:

• National labour market indicators can obscure significant regional variation. For example, in trades and transport, Western Canada is experiencing tighter labour market conditions compared to regions like Ontario and northeastern Quebec.
• The NPR population more than doubled between 2021 and 2024 in Quebec and B.C, with similar rates not seen in other provinces. These differences in immigrant labour market participation across regions and communities underscore the need for tailored approaches that reflect local economic conditions and support more balanced and effective integration across the country.
  • During consultations for levels planning, rural, remote and Northern communities all underscored the positive impact and necessity of temporary workers.

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Table 1: At-a-Glance Stock of Permit Holders, Asylum Claimants, and Protected Persons and Related Groups as of September 30th, 2025

Source of Data : Understanding student and temporary worker numbers in Canada - Canada.ca and IRCC Custom data tables IRCC, Custom Data Table, extracted on October 14th, 2025

Notes:

The data does not include information on dependents of permit holders without permits, as this is an estimate group produced by Statistics Canada. On July 1st, 2025, Statistics Canada estimated there were 3,024,216 non-permanent residents in Canada, including 143,951 dependents of permit holders and individuals with Temporary Residents Permits. The next Statistics Canada’s quarterly estimates release will be on December 17, 2025, for October 1st, 2025.

The total population is categorized by primary immigration status. Individuals can have multiple status/permits. Asylum Claimants, and Protected Persons and Related Groups who hold a study or work permit are counted within this population only.

The data in table 1 (Permit Holders, and Asylum Claimants, Protected Persons and Related Groups Data) are reported using different methodology and should not be compared to data in table 2 (Work Permit Holders) and table 3 (Study Permit Holders).

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• Work Permits issued to support or grow economic interests are identified as “Economic” in the table.
• 44% of all work permit holders as of September 30, 2025, consist of workers who fill a specific labour market need and contribute to planned government priorities.
• “Other” categories (56%) achieve a more diverse range of objectives (e.g., family reunification, humanitarian/crisis response, support for asylum claimants, etc.) and work permits are issued so that individuals may support themselves during their extended stay in Canada.

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Annex C: Study Permit Holders In Canada

• As of November 8, 2024, students are allowed to work off campus up to 24 hours per week without a work permit.

Study Permit Holders by Study Level on September 30, 2025

Source: IRCC, RDB, Temporary Residents, September 30, 2025 data

Notes:

The table shows individuals who held a study permit at the last day of the month. These individuals could also be part of the Asylum Claimants, and Protected Persons and Related Groups, and/or who may also hold a work permit.

The data in table 1 (Permit Holders, and Asylum Claimants, Protected Persons and Related Groups Data) are reported using different methodology and should not be compared to data in table 2 (Work Permit Holders) and table 3 (Study Permit Holders).

Annex D: Information on Average Work Permit Duration

Notes:
— Assessment complete on work permit holders selected between 1 January 2015 and 30 June 2025

— If client held simultaneous status while holding a work permit the permit, the work permits were still considered for calculation purposes. No exemptions were made.
— The following rules were applied to determine the average:
— Rule 1 - Work Permit Continuity Rules :
— a) If two permits overlap in time, they are considered part of the same continuous period.
— b) If a new permit was received within 90 days after the previous permit expires, it is also considered part of the same continuous period.
— Rule 2 - New Permit Period:
— a) If the gap between permits exceeds 90 days after IRCC receiving an application for a new permit and the previous permit’s expiry, this starts a new permit period.
— Rule 3 Selecting a length of time to determine the average:
— a) Length selected to calculated between 1 January 2015 and 30 June 2025

Source: CDO, August 31, 2025

Note: There is about a 2-year difference with ESDC’s assessment. Given ESDC noted in their methodology that they count the total period, including returns home (see below excerpt), this may contribute to differences.

From ESDC (methodology excerpt):

• To estimate the length of stay in Canada, we examine the time period from their most recent work permit in 2024 or 2025 to the arrival of their first work permit (via the TFW Program). For example, a temporary foreign worker who arrived and worked for the first time on June 20th, 2018 and had another work permit expire on June 20th, 2025, would be counted as having been in Canada (via the TFW Program) over a period of 5 years. It is possible that they were not physically in Canada for the entire 7 years, as they may have left the country in between work permits or were not able to come to Canada to work during the pandemic.

Note: This information was prepared to support a Cabinet discussion on Levels, and is based on data as of August 31, 2025.

Annex E: Non-permanent residents in Quebec

Quebec Control Over Work/Study Permits

• Quebec exercised ~51% selection authority over new work/study permits issued between January 1 and June 30, 2025 (42.3% direct; 8.2% indirect).
• This is down from 58.2% in 2024 (47.5% direct; 10.7% indirect) and 60.3% in 2023 (48.7% direct; 11.6% indirect).

Core Figures (as of June 30, 2025)

• Figures below should not be summed, as categories overlap. Individuals with both study and work permits are included under Work Permit Holders, and some asylum claimants also hold work (IMP) or study permits. The total of 514,150 represents the unique number of temporary residents (non-permanent residents) in Quebec as of June 30, 2025, after removing duplicates across categories.
• Work permit holders: 387,030
  • Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): 82,900
    • All were directly selected by Quebec
  • International Mobility Program (IMP) : 304,130
    • 30,515 were directly selected by Quebec; 87,100 indirectly selected
    • ≈186,510 are under Other IMP categories not controlled by Quebec (Asylum claimant with work permit, IEC).
  • The total of Work permit holders includes individuals who also hold a study permit (≈50,705).
• International Students (ISP) : 67,325
  • Directly selected by Quebec
  • Excludes those who also hold a work permit (counted under work permit holders)
• Asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups with or without work and/or study permits: 191,600
  • May also hold work permit and study permits.
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  • Please note:
    • We counted Protected Persons in Canada with last known address in Quebec.
    • Includes asylum claimants with a first-instance refugee positive decision only
    • Our count thereby excludes:
    • Individuals with Pre-Removal Risk Assessment-positive (i.e., individuals who would at risk if returned to their country of origin)
    • Refugee Appeal Determination (RAD) (i.e., decisions under appeal at IRB)
    • Limitations:
    • Preliminary counts; methodology under development
    • Deceased not removed (no vital stats)
• Asylum Claim Approval Rates (Quebec)
  • Of the asylum claims finalized by the Refugee Protection Division (RPD) between January 2020 and June 2025 for individuals with a reported address in Quebec:
    • 50% were granted refugee status
    • 50% were not granted refugee status
  • In 2025 (January to June) specifically:
  • 49% of finalized claims were granted refugee status
  • 51% were not granted refugee status

IRCC vs. Statistics Canada Methodology (Summary): STC counts dependents without permits, applies grace periods between permits, and redistributes missing addresses by census; IRCC only counts valid permits and classifies missing addresses as “not stated”

Note: This information was prepared to support the Cabinet Discussion on Levels, and is based on data as of June 30, 2025.

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