CIMM – Immigration Levels Plan – November 25, 2024

Key Facts and Figures

• The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, sets permanent resident (PR) targets, and for the first time, also includes temporary resident (TR) targets for a new holistic approach towards managed migration.
• The Levels Plan reduces overall immigration targets to support the economy while reducing pressure on services and housing.
• Targets for new TR arrivals were developed to achieve the objective of reducing the proportion of TRs to 5% of the total population by the end of 2026.
• TR targets were calculated by assessing a number of factors, such as the number of individuals expected to depart Canada in each program (e.g., when a permit expires), individuals transitioning to PRs, approval rates for each program, estimated renewal rates and other factors.
• For TRs, targets are set at 673,650 in 2025, 516,600 in 2026, and 543,600 in 2027. Targets will capture new arrivals only, which will provide the number of new workers and students entering Canada each year.
• For PRs, targets are set at 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. Supporting the Canadian economy continues to be a key priority of this Plan. The economic category represents the largest proportion of admissions each year, reaching approximately 59% in 2025, 61% in 2026 and 62% by 2027.
• More than 40% of overall PR admissions would be from students or workers already in Canada to alleviate pressure on communities' capacity to welcome newcomers.
• These reductions are expected to result in a marginal population decline in 2025 and 2026. By setting targets for new TR arrivals, we anticipate that the number of people living in Canada temporarily will decline by 445,901 in 2025; 445,662 in 2026, and then modestly increase in 2027 by about 17,000.
• The plan establishes ambitious targets for French-speaking PR admissions: 8.5% of total admissions for 2025 (29,325), 9.5% (31,500) for 2026 and 10% (31,500) for 2027.

Key Achievements

• Canada welcomed over 471,000 new PRs in 2023, up from 437,600 in 2022.
• In 2023, more than 19,636 (4.7%) French-speaking immigrants settled in Francophone communities outside Quebec, exceeding the established target of 4.4%.
• Canada resettled more than 47,000 refugees from over 80 countries in 2023 and recently met a number of humanitarian commitments, including:
  • Welcoming 40,000 vulnerable Afghans by 2024 (a total of 50,365 were welcomed to Canada since August 2021); and
  • Resettling 8,000 Government Assisted Refugees from the Middle East, and 10,000 from Africa.
• Canada continues to make progress on a number of existing humanitarian commitments, including:
  • Welcoming 4,000 people from the Americas by 2028, in support of the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection;
  • 15,000 individuals from the Americas via PR and TR pathways;
  • The permanent resident pathway launched in October 2023 for Ukrainians with family members in Canada;
  • 10,000 Ghurs and other Turkic Muslims;
  • Two pathways to permanent residence to facilitate the immigration of certain Hong Kong residents; and
  • Various other commitments, including working towards resettling vulnerable Rohingya, human rights defenders, and LGBTQI+ people.

Looking Forward

• We are well positioned to hit the 8.5% target next year based on:
  1. The share (and volume) of Francophones in the landing inventory, as well as processing inventory;
  2. The high volume of Francophones in the Express Entry candidate pool, stemming from an increase in profile creation over the course of 2024.
     • The pool of eligible candidates (as well as pool replenishment) is high enough to support 2025 Invitation to Apply objectives based on the mix of the 2025 Cabinet targets.
• The Department will continue to conduct French-proficiency rounds that will aim to support 2025 and 2026 targets.

Key Messages

• Immigration continues to be a vital source of Canada's economic sustainability and now contributes to nearly 100% of the labour force growth, including for occupations that face persistent structural shortages - such as health care and trades - and for emerging industries which are key to advancing Canada's goal of a growing and resilient economy.
• Despite its importance, a recent surge in immigration volumes, including rapid growth in the volume of TRs, has resulted in increases in population which has exacerbated existing pressures on services and infrastructure across the country, from housing and health care to education and social supports. Canada's economy and labour market have also softened, showing higher rates of unemployment for youth and newcomers.
• The 2025-2027 Levels Plan responds to these pressures and will help ensure that Canadians and newcomers continue to prosper. The Plan also continues to recognize the importance of supporting Francophone immigration, family reunification, and upholding Canada's humanitarian tradition to protect and resettle the world's most vulnerable populations.
• This Plan is expected to result in marginal population decline in 2025 and 2026 before returning to population growth in 2027. Under the Plan, gross domestic product per capita growth is expected to increase, housing affordability will improve, and the unemployment rate will decrease.

Responsive

Levels Planning

• The Immigration and Refugee Protection Act requires that the immigration minister table the Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration, including the Immigration Levels Plan (Levels Plan) for the following year, by November 1, or within 30 sitting days if a House of Parliament is not sitting on November 1.
• By setting targets and planning ranges for each of the immigration categories, the Government of Canada establishes priorities among economic, social, and refugee objectives. Levels planning then enables the Department and its partners to allocate processing, security, and settlement resources accordingly.

Temporary Resident Levels

• In March, the government announced that Canada's 2025-2027 Immigration Levels plan would include, for the first time, targets for TRs, intended to reduce their share of Canada's population to 5% by the end of 2026.
• The targets include two major groups - international students and temporary workers admitted under either the International Mobility Program (IMP)---including those who are fleeing wars or natural disasters and arrived under special programs---or the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP).
• The International Mobility Program is comprised of a collection of streams that do not require a labour market test. While some streams are based on reciprocity with partner countries, there is no Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) required, and work permits can either be employer-specific or open. Examples of streams under the IMP include:
  • Post Graduation Work Permits
  • Spousal Work Permits (i.e. for spouses of international students and temporary workers)
  • Work permits issued under the International Experience Canada program
  • Work permits issued to those who come to Canada under a temporary public policy in response to an international crisis (e.g. Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel program for Ukrainian nationals)
• The Temporary Foreign Worker Program is based on employer demand to fill specific jobs when no Canadians or permanent residents are available to do the work. An LMIA is required for all work permits issued under the program and permits are closed, meaning they are tied to a sole employer. Under the TFWP, positions are approved based on LMIAs. The TFWP is jointly administered by Employment and Social Development Canada, which processes the LMIA, and IRCC, which is responsible for issuing work permits. Examples of streams under the TFWP include:
  • The Primary Agriculture Stream, which includes both seasonal (up to eight months of work in a calendar year) and non-seasonal (up to two years of work) agriculture workers.
  • The TFWP General Stream, which includes Low-Wage (e.g., fish and meat processing, accommodation, food services, etc.), High-Wage (e.g., trucking, construction, etc.) and Global Talent (e.g. higher skilled position in Information Technology or STEM) streams.
• Targets under the Levels Plan include new study and work permits only (i.e., new people arriving as TRs each year) and are intended to support further alignment of Canada's immigration system with labour market needs and housing supply.
• Under the targets, the previously-announced international student cap will be maintained, with 305,900 arrivals each year. For workers, the targets are 367,750 arrivals in 2025, 210,700 in 2026 and 237,700 in 2027. The TFWP targets are 82,000 each year (excluding seasonal workers.) The remainder of the worker targets are for the IMP.
• Over the last year, the government has taken concrete actions to bring down TR levels including notably a cap on international students and tightened controls on study permits.
• Minister Boissonnault has also introduced some changes to the low and high-wage streams of the TFWP which are likely to lead to decreased volumes.

Permanent Resident Levels

• The 2025-2027 Levels Plan projects a decrease in overall PR admissions to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027, with the economic category reaching approximately 59% in 2025, 61% in 2026, and 62% by 2027.
• A greater share of economic admissions are allocated under "Federal Economic Priorities" to skilled workers with a focus on critical sectors, such as health care and skilled trades, in recognition of the importance of supporting these critical sectors and labour market needs.
• An emphasis is also put on ensuring that admissions are dedicated to facilitating transition towards to permanent residence for those who are already in Canada as students and workers, such as under the "In-Canada Focus".
• Support for family reunification continues through the family category, with a rate of approximately 24% overall PR admissions in 2025, 23% in 2026 and 22% in 2027.
• Canada's strong and proud tradition of offering protection to those most in need is evident through the resettled refugees and protected persons category rate of 15% of overall PR admissions.
• 2.5% of admissions in 2025 (10,000), 1.8% of admissions in 2026 (6,900) and 1.2% of admissions in 2027 (4,300) are provided to commitments made on humanitarian and compassionate grounds, and/or as part of public policies, such as Sudan, Ukraine, and Hong Kong, over three years.

Setting Targets for Francophone Immigration

• The new Policy makes Francophone immigration a permanent priority at the heart of IRCC's work, strengthening the Department's actions across the immigration continuum for both permanent and temporary residents.
• The Policy supports the integration of ambitious and achievable targets for French-speaking PRs through a proactive evidence-based approach that takes into account operational realities and recommendations from provinces and territories (PTs), Francophone community stakeholders and the Commissioner of Official Languages.
• Immigration is a shared jurisdiction with provincial and territorial governments. Restoring and increasing the demographic weight of Francophone minority communities is an ambitious objective that will require long-term sustainable measures and a reinforced collaboration with all partners, including PTs.

Supplementary Information

• Extensive consultations were conducted for the development of the Levels Plan, including engagement with PTs, partners, stakeholders, and the public. More specifically, engagement efforts included:
  • Provinces and Territories: Engagement with PTs was conducted bilaterally and multilaterally, guided by the Joint Federal-Provincial-Territorial Immigration Levels Consultation Framework, as approved through the Forum of Ministers Responsible for Immigration. Bilateral consultations were held with every province and were conducted in July and August 2024.
  • Under the Canada-Quebec Accord, Quebec (QC) has responsibility for the selection of immigrants destined to the province (except Family Class and in-Canada refugee claimants). The Accord commits the federal government to take into consideration QC's desired levels in all categories. QC's immigration levels plan is established annually.
  • Stakeholder Consultations: The Department conducted its annual consultation survey, which was shared with key stakeholders (business representatives, educational institutions, faith-based organizations, multicultural or ethno-cultural associations, municipalities and regional administrations, settlement or resettlement organizations, etc.). A total of 977 stakeholders completed the survey from the 6,772 invited. This number represents a substantial increase from the 4,780 stakeholders organizations invited in 2023.
  • Virtual Sectoral Roundtable Conversations: Between August and September 2024, the Department organized sectoral roundtables to engage more broadly on levels planning. The roundtables took place virtually and were hosted by either Honorable Marc Miller, Minister of IRC, Deputy Minister Harpreet Kochhar or senior IRCC officials. A total of four virtual roundtables were conducted with urban planners from various cities and towns across Canada, municipal representatives, and economists. Representatives from post-secondary institutions, the business community, labour organizations, and immigrant and asylum claimant/refugee serving organizations were also consulted to gather their input on this year's Levels Plan and their thoughts on reducing TR volumes.
  • Indigenous Peoples: Efforts continued this year to increase the response rate from Indigenous organizations. The Department invited 479 individuals from First Nations, Métis and Inuit serving and/or representing organizations to provide feedback. This is an increase from 280 representatives in 2023.
  • Public Opinion: While public opinion research shows that Canadians still believe that immigrants make important contributions to Canada's economy and society, the proportion of Canadians who believe there are too many immigrants coming to Canada has risen substantially in 2024. On the other hand, some employers, post-secondary institutions, and small/medium sized communities are calling for more immigrants to meet their specific regional, economic and labour needs.