CIMM – Temporary Resident Targets in the Immigration Levels Plan – November 25, 2024

Key Facts and Figures

• The Levels Plan defines a temporary resident as an international student or temporary worker admitted under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program or the International Mobility Program.
• Targets are being set for new study and work permits only (i.e., new people arriving as temporary residents each year). They do not include those who stay through a permit extension or change their status while in Canada to a different permit, as that would double-count people.
• Targets exclude short-term visitors with temporary resident visas (TRV) and electronic travel authorizations (eTA) and seasonal workers because these workers do not remain in Canada for a long period of time or at the end of the calendar year and are not included in Statistics Canada’s year-end population estimates.
• Asylum claimants are not part of the Levels Plan, as the government cannot control admissions volumes in the same manner it does for most immigration programs. To achieve the 5% target, estimated asylum claimant numbers have been taken into account as part of the methodology and calculations used to set targets for students and workers.
• To set the temporary resident (TR) target and achieve the 5% goal announced earlier this year, the Department developed a methodology to assess a number of variables. These include exit rates, such as when permits expire or when people transition to permanent resident (PR) status, permit renewal rates, approval rates, and other factors.
• International student targets for new arrivals align with the previously announced international student cap. Targets for workers include both the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) administered by Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) and the International Mobility Program (IMP) administered by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).

• Over the past year, Canada’s labour market has softened. Between October 2023 and October 2024, unemployment increased from 5.6% to 6.5%, unemployment for youth increased from 10.3% to 12.8%, and unemployment for newcomers increased from 8.3% to 10.8%.
• This is occurring at a time when Canadians continue to struggle with housing affordability, as population growth continues to outpace the growth in housing supply.
• Actions taken to date, such as the student cap, have already resulted in reductions in average rental prices in parts of the country that saw large numbers of international students in recent years. In Vancouver, one- and two-bedroom apartment rental prices are down more than 10%, and in Toronto over 8%. In addition, youth unemployment has been trending downward in recent months, declining from 14.2% to 12.8% between July and October 2024.
• With the introduction of TR targets and related measures to decrease volumes, it is anticipated that the number of people temporarily in Canada will decline by 445,901 in 2025; 445,662 in 2026, and then modestly increase in 2027 by about 17,000.

Key Messages

• In the aftermath of the pandemic, Canada welcomed increasing volumes of TRs to help fill critical labour shortages and address the urgent needs of businesses. This was needed to help stabilize the economy during difficult times.
• However, since then, the economy has evolved, and the labour market has softened. Canada is seeing increases in unemployment, in particular for young people and newcomers.
• Canadians are continuing to struggle with housing affordability and access to healthcare and other key services. That’s why it is important that the immigration system can adapt so that it continues to be responsive to the country’s needs.
• The targets set will keep us on track to meet the 5% objective and support further alignment of Canada’s immigration system with labour market needs and housing supply.
• The Levels planning process, including the TR targets, is informed by evidence, including analysis of the economic and labour market impacts of reductions, the housing impacts of various population growth scenarios, and stakeholder perspectives.
• Going forward, a well-managed and more comprehensive approach to immigration planning will help ensure that everyone—including newcomers—has access to the quality jobs, homes, and supports they need to thrive.

Responsive

Changes to TR Programs

• Over the last year, the government has taken concrete actions to bring down TR levels, including a cap on international students and tightened controls on study permits.
• On September 18, 2024, IRCC announced further limits to open work permit eligibility for the spouses of international students and temporary foreign workers.
• Minister Boissonnault has also introduced changes to the low- and high-wage streams of the TFWP, which are likely to lead to decreased volumes.
• With these changes taken into account, targets for the TFWP are 82,000 each year, providing sufficient space for primary agriculture workers in order to protect Canada’s food security and food supply chain. The remainder of the worker targets are for the IMP.
• IRCC regularly monitors intake volumes for both temporary and permanent residents and works with partners to determine if any adjustments are needed to meet annual targets. It is important that we continue to adapt our immigration system to be responsive to the country’s needs.

Supplementary Information

• The TR levels for each category also include ranges, which provide us with some flexibility to adapt the programming as needed to maintain the 5% target in response to unforeseen circumstances.
• Extensive consultations were conducted for the development of the Levels Plan, including targeted engagement on the TR cap. Stakeholders were broadly supportive of the need to bring down TR levels but cautioned to be sensitive to the impact on the labour market in critical industries facing labour shortages.